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UCLA

UCLA 35 at Boise State 22

BOIS
2023 · Starco Brands LA Bowl · Dec 16, 2023 · SoFi Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:46 · James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 43 yds, downed at the UCLA 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Home team on offense+2.4Score differential+0.4Pregame prior−2.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:33: George Holani 1 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick) — BOIS win probability +8.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:03: Kyle Ford 5 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick) — UCLA win probability +13.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:03: TJ Harden 1 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick) — UCLA win probability +19.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:19: TJ Harden 14 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick) — UCLA win probability +16.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:11: J. Michael Sturdivant 40 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick) — UCLA win probability +6.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:08UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:58BOIS 4th & 6 at UCLA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:42UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:36BOIS 4th & 4 at UCLA 5, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:01BOIS 4th & 7 at UCLA 16, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:27UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 30, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:00BOIS 4th & 1 at UCLA 7, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−2.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−8.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:44UCLA 4th & 2 at BOIS 45, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−2.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:04UCLA 4th & 11 at BOIS 40, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.0%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    36.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:31BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 33, up 9
    Close callPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:46BOIS 4th & 17 at BOIS 29, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−4.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:16BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 30, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:32BOIS 4th & 25 at BOIS 21, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−3.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:12UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 39, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.9%−3.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:31UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 44, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 0:48UCLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:33BOIS Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:03UCLA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:03UCLA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:19UCLA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:11UCLA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:08BOIS Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5257% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.1%
Collin Schlee run for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
43.2%
TJ Harden run for 6 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
43.3%
TJ Harden run for 2 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
43.4%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
43.6%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
43.7%
Will Powers punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:1044% → 46%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.7%
CJ Tiller pass incomplete to Ashton JeantySimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.7%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BOIS 27Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
43.7%
CJ Tiller pass complete to Billy Bowens for 17 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
44.3%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BOIS 46Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+20
44.5%
CJ Tiller pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 5 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Grayson Murphy) to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
44.9%
CJ Tiller pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 14 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
45.2%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the UCLA 19Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+3
45.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
45.5%
CJ Tiller pass incomplete to Prince StrachanSimilar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
45.6%
Jonah Dalmas 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:1654% → 53%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.6%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Kyle Ford for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
45.5%
TJ Harden run for 1 yd to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
46.0%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Bruno Fina) to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
46.4%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Logan LoyaSimilar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
46.6%
Will Powers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by George Holani at the BOIS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 4:0646% → 50%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
45.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
46.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 41Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
46.6%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+45
47.2%
CJ Tiller pass complete to George Holani for 45 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
48.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
48.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the UCLA 5Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
48.3%
CJ Tiller pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
50.2%
Jonah Dalmas 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:4251% → 57%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
49.3%
Collin Schlee run for 17 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
49.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 8 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+50
48.3%
Collin Schlee run for 50 yds to the BOIS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
47.1%
TJ Harden run for 2 yds to the BOIS 6Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
47.3%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 1 yd to the BOIS 5Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
43.5%
Hudson Habermehl 5 Yd pass from Collin Schlee (Blake Glessner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:4746% → 50%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.6%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
45.7%
George Holani run for 12 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
47.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 30 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
48.5%
CJ Tiller pass complete to Riley Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 15
OPP 35
0
47.4%
George Holani run for no gain to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+16
46.5%
George Holani run for 16 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
49.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
49.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
48.5%
CJ Tiller pass incomplete to Prince StrachanSimilar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
50.1%
Jonah Dalmas 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:3451% → 49%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
49.3%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Garrett DiGiorgio) to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
49.5%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Kyle Ford for 6 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
49.5%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Logan LoyaSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
50.3%
UCLA Penalty, Encroachment (Moliki Matavao) to the UCLA 21Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+13
50.6%
Collin Schlee pass complete to TJ Harden for 13 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-4
49.7%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Jaylan Jeffers) to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
50.9%
Will Powers punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:5452% → 64%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
52.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+16
52.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 16 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
54.4%
Tiller, CJ pass incomplete to Bolt, Austin, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Davies, Jaylin) 15 yards to the UCLA16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOIS.Similar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
54.5%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
54.8%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+2
54.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+1
53.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the UCLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
55.9%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.9%
George Holani 1 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9END OF HALF
13 plays · 35 yds · 4:2938% → 35%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
61.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 22 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
60.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to TJ Harden for 1 yd to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+4
60.7%
TJ Harden run for 4 yds to the BOIS 48Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+3
