2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:19 · James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 68 yds, downed at the WYO 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:46: Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 19 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +6.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:04: Jambres Dubar run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +9.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:00: Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the WYO 33 — WYO win probability +2.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:00: Taylen Green run for 9 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:44: Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 6 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WYO made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 12:54WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snapGo for it36.3%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.4%average punt
- Q1 6:56WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 37, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it32.8%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.2%average punt
- Q1 5:25BOIS 4th & 10 at midfield, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snapGo for it66.4%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.7%average punt
- Q1 1:51WYO 4th & 9 at midfield, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snapGo for it31.5%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.7%average punt
- Q1 0:19BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 29, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snapGo for it62.8%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.0%average punt
- Q2 13:21WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 10, down 1Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snapGo for it35.2%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 10:45BOIS 4th & 8 at WYO 18, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snapGo for it63.8%−0.332% to convertField goalTheir call64.1%79% to makePunt61.9%−2.2average punt
- Q2 9:39WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 23, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snapGo for it34.7%−0.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.3%average punt
- Q2 9:39BOIS 4th & 1 at WYO 49, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt63.6%−0.8average punt
- Q2 0:42WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 48, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snapGo for it24.9%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.2%average punt
- Q3 7:58WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 37, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snapGo for it13.1%−0.834% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.9%average punt
- Q4 13:27WYO 4th & 21 at WYO 33, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it0.9%−1.08% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q4 8:25BOIS 4th & 7 at WYO 31, up 22Close callKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%37% to convertField goalTheir call98.7%−<0.154% to makePunt98.5%−0.2average punt
- Q4 7:04WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 26, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 1:30BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 49, up 25Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:28BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick64.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call64.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:46WYO Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.6%97% to makeGo for two36.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:04BOIS Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.5%97% to makeGo for two72.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:00BOIS Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.3%97% to makeGo for two85.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:44BOIS Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0632% → 32%
BOISDrive 2TD5 plays · 74 yds · 2:2668% → 69%
Q1 10:28
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+49
69.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 49 yds for a TD (Colt Fulton pass to Matt Lauter for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 3:3231% → 30%
Q1 10:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
68.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Alex Brown for 8 yds to the WYO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 1:3170% → 70%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
69.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 16 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5INT5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1830% → 29%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
70.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 13 yds to the WYO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
70.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 21Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
70.8%
PEASLEY, Andrew pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WIELAND, Wyatt thrown to the WYO45. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Rodney WYO Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on KING, Wes , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6FUMBLE3 plays · 40 yds · 1:2471% → 72%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
71.7%
Taylen Green run for 19 yds to the WYO 49 Taylen Green fumbled, recovered by WYO Kolbey Taylor [NHSG] QB Keeper GREEN, Taylen rush up the middle for a gain of 19 yards, GREEN, Taylen fumbled at WYO16 forced by EKELER, Wyett, recovered by WYO TAYLOR, Kolbey at the WYO9, returned 40 yards to the WYO49 (LAUTER, Matt;EKELER, Wyett), clock 02:43.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5230% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8TD1 play · 19 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
65.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 19 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2767% → 66%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for 4 yds to the BOIS 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3933% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11MISSED FG6 plays · 12 yds · 2:3669% → 67%
Q2 13:21
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+12
68.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 12 yds to the WYO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0634% → 33%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13TD14 plays · 77 yds · 7:3567% → 78%
Q2 9:39
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+11
66.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Riley Smith for 11 yds to the BOIS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
68.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 12 yds to the WYO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
68.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to George Holani for 17 yds to the WYO 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1825% → 24%
BOISDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 2 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD8 plays · 72 yds · 3:5578% → 88%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
77.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Riley Smith for 2 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
78.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 8 yds to the BOIS 46Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+36
79.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 36 yds to the WYO 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 3:0215% → 13%
Q3 11:00
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+10
85.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ayir Asante for 10 yds to the WYO 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD12 plays · 69 yds · 6:1489% → 98%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
88.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to George Holani for a loss of 4 yards to the BOIS 27Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+22
88.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 22 yds to the WYO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
89.3%
MADSEN, Maddux pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MCALISTER, Eric thrown to the WYO6. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on TAYLOR, Kolbey enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards to the WYO12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
97.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 6 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 3:112% → 2%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-9
98.0%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 9 yards to the WYO 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 35
+6
98.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 6 yds to the WYO 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 41
-8
98.2%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Andrew Simpson for a loss of 8 yards to the WYO 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20FG10 plays · 41 yds · 5:0298% → 100%
WYODrive 21PUNT7 plays · 1 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.6%
Boise State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Seyi Oladipo) to the WYO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 5:34100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · 13 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:04
Jambres Dubar run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q3 1:44
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 6 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q3 11:00
Taylen Green run for 9 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
+8.1