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STBK

Stony Brook 7 at Arkansas State 31

ARST
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadSTBK aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreSTBK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:47 · William Przystup punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+36.9Home team on offense+6.7Score differential+3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.2Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 12:17: Dominic Zvada 22 yd FG GOOD — STBK win probability +0.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 6:14: Ja'Quez Cross run for 66 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +1.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:45: Timeout Arkansas State, clock 03:45 — ARST win probability +4.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:35: Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:14: Casey Case pass complete to Rahmon Hart Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Enda Kirby KICK) — STBK win probability +1.0 pts (now 1%) (top driver: STBK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7STBK made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 12:17ARST 4th & 2 at STBK 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:56STBK 4th & 5 at STBK 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:29STBK 4th & 4 at STBK 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:05STBK 4th & 12 at STBK 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:47ARST 4th & 10 at STBK 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:46STBK 4th & 2 at ARST 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:47ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:45STBK 4th & 6 at ARST 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:52ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 48, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:12STBK 4th & 14 at ARST 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:55ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:50STBK 4th & 9 at ARST 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−3.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:50ARST 4th & 2 at STBK 8, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−3.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:00STBK 4th & 9 at STBK 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:03STBK 4th & 2 at ARST 9, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:05ARST 4th & 19 at STBK 39, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:42STBK 4th & 7 at STBK 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4STBK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:03ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:14ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:35ARST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:24ARST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:14STBK Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:4393% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
93.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 44 yds to the STBK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
93.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the STBK 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
93.2%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+5
93.2%
Stony Brook Penalty, Offsides (Aidan Kaler) to the STBK 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+10
93.2%
Zak Wallace run for 10 yds to the STBK 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
93.2%
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the STBK 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
93.2%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the STBK 5Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
93.2%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
92.7%
Dominic Zvada 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:217% → 8%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Ross Tallarico run for no gain to the STBK 25Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Casey Case pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.7%
Ross Tallarico run for 5 yds to the STBK 30Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
92.4%
Clayton Taylor punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:5392% → 93%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+25
92.3%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 25 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
92.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 12 yds to the STBK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
92.5%
Jaxon Dailey run for 10 yds to the STBK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
92.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the STBK 31Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
92.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 13 yds to the STBK 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
92.5%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+17
92.5%
Zak Wallace run for 17 yds to the STBK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:338% → 8%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
92.3%
Casey Case pass complete to Jayce Freeman for 2 yds to the STBK 19Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-5
92.3%
Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (Jayce Freeman) to the STBK 14Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 13
OWN 14
0
92.3%
Casey Case pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 13
OWN 14
+9
92.4%
Casey Case pass complete to Cole Bunicci for 9 yds to the STBK 23Similar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
92.1%
Clayton Taylor punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:1594% → 95%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
93.5%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+66
94.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 66 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:097% → 7%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
93.4%
Jayden Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the STBK 33Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
93.4%
Casey Case pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
93.5%
CASE, Casey pass to the right complete for 12 yards to TURNER, Jadon caught at the SBU45 and advanced to the SBU45 (THOMAS, Trevian). PENALTY SBU Illegal Touch-Pass on TURNER, Jadon enforced 0 yards from the SBU33 to the SBU33, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
93.5%
Clayton Taylor punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:1895% → 95%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
94.8%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 21Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+14
94.7%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 14 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
94.8%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
94.9%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Tennel Bryant for 6 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
94.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 9 yds to the STBK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.0%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
94.9%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Tennel Bryant for no gain to the STBK 47Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
94.9%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
94.9%
William Przystup punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:017% → 7%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
93.5%
Casey Case pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
93.5%
Shakhi Carson run for 4 yds to the STBK 12Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+19
93.5%
Casey Case run for 19 yds to the STBK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
93.3%
Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 9 yds to the STBK 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+1
93.4%
Shakhi Carson run for 1 yd to the STBK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
93.6%
Casey Case sacked by Dennard Flowers for a loss of 8 yards to the STBK 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+15
93.8%
Arkansas State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on WILLEKES, Charles enforced (Charles Willekes) to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
93.3%
Casey Case sacked by Thurman Geathers for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+6
93.6%
Shakhi Carson run for 6 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+6
93.4%
Casey Case pass complete to Cole Bunicci for 6 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 2
OPP 29
0
93.3%
Casey Case pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:5996% → 96%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
96.0%
Jaxon Dailey sacked by Aidan Kaler for a loss of 6 yards to the ARST 23Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 16
OWN 23
-4
95.9%
Jaxon Dailey sacked by Dyshier Clary and Anthony Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 19Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 20
OWN 19
+1
95.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 20Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 19
OWN 20
0
95.9%
William Przystup punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 10MISSED FG
15 plays · 42 yds · 5:176% → 7%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
93.6%
Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 2 yds to the STBK 42Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
93.6%
Casey Case pass complete to Jayden Cook for 10 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
93.3%
Brandon Boria run for 1 yd to the ARST 47Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-1
93.4%
Shakhi Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 48Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+5
93.6%
CASE, Casey pass deep to the right incomplete intended for COOK, Jayden broken up by HODGES, Justin at the ASU27. PENALTY ASU Offsides on LEWIS, Kadan enforced 5 yards from the ASU48 to the ASU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+8
93.2%
Casey Case pass complete to Jayce Freeman for 8 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
93.0%
Casey Case pass complete to Jayden Cook for 4 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