60.6%
Collin Schlee run for 3 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+6
61.7%
Collin Schlee run for 6 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
60.4%
Collin Schlee run for no gain to the BOIS 39 Collin Schlee fumbled, forced by Andrew Simpson, recovered by UCLA Collin SchleeSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
60.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Garrett DiGiorgio) to the BOIS 44Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 15
OPP 44
-7
62.0%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 41 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Carlin) to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 22
OWN 49
+14
63.1%
Collin Schlee pass complete to TJ Harden for 14 yds to the BOIS 37Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 8
OPP 37
-3
61.1%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Colson Yankoff for a loss of 3 yards to the BOIS 40Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
65.0%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2966% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.1%
CJ Tiller pass incomplete to Austin BoltSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the BOIS 32Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
66.2%
CJ Tiller pass complete to Billy Bowens for 1 yd to the BOIS 33Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
66.2%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 3:2834% → 49%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
66.3%
TJ Harden run for 7 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+27
66.1%
TJ Harden run for 27 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
66.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Logan Loya for 5 yds to the BOIS 48Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-5
65.8%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Moliki Matavao) to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+44
66.8%
Collin Schlee run for 44 yds to the BOIS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
64.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 11Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
65.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kyle Ford for 6 yds to the BOIS 5Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
51.2%
Kyle Ford 5 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:1756% → 55%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.2%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BOIS 29Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
56.6%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BOIS 31Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
55.9%
CJ Tiller pass complete to Prince Strachan for 5 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
58.0%
CJ Tiller pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for a loss of 4 yards to the BOIS 32Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
56.7%
CJ Tiller pass incomplete to Austin BoltSimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 14
OWN 32
-3
55.3%
CJ Tiller sacked by Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 3 yards to the BOIS 29Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
54.6%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 43 yds, downed at the UCLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:4344% → 69%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
55.8%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Kyle Ford) to the UCLA 23Similar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 15
OWN 23
-1
56.4%
TJ Harden run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 22Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 16
OWN 22
+9
56.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 9 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+10
57.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kyle Ford for 10 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
53.5%
TJ Harden run for 6 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+10
52.3%
TJ Harden run for 10 yds to the BOIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+39
51.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 39 yds to the BOIS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
50.0%
Anthony Adkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 5Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
50.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Ryan Cragun for 4 yds to the BOIS 1Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.0%
TJ Harden 1 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4737% → 35%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.3%
CJ Tiller pass incomplete to Matt LauterSimilar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
37.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the BOIS 32Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
36.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 30Similar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+16
34.6%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 56 yds , Logan Loya returns for 16 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:5768% → 87%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
32.2%
Ethan Garbers run for 15 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+41
29.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 41 yds to the BOIS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
13.3%
TJ Harden 14 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 2:4720% → 16%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
19.7%
George Holani run for 11 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
20.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 35Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-5
18.6%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (Mason Randolph) to the BOIS 30Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 16
OWN 30
0
18.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 30Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 16
OWN 30
-9
17.1%
CJ Tiller sacked by Grayson Murphy for a loss of 9 yards to the BOIS 21Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 25
OWN 21
+15
16.2%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 54 yds , Logan Loya returns for 15 yds to the UCLA 40 UCLA Penalty, Illegal Block (Joquarri Price) to the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:0186% → 90%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
14.4%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Moliki MatavaoSimilar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
12.9%
TJ Harden run for 8 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
12.1%
TJ Harden run for 1 yd to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+3
11.8%
Ethan Garbers run for 3 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
10.1%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Logan LoyaSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
10.2%
Anthony Adkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
9.5%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
9.9%
Will Powers punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18INT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:1314% → 9%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
14.2%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (Riley Smith) to the BOIS 7Similar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+2
13.9%
CJ Tiller pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 2 yds to the BOIS 9Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 13
OWN 9
0
13.3%
CJ Tiller pass incomplete to Riley SmithSimilar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 13
OWN 9
+26
12.6%
CJ Tiller pass complete to Prince Strachan for 26 yds to the BOIS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
13.3%
Holani, George rush for 5 yards to the BOIS40, PENALTY BOIS holding (Randolph, Mason) 10 yards to the BOIS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+5
11.1%
CJ Tiller pass complete to Billy Bowens for 5 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+4
10.2%
CJ Tiller run for 4 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-11
8.6%
CJ Tiller pass intercepted Alex Johnson return for 11 yds to the BOIS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
1.9%
J. Michael Sturdivant 40 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:034% → 14%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
3.5%
CJ Tiller pass complete to Prince Strachan for 6 yds to the BOIS 31Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
2.7%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
9.2%
George Holani 66 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
13.5%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (Kage Casey) to the UCLA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21END OF GAME
15 plays · 38 yds · 4:3095% → 98%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
5.2%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Garrett DiGiorgio) to the BOIS 48Similar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
5.4%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the BOIS 48Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-1
4.8%
TJ Harden run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 49Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+20
4.0%
Ethan Garbers run for 20 yds to the BOIS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
3.4%
TJ Harden run for 7 yds to the BOIS 22Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+6
3.2%
Anthony Adkins run for 6 yds to the BOIS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
2.2%
Anthony Adkins run for 7 yds to the BOIS 9Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
2.2%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the BOIS 9Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+8
2.1%
TJ Harden run for 8 yds to the BOIS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 3Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:03
TJ Harden 1 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)
-19.1
TD · Q3 0:19
TJ Harden 14 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)
-16.6
TD · Q3 10:03
Kyle Ford 5 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick)
-13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com