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ARST

Arkansas State 14 at South Alabama 21

USA
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-7.5USA 88.9%Jaylen Raynor pass complete to JeffForeman for 46 yds for a TD (J. RaynorRun For Two-point Conversion)AWAY 14 - HOME 21 · Q4 3:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:39 · Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 46 yds for a TD (J. Raynor Run For Two-point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Pregame prior+2.6Home team on offense+14.8Garbage-time factor+4.9Score differential+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:07: Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 20 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +6.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 12:55: Dominic Zvada 44 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +2.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:01: Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 24 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +6.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:39: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 46 yds for a TD (J. Raynor Run For Two-point Conversion) — ARST win probability +7.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:39: La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the USA 34 — USA win probability +5.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:29USA 4th & 4 at USA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:18ARST 4th & 9 at USA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:32ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:32ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:52USA 4th & 9 at USA 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:51ARST 4th & 23 at ARST 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:00USA 4th & 12 at USA 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:09ARST 4th & 4 at USA 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:30USA 4th & 5 at USA 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:51ARST 4th & 6 at USA 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:51USA 4th & 5 at USA 41, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.8%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:55ARST 4th & 2 at USA 26, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.7%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−4.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:41USA 4th & 1 at ARST 44, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−3.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:29ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 30, down 15
    Close callPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:44USA 4th & 1 at USA 40, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.5%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:09USA 4th & 2 at USA 31, up 15
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:50ARST 4th & 2 at USA 38, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−1.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−1.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:27USA 4th & 13 at USA 36, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:42ARST 4th & 8 at USA 21, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−2.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:39ARST 4th & 8 at USA 46, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:21USA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:07USA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:01USA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:39ARST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.3%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3186% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
86.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 5 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
86.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+1
86.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 41Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
85.7%
Jack Martin punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:1114% → 16%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
85.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 7 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+3
85.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
85.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Raynor,Jaylen pass complete short left to Jackson,Courtney for 8 yards to the ASU46 (Voisin,Jaden) PENALTY USA Holding (Fletcher,Ricky) 10 yards from ASU38 to ASU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
85.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 13 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
85.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+2
85.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+11
85.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 11 yds to the USA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
85.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Reagan EalySimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
85.7%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the USA 19Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
85.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
84.2%
Dominic Zvada 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5784% → 85%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+60
84.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 60 yds to the ARST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
84.7%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the ARST 13Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+13
84.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 13 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4916% → 16%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
84.5%
Zak Wallace run for 26 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
84.1%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the USA 48Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
84.1%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-10
84.1%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Quentin Wilfawn for a loss of 10 yards to the ARST 47Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 14
OWN 47
+14
84.1%
William Przystup punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 22 , Caullin Lacy returns for 14 yds to the USA 39 South Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Mike Harris) to the USA 22Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 14
OWN 47
+14
84.1%
William Przystup punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 4 , Caullin Lacy returns for 14 yds to the USA 39 South Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Mike Harris) to the USA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:4084% → 82%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
83.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the USA 11Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+3
83.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
83.7%
Carter Bradley sacked by Nate Martey for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 12Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+3
83.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USA 15Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
83.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
82.3%
Jack Martin punt for 45 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for no gain to the ARST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0118% → 17%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
82.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Cedric Hawkins for 21 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
82.1%
Cedric Hawkins run for no gain to the USA 41Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-6
82.1%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Trey Kiser for a loss of 6 yards to the USA 47 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 16
OPP 47
-7
82.3%
Jaylen Raynor sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 46Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 23
OWN 46
0
82.8%
William Przystup punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5182% → 81%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
82.4%
Braylon McReynolds run for 10 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
82.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 4 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
83.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-6
82.6%
Carter Bradley sacked by Nate Martey for a loss of 6 yards to the USA 38Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
81.2%
Jack Martin punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARST 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:5118% → 20%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
81.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 22Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+10
81.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 10 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
81.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+9
81.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 9 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
80.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 48Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+7
81.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 7 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
80.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Reagan EalySimilar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
80.5%
William Przystup punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3981% → 79%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
80.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USA 6Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+2
80.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 8Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 5
OWN 8
0
80.2%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the USA 8Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 5
OWN 8
+4
79.4%
Jack Martin punt for 36 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 4 yds to the USA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10MISSED FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3921% → 21%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
78.8%
Zak Wallace run for 9 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+5
78.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the USA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
78.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 4 yds to the USA 22Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
78.2%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the USA 19Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+3
78.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the USA 22Similar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
79.3%
Dominic Zvada 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 5:4480% → 88%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
