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BOIS

Boise State 30 at Colorado State 31

CSU
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:16 · James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 41 yds, downed at the CSU 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Home team on offense−19.6Pregame prior−9.5Score differential−10.3Garbage-time factor−6.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:03: Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:58: Vann Schield run for 5 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 7:06: Jonah Dalmas 29 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +9.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:53: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +24.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Dallin Holker 33 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick) — CSU win probability +77.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:59CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:01CSU 4th & 12 at CSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:25CSU 4th & 7 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:29CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:46CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:45CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:45BOIS 4th & 5 at CSU 32, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.2%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02CSU 4th & 9 at BOIS 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:16BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:23BOIS 4th & 15 at CSU 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−1.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:07CSU 4th & 6 at BOIS 31, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.0%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:56BOIS 4th & 5 at CSU 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.6%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−6.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:06BOIS 4th & 12 at CSU 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−7.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:33BOIS 4th & 21 at BOIS 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:03BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:03BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:58CSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:12BOIS Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:01CSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:53CSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:00CSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−16.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0131% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.8%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
30.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 6 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-11
30.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 11 yards to the CSU 22Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
31.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:5668% → 69%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
31.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 8 yds to the BOIS 40Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+6
31.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
31.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+26
31.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 26 yds to the CSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
31.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the CSU 7Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+4
31.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the CSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0232% → 31%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.5%
Vann Schield run for 4 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
31.6%
Vann Schield run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 28Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
31.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
31.2%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Caleb Goodie) to the CSU 23Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
31.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BOIS 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
30.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 8 yds Riley Smith fumbled, recovered by CSU Buom JockSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
30.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 8 yds Riley Smith fumbled, recovered by CSU Buom JockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2932% → 32%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
32.1%
Peter Montini run for no gain to the CSU 47Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
32.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Peter Montini for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 7
50
0
31.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 7
50
0
31.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 47 yds, downed at the BOIS 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:1169% → 69%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+12
31.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 12 yds to the BOIS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
31.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the BOIS 22Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+14
31.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 14 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
31.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
30.8%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+10
31.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 10 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
30.7%
Taylen Green pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4532% → 32%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
32.0%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
32.0%
Vann Schield run for 6 yds to the CSU 38Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-1
32.5%
Vann Schield run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 37Similar
Q1 1:29
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
31.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 50 yds, downed at the BOIS 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 5:2669% → 77%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
31.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Matt Lauter for 1 yd to the BOIS 14Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+6
31.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the BOIS 20Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+23
31.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 23 yds to the BOIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
30.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 23 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
30.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 14 yds to the CSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
30.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the CSU 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+2
30.0%
Tyler Crowe run for 2 yds to the CSU 13Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+3
29.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 3 yds to the CSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
29.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the CSU 3Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:1724% → 27%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 6 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
24.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 4 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
24.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
24.4%
Vann Schield run for 6 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
24.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
26.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 46 yds, downed at the BOIS 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10INT
4 plays · 30 yds · 2:0677% → 79%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+27
22.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 27 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
21.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 40Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
21.4%
Tyler Crowe run for 3 yds to the BOIS 43Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+10
20.9%
Colorado State Penalty, Illegal Block (Tony Pierce Jr.) to the CSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5524% → 24%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
24.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
24.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-1
23.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 22Similar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
23.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:0080% → 81%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
20.4%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the BOIS 41Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
20.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 41Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+22
20.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 22 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
19.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 39Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+4
20.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the CSU 35Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+3
20.0%
Tyler Crowe run for 3 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+49
19.1%
Jonah Dalmas 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 2:3421% → 20%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
21.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Peter Montini for 7 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+6
21.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
21.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 18 yds to the BOIS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
22.4%
Peter Montini run for 2 yds to the BOIS 40Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+11
22.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Peter Montini for 11 yds to the BOIS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
23.6%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the BOIS 26Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
23.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 3 yds to the BOIS 23Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-5
21.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for a loss of 5 yards to the BOIS 28Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
19.8%
Jordan Noyes 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4483% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
17.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