92.9%
Casey Case run for 3 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+6
93.1%
Shakhi Carson run for 6 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
92.9%
Casey Case pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
93.0%
Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 4 yds to the ARST 18Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
93.1%
Casey Case pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
92.8%
Spencer Biscoe 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:5397% → 96%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
96.9%
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
96.8%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
96.7%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
96.9%
Jaxon Dailey run for 7 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
96.9%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the STBK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.0%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
97.0%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Corey Rucker for 2 yds to the STBK 47Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
96.8%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 8
OPP 47
-5
96.7%
Arkansas State Penalty, False Start (Jeff Foreman) to the ARST 48Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
95.8%
William Przystup punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:526% → 6%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
93.9%
Shakhi Carson run for 6 yds to the STBK 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
93.7%
Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 3 yds to the STBK 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:446% → 5%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
93.7%
Ross Tallarico run for 27 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
93.2%
Shakhi Carson run for 12 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
92.8%
Shakhi Carson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 28Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
93.2%
Casey Case pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+12
93.7%
Casey Case pass complete to Rahmon Hart Jr. for 12 yds to the ARST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
92.8%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 18Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 12
OPP 18
0
93.0%
Casey Case pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 12
OPP 18
-2
93.6%
Casey Case sacked by Nate Martey and Keyron Crawford for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 20Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+37
94.7%
Spencer Biscoe 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1795% → 95%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
95.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 18Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+1
95.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 19Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
95.0%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
94.9%
William Przystup punt for 40 yds, downed at the STBK 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:056% → 5%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
93.7%
Casey Case pass complete to Jayden Cook for 7 yds to the STBK 48Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
93.2%
Shakhi Carson run for 1 yd to the STBK 49Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+14
93.4%
Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 14 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
93.1%
Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 13 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
92.6%
Ross Tallarico run for 2 yds to the ARST 22Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
93.8%
Casey Case pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+4
94.5%
Casey Case pass complete to Jayden Cook for 4 yds to the ARST 18Similar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 4
OPP 18
-5
94.4%
Stony Brook Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jayden Cook) to the ARST 23Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
94.9%
Spencer Biscoe 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:1597% → 99%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.5%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
96.4%
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+5
96.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
96.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+32
96.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 32 yds to the STBK 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
96.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 13 yds to the STBK 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
96.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
96.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the STBK 16Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+8
96.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the STBK 8Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+3
96.4%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the STBK 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
98.7%
Shakhi Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the STBK 34Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
98.7%
Casey Case pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-5
98.8%
Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (Noah Rodriguez) to the STBK 29Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+7
98.8%
Casey Case pass complete to Ross Tallarico for 7 yds to the STBK 36Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
98.9%
Clayton Taylor punt for 46 yds, downed at the ARST 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 2:3699% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the ARST 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+42
99.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 42 yds to the STBK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
99.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 15 yds to the STBK 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
99.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 9 yds to the STBK 16Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
99.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the STBK 16Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+5
99.5%
CROSS, Ja'Quez rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the SBU15 (FERRELLI, Anthony). PENALTY SBU Offsides on LEGAGNEUR, Clarens enforced 5 yards from the SBU16 to the SBU11 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
99.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the STBK 8Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
99.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 8 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 19TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:490% → 1%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+68
99.9%
Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 68 yds to the ARST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
99.9%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 19Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+10
99.9%
Shakhi Carson run for 10 yds to the ARST 9Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 2
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Ross Tallarico run for no gain to the ARST 9Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+3
99.8%
Shakhi Carson run for 3 yds to the ARST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.8%
Casey Case pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
99.9%
Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (Charles Allen III) to the ARST 11Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
98.9%
Casey Case pass complete to Rahmon Hart Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Enda Kirby KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+28
99.8%
Cedric Hawkins run for 28 yds to the STBK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.8%
Cedric Hawkins run for 3 yds to the STBK 27Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+2
99.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the STBK 25Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-14
99.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the STBK 24 Arkansas State Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Unnecessary Roughness on THOMAS, Makilan enforced (-15 Yards) to the STBK 39Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
99.8%
William Przystup punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:231% → 0%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.5%
Brandon Boria run for 4 yds to the STBK 24Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+14
99.5%
Casey Case pass complete to Cal Redman for 14 yds to the STBK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.5%
Ross Tallarico run for 8 yds to the STBK 46Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-1
99.5%
Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the STBK 45Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-4
99.6%
Casey Case sacked by Blayne Toll for a loss of 4 yards to the STBK 41Similar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Clayton Taylor punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:42100% → 100%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.8%
Cedric Hawkins run for 3 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
99.8%
Cedric Hawkins run for 1 yd to the ARST 39Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+6
99.8%
Cedric Hawkins run for 6 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
99.8%
Cedric Hawkins run for 11 yds to the STBK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.8%
Mike Sharpe II run for 5 yds to the STBK 39Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+3
99.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the STBK 36Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
99.9%
Mike Sharpe II run for 3 yds to the STBK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 3:45
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 03:45
+4
TD · Q3 1:35
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+2.9
TD · Q1 6:14
Ja'Quez Cross run for 66 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com