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BOIS

Boise State 34 at San Diego State 31

SDSU
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2023 · Snapdragon Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-4.2SDSU 37.1%Jonah Dalmas 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 17 · Q3 4:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:52 · Jonah Dalmas 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior−6.0Home team on offense−6.7Score differential−3.1Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:48: Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:05: Taylen Green run for 10 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +13.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:17: Jaylon Armstead run for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +25.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 2:02: Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:42: Jalen Mayden run for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +33.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:00BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:42BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:36SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:42BOIS 4th & 15 at SDSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:19SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:13SDSU 4th & 5 at BOIS 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:22BOIS 4th & 6 at SDSU 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:08BOIS 4th & 24 at BOIS 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−5.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:11SDSU 4th & 8 at BOIS 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    41.5%−9.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:52BOIS 4th & 9 at SDSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−12.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:48BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:54SDSU 4th & 16 at SDSU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−4.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:54BOIS 4th & 1 at SDSU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−7.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−21.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:37SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:58BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:13BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:48SDSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:05BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:17SDSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:02BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:42SDSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:2633% → 34%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
32.7%
Kenan Christon run for 13 yds to the BOIS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
32.7%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the BOIS 14Similar
Q1 14:49
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+3
32.7%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the BOIS 11Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
34.0%
Jalen Mayden run for 11 yds Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by BOIS Andrew SimpsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2366% → 66%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
33.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 13 yds to the BOIS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
33.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the BOIS 39Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
33.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
33.6%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q1 11:00
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+36
34.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 49 yds , Dezjhon Malone returns for 36 yds to the SDSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 3:2335% → 39%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
34.7%
Jaylon Armstead run for 9 yds to the BOIS 43Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
34.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the BOIS 43Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
34.7%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
34.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jaylon Armstead for 3 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
34.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+34
38.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 34 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4762% → 60%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
37.8%
Jambres Dubar run for 3 yds to the SDSU 48Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 17
OWN 42
0
38.4%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+4
38.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 4 yds to the BOIS 46Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
40.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0640% → 41%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
39.9%
Martin Blake run for no gain to the SDSU 1Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
39.8%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the SDSU 2Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
39.5%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the SDSU 2Similar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 9
OWN 2
0
40.7%
Jack Browning punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the SDSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5460% → 57%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
40.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the SDSU 40Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
40.3%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
40.9%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
42.6%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:2342% → 44%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
42.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Joshua Nicholson for 5 yds to the SDSU 20Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
42.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 4 yds to the SDSU 24Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
42.2%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the SDSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
42.6%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the SDSU 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
44.4%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+5
43.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 5 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
43.8%
Jack Browning punt for 45 yds , Stefan Cobbs returns for no gain to the BOIS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 2:2156% → 63%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+37
44.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 37 yds to the SDSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
42.9%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the SDSU 35Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+6
42.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the SDSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
42.0%
Jambres Dubar run for 4 yds to the SDSU 25Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+25
36.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 25 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:4542% → 44%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
42.0%
Kenan Christon run for 8 yds to the BOIS 47Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+37
42.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 37 yds to the BOIS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
42.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 6 yds to the BOIS 4Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
42.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the BOIS 5Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
43.7%
Jack Browning 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:5557% → 66%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
43.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BOIS 26Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+14
42.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 14 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
41.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 2 yds to the BOIS 42Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+58
34.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 58 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:2536% → 51%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
36.4%
Martin Blake pass complete to Brionne Penny for 32 yds to the BOIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+6
37.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 6 yds to the BOIS 42Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+12
39.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Martin Blake for 12 yds to the BOIS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
40.1%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the BOIS 25Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+9
40.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 9 yds to the BOIS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
40.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 14 yds to the BOIS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 2:2253% → 60%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
46.8%
Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the BOIS 22Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+4
46.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the BOIS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+36
46.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 36 yds to the SDSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
43.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 10 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
42.2%
Jambres Dubar run for 1 yd to the SDSU 27Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
42.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+11
44.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 11 yds to the SDSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
42.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the SDSU 18Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+6
43.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 6 yds to the SDSU 12Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
46.6%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
39.8%
Jonah Dalmas 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.3%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the SDSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:5259% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
41.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 4 yds to the BOIS 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-11
42.3%
Taylen Green sacked by Eric Butler for a loss of 11 yards to the BOIS 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 25
OWN 20
+1
43.6%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the BOIS 21Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 24
OWN 21
+21
45.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 67 yds , Cam Davis returns for 21 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:5747% → 49%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
47.0%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the SDSU 35Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+22
47.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 22 yds to the BOIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
50.1%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the BOIS 39Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+14
50.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Logan Tanner for 14 yds to the BOIS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
50.9%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd to the BOIS 26Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+3
50.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 3 yds to the BOIS 23Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
49.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark RedmanSimilar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
49.1%
Jack Browning 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:1955% → 63%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
44.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 23Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+25
44.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 25 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
41.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 3 yds to the SDSU 49Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
40.9%
Jambres Dubar run for 4 yds to the SDSU 45Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+39
41.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 39 yds to the SDSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
39.4%
Jambres Dubar run for 1 yd to the SDSU 5Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
39.4%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the SDSU 9Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
41.3%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q3 4:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
37.1%
Jonah Dalmas 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.6%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd to the SDSU 26 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by BOIS Jayden VirginSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:3767% → 80%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
32.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 11 yds to the SDSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
32.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the SDSU 12Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
32.7%
Taylen Green run for 2 yds to the SDSU 10Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
19.6%
Taylen Green run for 10 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 3:4322% → 49%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
21.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Martin BlakeSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
21.5%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Baylin BrooksSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+36
20.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 36 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
24.7%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the BOIS 41Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
24.5%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+11
23.5%
Jalen Mayden run for 11 yds to the BOIS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
26.1%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+2
25.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the BOIS 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+16
23.7%
Jalen Mayden run for 16 yds to the BOIS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
49.2%
Jaylon Armstead run for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:2462% → 66%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
38.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 23Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
38.2%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Prince StrachanSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+14
39.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 14 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
36.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
35.3%
Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the BOIS 46Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
35.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the BOIS 42Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+4
34.5%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 55 yds , Cam Davis returns for 4 yds to the SDSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:5439% → 33%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
38.5%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the SDSU 10Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
38.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the SDSU 10Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+9
37.0%
Jalen Mayden run for 9 yds to the SDSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
39.3%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the SDSU 24Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
39.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-6
37.0%
Jalen Mayden sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSU 13Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 16
OWN 13
0
32.9%
Jack Browning punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:5274% → 95%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
50
0
26.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
50
+12
26.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 12 yds to the SDSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
26.5%
Taylen Green run for 9 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
24.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Prince StrachanSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
26.4%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the SDSU 29Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+5
28.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the SDSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
24.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the SDSU 18Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+1
24.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the SDSU 17Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+3
26.4%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the SDSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
14.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the SDSU 6Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
5.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 1:155% → 40%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
4.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 19 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
5.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 12 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
5.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Baylin BrooksSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+15
5.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 15 yds to the BOIS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
7.3%
Jalen Mayden run for 6 yds to the BOIS 20Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+10
5.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 10 yds to the BOIS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
39.7%
Jalen Mayden run for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4194% → 95%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
5.7%
T. Green takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-1
5.0%
T. Green takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:42
Jalen Mayden run for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)
+33.6
TD · Q4 14:17
Jaylon Armstead run for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)
+25.5
TD · Q3 3:05
Taylen Green run for 10 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com