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BOIS

Boise State 32 at Memphis 35

MEM
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:27 · James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 51 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense−1.2Pregame prior+6.6Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:17: Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +15.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:43: Geoffrey Cantin-Arku 80 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Tanner Gillis Kick) — MEM win probability +25.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:16: Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 59 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK) — MEM win probability +16.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:54: Ashton Jeanty 15 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Maddux Madsen Pass to Stefan Cobbs for Two-Point Conversion) — BOIS win probability +24.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 0:39: Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 7 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +23.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:19BOIS 4th & 6 at MEM 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:25MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:09BOIS 4th & 2 at MEM 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:47MEM 4th & 1 at BOIS 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:27BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:37MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:33MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:55BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:55MEM 4th & 1 at BOIS 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%−2.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:52MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:04BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:09MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:43BOIS 4th & 1 at MEM 7, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.1%−5.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−20.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:08BOIS 4th & 8 at MEM 38, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−0.9
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q2 11:41BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:17BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:00MEM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:27MEM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:43MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:16MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:54BOIS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.2 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.5%−1.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:16MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:39BOIS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:4141% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.6%
Taylen Green run for 8 yds to the BOIS 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
58.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+17
58.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 17 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
58.6%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
58.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Prince Strachan for 9 yds to the MEM 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-5
58.6%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (Ashton Jeanty) to the MEM 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
58.6%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
58.6%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 47 yds, downed at the MEM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5459% → 58%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
58.8%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the MEM 4Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+3
58.7%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the MEM 7Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+2
58.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 2 yds to the MEM 9Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 2
OWN 9
0
58.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:1642% → 42%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
58.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Matt Lauter for 11 yds to the MEM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
58.0%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
58.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 9 yds to the MEM 17Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+4
58.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the MEM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
58.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the MEM 6Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+5
58.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the MEM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the MEM 1Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
58.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 2Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
58.2%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
57.6%
Jonah Dalmas 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:2258% → 58%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
57.5%
Blake Watson run for 17 yds to the MEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
58.3%
Seth Henigan sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 41Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
57.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+12
57.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 12 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
58.6%
Blake Watson run for 10 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
58.6%
Blake Watson run for 4 yds to the BOIS 33Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+5
59.0%
Sutton Smith run for 5 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 1
OPP 28
0
58.5%
Sutton Smith run for no gain to the BOIS 28Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 1
OPP 28
-2
58.0%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2043% → 43%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
57.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 19 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
56.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
56.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 49Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
57.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:27
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
57.5%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5057% → 56%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
56.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 4 yds to the MEM 24Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
57.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 4 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
56.3%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the MEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
56.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
56.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+6
55.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 6 yds to the MEM 36Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
55.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BOIS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:5644% → 52%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
56.0%
Taylen Green run for 10 yds to the BOIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
55.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BOIS 33Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+59
55.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Matt Lauter for 59 yds to the MEM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
48.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0447% → 45%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
47.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+11
47.1%
Blake Watson run for 11 yds to the MEM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
47.3%
Seth Henigan sacked by Michael Callahan for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 15Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+8
47.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 8 yds to the MEM 23Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
46.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 4
OWN 23
-5
46.2%
Memphis Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MEM 18Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
45.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BOIS 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:1653% → 69%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
47.0%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 38Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+37
47.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 37 yds to the MEM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
46.6%
Taylen Green run for 2 yds to the MEM 23Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
46.6%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
47.3%
GREEN, Taylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MCALISTER, Eric thrown to the MEM5. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on BRUMFIELD, DeAgo enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the MEM9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
46.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the MEM 6Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
46.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 5 yds to the MEM 1Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1736% → 46%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+53
35.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 53 yds to the BOIS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
38.5%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the BOIS 19Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+19
46.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 19 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0157% → 56%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
43.3%