17.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jambres Dubar for no gain to the BOIS 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
17.6%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
16.9%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 41 yds, downed at the CSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:1819% → 28%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
18.5%
Vann Schield run for 1 yd to the CSU 45Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
18.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+9
17.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 9 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
18.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
18.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 9 yds to the BOIS 37Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+11
19.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the BOIS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
19.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
19.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dawson Menegatti for 5 yds to the BOIS 21Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 5
OPP 21
-5
19.0%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Dallin Holker) to the BOIS 26Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+21
18.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 21 yds to the BOIS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
19.0%
PENALTY CSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on JERVIS, Oliver BSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on TEUBNER, Alexander CSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on GARDNER, Jacob CSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
28.3%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:3575% → 76%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
25.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 11 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
24.3%
Taylen Green run for 8 yds to the BOIS 44Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
23.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+15
24.3%
MADSEN, Maddux pass short up the middle incomplete intended for BOWENS, Billy thrown to the BSU50; QB hurried by KAMARA, Mohamed. PENALTY CSU Personal Foul on KAMARA, Mohamed enforced 15 yards from the BSU46 to the CSU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
23.7%
JEANTY, Ashton rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the CSU35 (KELLY, Grady). PENALTY BSU Holding on KOMOLAFE, Favor enforced 10 yards from the CSU39 to the CSU49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 20
OPP 49
0
24.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+5
24.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 5 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 15
OPP 44
0
25.2%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
23.7%
Boise State Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Taylen Green) to the BOIS 46Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 15
OPP 44
0
24.0%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:1623% → 31%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
22.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
22.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+40
22.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 40 yds to the BOIS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
26.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for no gain to the BOIS 35Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
26.5%
Vann Schield run for 4 yds to the BOIS 31Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
25.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
30.9%
Jordan Noyes 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:0774% → 80%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
26.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 11 yds to the BOIS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
25.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Tyler Crowe for 4 yds to the BOIS 36Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+8
24.9%
Tyler Crowe run for 8 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
24.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 7 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+19
23.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 19 yds to the CSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
22.2%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
21.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 31Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+6
21.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 6 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
19.9%
Jonah Dalmas 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19Uncategorized
11 plays · 19 yds · 2:5419% → 15%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
19.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 8 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
20.4%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
20.3%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Jaylen Gardner) to the CSU 31Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
19.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+10
19.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 10 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+8
20.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
21.9%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the BOIS 49Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
22.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
21.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
18.2%
Colorado State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi) to the CSU 44Similar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
15.2%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:5685% → 94%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+15
15.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 15 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
14.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+6
14.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the CSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
14.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-1
14.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 20Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
15.4%
MADSEN, Maddux pass to the left incomplete intended for CROWE, Tyler thrown to the CSU20. PENALTY CSU Personal Foul on ANUSIEM, Chigozie enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the CSU20 to the CSU10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
14.6%
Tyler Crowe run for 3 yds to the CSU 7Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
14.6%
Maddux Madsen run for no gain to the CSU 7Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
15.0%
Boise State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jambres Dubar) to the CSU 12Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
15.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
6.3%
Jonah Dalmas 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:4795% → 99%
Q4 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
5.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the CSU 7Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
1.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:111% → 7%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.2%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+24
1.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 24 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
1.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 11 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
1.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the BOIS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
1.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 15 yds to the BOIS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
7.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 12 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
11 plays · 38 yds · 2:046% → 30%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
5.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 8 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+1
7.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 1 yd to the BOIS 29Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+11
6.7%
Vann Schield run for 11 yds to the BOIS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
7.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+11
7.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the BOIS 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
7.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
7.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
4.7%
(02:00) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass up the middle incomplete intended for HORTON, Tory thrown to the BSU0, clock 01:56. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on BENEFIELD, Ty enforced 5 yards to the BSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
5.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · -11 yds · 1:1293% → 90%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
7.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the CSU 40Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-10
6.9%
QB Keeper GREEN, Taylen rush to the left for a gain of 21 yards to the CSU19 (JOCK, Buom). PENALTY BSU Holding on LAUTER, Matt enforced 10 yards from the CSU40 to the BSU50 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 19
50
0
5.3%
Tyler Crowe run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 19
50
+3
5.7%
Tyler Crowe run for 3 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 16
OPP 47
-5
6.6%
Boise State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jambres Dubar) to the BOIS 48Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 21
OWN 48
0
6.4%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 40 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
10.0%
FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HORTON, Tory thrown to the CSU45. PENALTY CSU Illegal Touch-Pass on HORTON, Tory enforced 0 yards from the CSU12 to the CSU12, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 88 yds · 0:3310% → 95%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
10.0%
Colorado State Penalty, Illegal Touch-Pass on HORTON, Tory (Tory Horton) declinedSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+11
9.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 11 yds to the CSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+44
10.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 44 yds to the BOIS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
17.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
94.5%
Dallin Holker 33 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Dallin Holker 33 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)
+77.5
TD · Q4 1:53
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+24.9
TD · Q3 9:58
Vann Schield run for 5 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com