Try the model
USA

South Alabama 16 at Arkansas State 18

ARST
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · Gio Lopez pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTimeout advantageBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Laith Marjan 42 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +5.3 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Defense has -3 timeouts left).
  2. TD · Q3 1:09: Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 75 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +17.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:58: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Little for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ARST win probability +17.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:49: Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — USA win probability +42.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:10: Clune Van Andel 34 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +71.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 10USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:27ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:43USA 4th & 6 at USA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:29ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:19USA 4th & 2 at USA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:43ARST 4th & 3 at USA 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:42USA 4th & 1 at ARST 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%−1.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:41ARST 4th & 17 at USA 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    50.3%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:06USA 4th & 2 at ARST 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    46.8%−1.0
    75% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−6.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:00ARST 4th & 1 at USA 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−2.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:01ARST 4th & 3 at USA 3, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.1%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−7.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:38USA 4th & 7 at USA 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:18ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−3.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:49USA 4th & 14 at USA 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−3.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:54ARST 4th & 5 at USA 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−13.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:10ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 27, down 1
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:31USA 4th & 12 at USA 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−5.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:10ARST 4th & 3 at USA 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−35.6
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−55.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 1:09USA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 5:58ARST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    76.9%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.8%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:49USA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    59.1%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2349% → 49%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
48.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 12 yds to the ARST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
48.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 7 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+1
49.1%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 37Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
49.2%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 38Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
49.2%
Ryan Heicher punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:3651% → 50%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
49.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 11 yds to the USA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
49.4%
Arkansas State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
49.3%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
49.3%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USA 29Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+9
49.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 9 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
49.3%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
49.6%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0950% → 50%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
49.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 5 yds to the ARST 21Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+3
49.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
49.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
49.6%
Ryan Heicher punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jaden Voisin at the USA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0350% → 50%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
49.8%
Gio Lopez run for no gain to the USA 33Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-1
50.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 32Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+9
50.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 9 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
50.1%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5FG
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:3650% → 52%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+50
50.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 50 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
51.2%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 37Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+13
51.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
51.6%
(05:39) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for STEVENSON JR., Manny thrown to the USA0, clock 05:36. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on VOISIN, Jaden enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the USA9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
51.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
51.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
51.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 6 yds to the USA 3Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
52.2%
Clune Van Andel 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6INT
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:4548% → 50%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
51.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 13 yds to the USA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
51.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
51.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 13 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
50.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
50.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 5 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
50.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the ARST 40Similar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+9
51.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 9 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
50.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 9 yds to the ARST 22Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+7
50.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the ARST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
50.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the ARST 10Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-6
50.3%
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Justin Parks return for 6 yds to the ARST 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
14 plays · 51 yds · 5:1353% → 55%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+6
53.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ARST 10Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+6
53.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 6 yds to the ARST 16Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+4
53.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 4 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
53.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+11
54.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 11 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
54.4%
Devin Spencer run for 12 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
56.3%
Devin Spencer run for no gain to the ARST 47Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
56.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+19
54.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 19 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
57.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
57.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the USA 33Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 9
OPP 33
-8
56.5%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Courtney McBride Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the USA 41Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
54.5%
Ryan Heicher punt for 32 yds, downed at the USA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8DOWNS
16 plays · 70 yds · 5:2646% → 46%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
54.5%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+13
54.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for 13 yds to the USA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
54.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 9 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+4
52.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.1%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
54.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 36Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
55.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 10 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
52.8%
(06:26) LOPEZ, Gio pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for WEBB, Jeremiah thrown to the ASU15, clock 06:21. PENALTY ASU Roughing the Passer on PARKS, Justin enforced 15 yards from the USA46 to the ASU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
52.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 11 yds to the ARST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
51.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-10
51.3%
(05:08) LOPEZ, Gio pass to the left complete for 11 yards to BOTHWELL, Fluff caught at the ASU27 and advanced to the ASU13 (THOMAS, Trevian), clock 05:04. PENALTY USA Illegal Formation declined USA Holding on EAGER, Anthony enforced 10 yards from the ASU24 to the ASU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 16
OPP 34
0
52.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 16
OPP 34
+9
54.6%
Gio Lopez run for 9 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+5
54.6%
Arkansas State Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the ARST 20Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 2
OPP 20
-1
53.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9FG
16 plays · 76 yds · 3:0259% → 65%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
58.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+2
58.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 26Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+15