JEANTY, Ashton rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the BSU27 (SMITH, Cameron). PENALTY BSU Holding on LAUTER, Matt enforced 10 yards from the BSU25 to the BSU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
43.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-2
43.8%
Taylen Green sacked by Chandler Martin for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 13Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+14
44.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 14 yds to the BOIS 27Similar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
43.6%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:2842% → 56%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
42.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 19 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
44.1%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the BOIS 44Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
44.2%
Seth Henigan run for 6 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
44.0%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the BOIS 38Similar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+3
42.7%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the BOIS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+24
45.4%
Seth Henigan run for 24 yds to the BOIS 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
42.4%
Seth Henigan run for 6 yds to the BOIS 5Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
56.2%
Blake Watson run for 5 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0450% → 47%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 27Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
52.6%
Memphis Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the MEM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:0452% → 49%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+16
52.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 16 yds to the MEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
52.9%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the MEM 28Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
52.9%
Seth Henigan run for no gain to the MEM 28Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
51.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
49.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, downed at the BOIS 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4850% → 48%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
49.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 9 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+11
48.1%
Jambres Dubar run for 11 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
47.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 47Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+1
48.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Shea Whiting for 1 yd to the BOIS 48Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
49.8%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
51.6%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:5550% → 48%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+22
50.3%
Blake Watson run for 22 yds to the MEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
51.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 13 yds to the MEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
53.9%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right incomplete thrown to the MEM40. PENALTY MEM Holding on MCCLAIN, Terrance enforced 10 yards from the MEM45 to the MEM35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+9
50.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jevyon Ducker for 9 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
52.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
50.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
48.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17MISSED FG TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 6:2652% → 32%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
48.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 10 yds to the BOIS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
47.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 28Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+20
48.4%
Taylen Green run for 20 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
45.2%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+20
45.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 20 yds to the MEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
43.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 9 yds to the MEM 23Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+7
43.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the MEM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
43.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the MEM 12Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
43.2%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the MEM 9Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+2
42.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the MEM 7Similar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+80
67.8%
Geoffrey Cantin-Arku 80 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Tanner Gillis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:2930% → 30%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
70.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 8 yds to the BOIS 26Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+3
68.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
69.9%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
70.8%
Taylen Green run for 11 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
68.4%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+20
69.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 20 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
66.3%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-3
66.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+5
70.0%
GREEN, Taylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MCALISTER, Eric broken up by BRUMFIELD, DeAgo at the MEM15. PENALTY MEM Offsides on ALLEN, Jaylon enforced 5 yards from the MEM43 to the MEM38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
66.9%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
70.5%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 26 yds, downed at the MEM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:5272% → 90%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
72.3%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the MEM 14Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
72.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+24
70.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 24 yds to the MEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
74.3%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the MEM 41Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+59
90.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 59 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1610% → 38%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
89.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the BOIS 24Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+14
89.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 14 yds to the BOIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
88.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+52
88.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 52 yds to the MEM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
85.8%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MEM 15Similar
Q4 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
61.6%
Ashton Jeanty 15 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Maddux Madsen Pass to Stefan Cobbs for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:3874% → 96%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 24Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
73.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 14 yds to the MEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
75.6%
Seth Henigan run for 9 yds to the MEM 47Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+11
77.1%
Blake Watson run for 11 yds to the BOIS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
77.6%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the BOIS 37Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-1
77.7%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 38Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+11
77.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 11 yds to the BOIS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
79.1%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the BOIS 24Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
79.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+21
77.5%
Blake Watson run for 21 yds to the BOIS 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
79.1%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 4Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
91.0%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the BOIS 1Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.0%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:374% → 28%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 8 yds to the BOIS 33Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
96.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 6 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
96.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 12 yds to the MEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
95.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 5 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+32
95.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 32 yds to the MEM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
94.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 5 yds to the MEM 7Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
71.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 7 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
95.7%
[NHSG] Kneel down by HENIGAN, Seth at BSU49 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:43
Geoffrey Cantin-Arku 80 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Tanner Gillis Kick)
+25.6
TD · Q4 8:54
Ashton Jeanty 15 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Maddux Madsen Pass to Stefan Cobbs for Two-Point Conversion)
-24.2
TD · Q4 0:39
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 7 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-23.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com