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BOIS

Boise State 56 at Virginia 14

UVA
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2015 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDSAFETYFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.2UVA 36.9%Tyler Rausa 51 Yd Field GoalAWAY 17 - HOME 0 · Q1 7:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:53 · Tyler Rausa 51 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Home team on offense−4.3Score differential−2.1Garbage-time factor−1.1Pregame prior−7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:51: T.J. Thorpe 75 Yd pass from Matt Johns (Ian Frye Kick) — UVA win probability +4.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:26: Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +12.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:09: Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 45 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +7.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:19: Tyler Rausa 39 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +3.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:01: Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 30 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +12.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BOIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:48UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:53BOIS 4th & 15 at UVA 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:19BOIS 4th & 19 at BOIS 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:22UVA 4th & 11 at BOIS 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    39.5%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:03BOIS 4th & 16 at UVA 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:45UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:50BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:49UVA 4th & 3 at BOIS 31, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:11BOIS 4th & 2 at UVA 13, up 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.5%−0.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:01BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 29, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:30BOIS 4th & 5 at UVA 37, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    80.1%−1.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:19BOIS 4th & 3 at UVA 22, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.8%−0.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−7.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:08UVA 4th & 8 at BOIS 38, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:54BOIS 4th & 23 at BOIS 35, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:26BOIS 4th & 12 at UVA 28, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:47UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 22, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:15UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 23, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:42BOIS 4th & 8 at UVA 20, up 42
    Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:01UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 34, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:46BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:16BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:51UVA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:26BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:09UVA Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:01BOIS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:00BOIS Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:26BOIS Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
41.9%
Matt Johns pass intercepted for a TD Justin Taimatuia return for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4742% → 42%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
41.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
41.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
41.7%
Matt Johns run for 9 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
41.7%
Nicholas Conte punt for 51 yds , Donte Deayon returns for no gain to the BoiSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1958% → 61%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
41.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 8 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
41.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 1 yd to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+47
41.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 47 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
41.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 20 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
41.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the Virg 2Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1240% → 39%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
39.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 22Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+19
39.0%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Darian Thompson return for 19 yds to the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5FG
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5262% → 63%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
37.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Shane Williams-RhodesSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
37.6%
Thomas Sperbeck pass incomplete to Holden HuffSimilar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-5
38.1%
Brett Rypien sacked by Mike Moore and David Dean for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 34. Brett Rypien fumbled, forced by Mike Moore, recovered by BoiSt Brett Rypien at the Virg 34.Similar
Q1 7:53
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+51
36.9%
Tyler Rausa 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5836% → 41%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.3%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
36.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+75
40.6%
T.J. Thorpe 75 Yd pass from Matt Johns (Ian Frye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:1659% → 59%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
40.6%
Devan Demas run for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 14
OWN 14
0
40.6%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 14
OWN 14
-5
40.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Travis Averill) to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 19
OWN 9
0
40.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for no gain to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 19
OWN 9
+18
41.0%
Sean Wale punt for 51 yds , Maurice Canady returns for 18 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5442% → 41%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
41.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
41.5%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-1
41.2%
Matt Johns sacked by TEAM for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
40.5%
Nicholas Conte punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:1360% → 61%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
40.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 12 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
40.0%
Brett Rypien run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+47
40.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Holden Huff for 47 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
38.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-10
38.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Rees Odhiambo) to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 16
OPP 37
0
38.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 16
OPP 37
0
39.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 16
OPP 37
+54
39.5%
Tyler Rausa 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1039% → 38%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
38.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 2 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
38.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-2
38.3%
Matt Johns sacked by Jabril Frazier for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+5
37.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Virg 42Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
37.9%
Nicholas Conte punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4561% → 61%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
38.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 9 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
38.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-5
38.7%
Brett Rypien sacked by Kwontie Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+3
39.5%
Sean Wale punt for 45 yds , Maurice Canady returns for 3 yds to the Virg 27 VIRGINIA Penalty, Illegal Block (Dominic Sheppard) to the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:5638% → 37%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
37.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 14 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
38.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
37.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+23
37.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 23 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
38.5%
Daniel Hamm run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+2
38.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+3
38.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 3 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+48
36.8%
Ian Frye 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:1463% → 77%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
37.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 22 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
36.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
36.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 11 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
36.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 11 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
35.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 15 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
23.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14SF
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:4427% → 25%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
27.3%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the Virg 10Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-10
25.3%
