Arkansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1250th
  Defense+0.1917th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.5%44th
  Defense42.2%48th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3586th
  Defense+1.2747th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1154th
  Defense+0.1236th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2348th
  Defense+0.3020th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.6%43rd
  Defense50.1%20th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.6%48th
  Defense24.5%92nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1353rd
  Defense2.8975th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.1%48th
  Defense17.3%52nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.6%44th
  Defense15.8%41st

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arkansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   OU
2. L
   MEM
3. W
   STBK
4. W
   USM
5. W
   MASS
6. L
   TROY
7. L
   CCU
8. W
   ULM
9. W
   UL
10. L
    USA
11. W
    TXST
12. L
    MRSH
13. L
    NIU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Arkansas State.

Players, 2023

1. Jaylen RaynorQB315 plays · +0.247 pts/play · 50th of 250 QBs
   1.45WAR0.85 to 1.98
2. Ja'Quez CrossRB110 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 111th of 383 RBs
   0.24WAR0.15 to 0.32
3. Zak WallaceRB85 plays · +0.130 pts/play · 128th of 383 RBs
   0.21WAR0.12 to 0.28
4. William PrzystupP41 plays · +0.186 pts/play · 18th of 103 punters
   0.14WAR0.08 to 0.21
5. Corey RuckerWR32 plays · +0.236 pts/play · 122nd of 457 WRs
   0.14WAR0.08 to 0.21
6. Courtney JacksonWR30 plays · +0.207 pts/play · 157th of 457 WRs
   0.12WAR0.05 to 0.17
7. Dominic ZvadaPK16 plays · +0.379 pts/play · 25th of 113 kickers
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.15
8. Jeff ForemanWR20 plays · +0.213 pts/play · 219th of 457 WRs
   0.08WAR0.02 to 0.14

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Arkansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  48748792nd of 130Roster talent: 487, 92nd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15415479th of 130Recruiting: 154, 79th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  18%18%119th of 128Returning production: 18%, 119th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −6.3−6.382nd of 130SP+ rating: −6.3, 82nd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arkansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs USMQ4 3:50 4th & 4 at USM 4, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.6 pts
2. vs USMQ4 9:04 4th & 3 at USM 49, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
3. vs ULQ2 4:26 4th & 3 at UL 3, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
4. at NIUQ3 3:55 4th & 3 at ARST 10, down 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. at USAQ3 12:55 4th & 2 at USA 26, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. at USAQ4 9:42 4th & 8 at USA 21, down 15Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.6 pts
7. at USAQ3 6:29 4th & 2 at ARST 30, down 15Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. at TROYQ2 14:13 4th & 1 at ARST 44, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

23rd of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Arkansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   OU
2. L

   MEM
3. W

   STBK
4. W

   USM
5. W

   MASS
6. L

   TROY
7. L

   CCU
8. W

   ULM
9. W

   UL
10. L

    USA
11. W

    TXST
12. L

    MRSH
13. L

    NIU

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Arkansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.19
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.02
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.40

Game by game

• OUL 0-73 at OU1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −3
• MEML 3-37 vs MEM6% → 0%Before kickoff −44 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −10
• STBKW 31-7 vs STBK93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +10
• USMW 44-37 vs USM28% → 99%Before kickoff −22 · On the field +70: Scoreboard +47, Timeouts +2
• MASSW 52-28 at MASS46% → 99%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +56, Clock +1
• TROYL 3-37 at TROY14% → 0%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −17
• CCUL 17-27 vs CCU24% → 2%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −34, Clock −2
• ULMW 34-24 at ULM51% → 96%Before kickoff +1 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +51, Clock +3
• ULW 37-17 vs UL28% → 100%Before kickoff −22 · On the field +72: Scoreboard +54, Timeouts +4
• USAL 14-21 at USA14% → 3%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −18, Timeouts −1
• TXSTW 77-31 vs TXST40% → 100%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +56, Timeouts −2
• MRSHL 21-35 at MRSH49% → 5%Before kickoff −1 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −37, Clock −1
• NIUL 19-21 at NIU53% → 5%Before kickoff +3 · On the field −47: Scoreboard −35, Possession & field position −1

Points of win probability, from Arkansas State's side.

Closest call

ARST 30-29 APP (2025) - Arkansas State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.