58.0%
South Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Gavin Forsha) to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
61.4%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
61.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 7 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
61.0%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the USA 44Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
58.4%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the USA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
60.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 21 yds to the USA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
60.8%
(01:24) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for RUCKER, Corey broken up by NEELY, Reggie at the USA0, clock 01:21. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on NEELY, Reggie enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the USA6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
60.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the USA 3Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
63.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the USA 3Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
62.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
65.2%
Clune Van Andel 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:5934% → 44%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
66.5%
Gio Lopez run for 12 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
65.5%
Gio Lopez run for 10 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
63.5%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
64.5%
Gio Lopez run for 8 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+7
63.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 7 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
61.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 8 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+42
56.5%
Laith Marjan 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1942% → 40%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
57.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 17Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+15
58.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 15 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
57.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USA 37Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
55.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-1
55.6%
Fluff Bothwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 40Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 2
OWN 40
-5
58.2%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (Jordan Davis) to the USA 35Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+46
60.4%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 46 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1359% → 58%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
58.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 13 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
59.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-2
59.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 32Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-5
58.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 27Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
57.5%
Ryan Heicher punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
13 plays · 20 yds · 4:2642% → 39%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
58.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Anthony Eager for 8 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 2
OWN 34
-10
56.3%
(08:48) QB Keeper LOPEZ, Gio rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the USA43 (JEFFERY, Cam), clock 08:41. PENALTY USA Holding on PRECIADO, Malachi enforced 10 yards from the USA34 to the USA24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+1
59.1%
Gio Lopez run for 1 yd to the USA 25Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+13
60.4%
Gio Lopez run for 13 yds to the USA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
56.7%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
57.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 7 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
55.7%
Gio Lopez run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
50
+4
54.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 4 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-3
55.0%
Gio Lopez sacked by Micaiah Overton for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 49Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-5
56.8%
South Alabama Penalty, Delay Of Game (Braylon McReynolds) to the USA 46Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
59.4%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
61.3%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 40 yds, downed at the ARST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14FG
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:4560% → 69%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+51
60.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 51 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
65.4%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the USA 35Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+23
65.3%
Zak Wallace run for 23 yds to the USA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
65.7%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the USA 12Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
65.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 5 yds to the USA 7Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
65.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
69.4%
Clune Van Andel 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4435% → 52%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for no gain to the USA 25Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
48.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 75 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5540% → 37%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
40.3%
Devin Spencer run for a loss of 8 yards to the ARST 12Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 18
OWN 12
-1
39.8%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 11Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 19
OWN 11
+16
38.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 16 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
36.9%
Ryan Heicher punt for 57 yds , Jamaal Pritchett returns for no gain to the USA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3855% → 52%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
45.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 13 yds to the USA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
44.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-2
42.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 32Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-5
44.7%
(12:11) LOPEZ, Gio scrambles up the middle for a gain of 46 yards to the ASU22 (THOMAS, Trevian;ETIENNE, Websley), clock 12:01. PENALTY Before the snap, USA Illegal Formation on DAVIS, Jordan enforced 5 yards from the USA32 to the USA27. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
46.6%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
48.0%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 5:3043% → 66%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
43.2%
Jaylen Raynor sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 37 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 15
OWN 37
-2
38.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 35Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+17
35.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 17 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
47.3%
Malik Hornsby run for 11 yds to the USA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
47.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 6 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-1
49.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 32Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+11
46.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the USA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
49.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 13 yds to the USA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
48.6%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the USA 5Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Little for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:0731% → 71%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
69.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 7 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+38
68.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 38 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
60.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 4 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+9
60.1%
Anthony Eager run for 9 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
62.3%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-1
63.5%
Gio Lopez run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 23Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+12
67.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 12 yds to the ARST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
62.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-5
62.2%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (Trent Thomas) to the ARST 16Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 15
OPP 16
0
66.5%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 15
OPP 16
-10
70.5%
(02:03) LOPEZ, Gio pass short to the right complete for 3 yards to BOTHWELL, Fluff caught at the ASU13 and advanced to the ASU13 (JOYNER, Dontay), out of bounds, clock 01:56. PENALTY USA Holding on CARNEY, Malachi enforced 10 yards from the ASU16 to the ASU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 25
OPP 26
+26
29.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 1:3345% → 94%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
44.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 8 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+7
46.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 7 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
41.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 7 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+9
43.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 9 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
45.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
49.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
46.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
44.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 8 yds to the USA 16Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-1
35.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 17Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
94.2%
Clune Van Andel 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0522% → 17%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
78.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 14 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
83.0%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:10
Clune Van Andel 34 yd FG GOOD
+71.2
TD · Q4 1:49
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-42
TD · Q3 1:09
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 75 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
-17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com