Matt Johns sacked by Armand Nance for a loss of 10 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:1480% → 82%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
50
+10
20.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 10 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
19.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 19 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
18.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 7 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
18.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-1
18.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 13Similar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
18.0%
Tyler Rausa 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:3620% → 29%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
20.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+16
19.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 16 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
21.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+45
29.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 45 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:4476% → 76%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
24.0%
Kelsey Young run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
23.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 5 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
24.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Shane Williams-RhodesSimilar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 2
OWN 34
-5
24.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
24.5%
Sean Wale punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Maurice Canady at the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18END OF HALF
9 plays · 6 yds · 1:4526% → 23%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
25.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Albert ReidSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
25.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+10
24.7%
Matt Johns run for 10 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
26.1%
Matt Johns run for 3 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-5
25.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Michael Mooney) to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-15
24.6%
Johns, Matt pass incomplete to Mizzell, Taquan, PENALTY VIRGINIA pass interference (Mizzell, Taquan) 15 yards to the VIRGINIA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 27
OWN 23
+3
23.5%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 24
OWN 26
+8
22.9%
Albert Reid run for 8 yds to the Virg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 4:3278% → 86%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
22.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 10 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
22.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
22.0%
Brett Rypien run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
19.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+9
19.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 9 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
19.0%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for 5 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
18.1%
Thomas Sperbeck pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
18.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+8
19.6%
Brett Rypien run for 8 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
17.5%
Kelsey Young run for 3 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+4
17.2%
Kelsey Young run for 4 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
17.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the Virg 22Similar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
13.8%
Tyler Rausa 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5816% → 15%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
15.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 21Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
15.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 3 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+12
14.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 12 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.3%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
14.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 40 Taquan Mizzell fumbled, forced by Tanner Vallejo, recovered by BoiSt Ben Weaver, return for 10 yds to the Virg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
2.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 30 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:382% → 2%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
2.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Evan ButtsSimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
2.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
2.2%
Matt Johns run for no gain to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
2.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 2:0698% → 98%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
2.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 8 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
1.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Holden HuffSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+2
1.9%
Thomas Stuart run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
1.8%
Thomas Stuart sacked by Mike Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 19
OWN 39
0
1.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 19
OWN 39
-4
1.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 23
OWN 35
0
1.7%
Sean Wale punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Olamide Zaccheaus at the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24INT TD
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:482% → 2%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
1.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Ross Burbank) to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
1.2%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+25
1.8%
Matt Johns pass intercepted for a TD by Mercy Maston, returned 25 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:192% → 1%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
1.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 2 yds to the Virg 20 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jackson Matteo) to the Virg 10Similar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 18
OWN 10
+2
2.2%
Daniel Hamm run for 2 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+3
2.0%
Daniel Hamm run for 3 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 13
OWN 15
+14
0.9%
Connor Brewer pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 14 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
0.9%
Connor Brewer pass intercepted Donte Deayon return for 1 yd to the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
0.7%
Devan Demas run for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+5
0.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mike Moore) to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
0.7%
Kelsey Young run for no gain to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
0.7%
Kelsey Young run for 7 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 3
OPP 19
-9
0.6%
Brett Rypien sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+45
0.8%
Tyler Rausa 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
0.4%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 16Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+6
0.4%
Daniel Hamm run for 6 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
0.3%
Connor Brewer pass incomplete to Daniel HammSimilar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
0.3%
Nicholas Conte punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Shane Williams-Rhodes at the BoiSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
0.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 6 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+1
0.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 1 yd to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+64
0.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 64 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
0.3%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+1
0.2%
Connor Brewer run for 1 yd to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+3
0.2%
Connor Brewer pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 3 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
0.2%
Nicholas Conte punt for 36 yds, downed at the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 30DOWNS
5 plays · 45 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+37
0.3%
Thomas Stuart pass complete to Austin Cottrell for 37 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
0.2%
Devan Demas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+3
0.2%
Jack Fields run for 3 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
0.2%
Jack Fields run for no gain to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+6
0.2%
Jack Fields run for 6 yds to the Virg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 31PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 4:240% → 0%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
0.2%
Daniel Hamm run for 1 yd to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
0.1%
Daniel Hamm run for 4 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+9
0.1%
Connor Brewer pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 9 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
0.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Connor Brewer pass incomplete to Daniel HammSimilar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+8
0.1%
Connor Brewer pass complete to Evan Butts for 8 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
0.1%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 37Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-3
0.1%
Connor Brewer sacked by Sam McCaskill and Jabril Frazier for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
0.1%
Connor Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
0.1%
James Coleman punt for 31 yds, downed at the BoiSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:26
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q3 8:01
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 30 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q2 3:09
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 45 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com