80.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
80.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+5
80.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
80.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
81.3%
Carter Bradley run for 2 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
80.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+19
79.8%
Todd Justice run for 19 yds to the ARST 40 Todd Justice fumbled, recovered by USA Travis Drosos for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
81.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
82.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+2
81.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
82.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for no gain to the ARST 30Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
82.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 1 yd to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+9
81.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 9 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
87.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 20 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
86.1%
Kneel down by Arkansas St. at ASU31 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:0513% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
86.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 17 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
86.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 24 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
85.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the USA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+1
84.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 1 yd to the USA 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
85.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the USA 26Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+44
83.4%
Dominic Zvada 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:4087% → 93%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
86.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
86.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 5 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
86.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+1
85.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
86.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
86.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-5
86.4%
PENALTY USA False Start (Buys,Reed) 5 yards from ASU34 to ASU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+5
86.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bradley,Carter pass complete short middle to Ivory,Javon for 4 yards to the ASU35 (Mackey,Javante) PENALTY ASU Offside (Geathers,Thurman) 5 yards from ASU39 to ASU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+10
86.4%
Braylon McReynolds run for 10 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
92.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 24 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:239% → 8%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
91.0%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 21Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+9
91.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
90.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Adam JonesSimilar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
91.7%
William Przystup punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4593% → 94%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
92.7%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the USA 32Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+2
92.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 2 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+10
92.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 10 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
94.0%
Marco Lee Jr. run for no gain to the USA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:349% → 8%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
90.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 9 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+5
89.8%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the USA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
89.8%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jamie Sheriff for 0 yards to the USA 26Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
90.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 12
OPP 28
0
92.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0195% → 95%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
94.7%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the USA 23Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
94.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+6
94.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 6 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q3 0:09
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
94.8%
Jack Martin punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:197% → 7%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
93.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Ja'Quez CrossSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
93.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Raynor,Jaylen pass incomplete deep left to Foreman,Jeff PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Fletcher,Ricky) 15 yards from ASU39 to USA46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
93.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
93.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+5
93.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 5 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+1
92.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the USA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2396% → 95%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
95.4%
PENALTY USA False Start (Robinson,James) 5 yards from USA39 to USA34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 15
OWN 34
0
94.9%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 20
OWN 29
+7
94.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 7 yds to the USA 36Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
95.1%
Jack Martin punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 2:457% → 5%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Miller McCrumbySimilar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
93.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+14
93.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 14 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
92.8%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+8
92.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Raynor,Jaylen pass incomplete short right to McCrumby,Miller, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Jordan,Jalen) 8 yards from USA49 to USA41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
92.7%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+15
92.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Raynor,Jaylen pass incomplete deep right to Foreman,Jeff PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Fletcher,Ricky) 15 yards from USA38 to USA23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
91.5%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the USA 21Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
91.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Courtney JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
92.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Miller McCrumbySimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 8
OPP 21
0
95.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Reagan EalySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22FUMBLE
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:4897% → 98%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
96.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 19Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+26
96.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 26 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
96.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 46Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-10
96.9%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USA 42Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+6
96.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+11
96.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 11 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
97.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 22 yds to the ARST 19 La'Damian Webb fumbled, recovered by ARST Eddie Smith No Huddle-Shotgun Webb,La'Damian rush middle for 22 yards gain to the ASU19 fumbled by Webb,La'Damian at ASU21 forced by Thomas,Trevian recovered by ASU Smith,Eddie at ASU19 Smith,Eddie return 0 yards to the ASU19 (Pritchett,Jamaal).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:153% → 11%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
96.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 12 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
96.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 6 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+15
96.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 15 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
96.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 3 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
96.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Courtney JacksonSimilar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+1
96.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 1 yd to the USA 46Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 8
OPP 46
+46
88.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 46 yds for a TD (J. Raynor Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24END OF GAME
11 plays · 24 yds · 3:3994% → 97%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
93.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
94.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 33Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+5
94.2%
Carter Bradley run for 5 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+5
94.9%
Martin,Jack punt 19 yards to the ASU43 PENALTY ASU Running Into The Kicker 5 yards from USA38 to USA43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
95.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+10
95.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 10 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
95.8%
C. Bradley takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-1
97.0%
C. Bradley takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:39
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 46 yds for a TD (J. Raynor Run For Two-point Conversion)
-7.5
TD · Q2 0:07
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 20 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q3 8:01
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 24 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com