Arkansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1347th
  Defense+0.257th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.0%33rd
  Defense48.0%8th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2020th
  Defense+1.3130th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0846th
  Defense+0.237th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1752nd
  Defense+0.2914th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.9%20th
  Defense54.7%3rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.5%59th
  Defense31.7%35th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0144th
  Defense3.455th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.6%59th
  Defense16.1%32nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.4%42nd
  Defense15.2%39th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arkansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   CARK
2. W
   TLSA
3. L
   MICH
4. L
   ISU
5. W
   USA
6. L
   TXST
7. W
   USM
8. W
   TROY
9. L
   UL
10. W
    GAST
11. W
    ULM
12. L
    ODU
13. W
    BGSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Arkansas State.

Players, 2024

1. Jaylen RaynorQB437 plays · +0.227 pts/play · 36th of 232 QBs
   1.86WAR1.28 to 2.45
2. Corey RuckerWR54 plays · +0.383 pts/play · 2nd of 452 WRs
   0.39WAR0.25 to 0.52
3. Zak WallaceRB129 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 83rd of 373 RBs
   0.31WAR0.20 to 0.39
4. Ja'Quez CrossRB119 plays · +0.113 pts/play · 115th of 373 RBs
   0.25WAR0.17 to 0.34
5. Courtney JacksonWR32 plays · +0.256 pts/play · 81st of 452 WRs
   0.15WAR0.08 to 0.23
6. Clune Van AndelPK20 plays · +0.273 pts/play · 30th of 114 kickers
   0.10WAR0.05 to 0.15
7. Adam JonesWR18 plays · +0.107 pts/play · 287th of 452 WRs
   0.04WAR0.00 to 0.07
8. Ryan HeicherP43 plays · +0.015 pts/play · 87th of 106 punters
   0.01WAR−0.04 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Arkansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  57357386th of 131Roster talent: 573, 86th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15915978th of 131Recruiting: 159, 78th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  86%86%8th of 130Returning production: 86%, 8th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −9.9−9.9102nd of 131SP+ rating: −9.9, 102nd of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arkansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs TLSAQ4 12:25 4th & 1 at ARST 32, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
2. vs ODUQ4 6:03 4th & 8 at ODU 8, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
3. at GASTQ2 1:16 4th & 1 at ARST 29, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
4. vs TROYQ2 1:48 4th & 1 at ARST 23, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
5. at MICHQ2 0:02 4th & 1 at MICH 21, down 18Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. vs TROYQ2 0:19 4th & 5 at TROY 35, up 17Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs USAQ2 1:01 4th & 3 at USA 3, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs USAQ4 14:10 4th & 3 at ARST 27, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

15th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Arkansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   CARK
2. W

   TLSA
3. L

   MICH
4. L

   ISU
5. W

   USA
6. L

   TXST
7. W

   USM
8. W

   TROY
9. L

   UL
10. W

    GAST
11. W

    ULM
12. L

    ODU
13. W

    BGSU

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Arkansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.25
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.11
• Timeouts+0.17
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.10

Game by game

• CARKW 34-31 vs CARK73% → 80%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +12, Timeouts +2
• TLSAW 28-24 vs TLSA70% → 96%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +29, Clock +1
• MICHL 18-28 at MICH9% → 3%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −16
• ISUL 7-52 at ISU10% → 0%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −12
• USAW 18-16 vs USA49% → 83%Before kickoff −1 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +17, Timeouts +4
• TXSTL 9-41 at TXST22% → 0%Before kickoff −28 · On the field −22: Scoreboard −26, Timeouts +1
• USMW 44-28 at USM73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +28, Timeouts +6
• TROYW 34-31 vs TROY77% → 95%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +25, Clock +1
• ULL 19-55 at UL20% → 0%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −23
• GASTW 27-20 at GAST51% → 95%Before kickoff +1 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +49, Clock +3
• ULMW 28-21 vs ULM66% → 99%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts +1
• ODUL 32-40 vs ODU42% → 3%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −46, Clock −2
• BGSUW 38-31 at BGSU26% → 96%Before kickoff −24 · On the field +71: Scoreboard +56, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Arkansas State's side.

Closest call

ARST 30-29 APP (2025) - Arkansas State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.