ARDLINETry the model
OD

Old Dominion 40 at Arkansas State 32

AS
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Win probability · AS
modelAS aheadOD aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDKEY PLAYTDTDTD
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:24 · (00:24) Kneel down by TEAM at ASU33 (team loss of 2), clock 00:18. PENALTY Before the snap, ASU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ASU38 to the ASU33. NO PLAY (replay the down).
No driver breakdown computed for this play yet.
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 14:54
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ARST 23
0.0
Q1 14:29
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 24
+0.3
Q1 14:04
(14:04) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass to the right complete for 8 yards to RUCKER, Corey caught at the ASU32 and advanced to the ASU32, End of Play, clock 13:59. PENALTY Before the snap, ASU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ASU24 to the ASU19. NO PLAY (replay the down).
0.0
Q1 13:37
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 12:55
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 12:48
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 14 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 12:28
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 44
+1.1
Q1 11:57
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Will Jones II return for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 8
0.0
Q1 11:37
Quinn Henicle run for 92 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
-19.7
Q1 11:37
Zak Wallace run for 39 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST down Old Dominion Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ODU 21 for a 1ST down
+3.7
Q1 11:18
Ja'Quez Cross run for 11 yds to the ODU 10 Ja'Quez Cross fumbled, recovered by ODU Patrick Smith-Young P. Smith-Young return for 0 yds
+2.4
Q1 11:17
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ODU 14
-6.3
Q1 10:47
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Pat Conroy for 7 yds to the ODU 21 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:17
Aaron Young run for 2 yds to the ODU 23
0.0
Q1 9:59
Quinn Henicle run for 17 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 9:27
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ODU 44
-0.9
Q1 8:51
Aaron Young run for 5 yds to the ODU 49
-0.3
Q1 8:34
Aaron Young run for 2 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 8:03
Devin Roche run for 21 yds to the ARST 28 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 7:39
Quinn Henicle run for 4 yds to the ARST 24
-0.1
Q1 7:02
Devin Roche run for 23 yds to the ARST 1 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:41
Devin Roche run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 2
0.0
Q1 6:25
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 06:25
+1.1
Q1 6:21
Aaron Young run for 1 yd to the ARST 1
0.0
Q1 5:43
Aaron Young run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
-8.3
Q1 5:41
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 27
+0.5
Q1 5:07
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Denzel Lowry for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 26
+0.2
Q1 4:45
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jeremy Mack Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 19
0.0
Q1 4:02
Ryan Heicher punt for 39 yds
0.0
Q1 3:59
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 03:59
-2.1
Q1 3:58
Aaron Young run for 5 yds to the ODU 47
0.0
Q1 3:28
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ARST 49
0.0
Q1 3:11
Aaron Young run for no gain to the ARST 49
0.0
Q1 2:43
Quinn Henicle run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 49
+0.2
Q1 2:24
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
+1.9
Q1 2:15
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 5 yds to the ODU 44
0.0
Q1 1:56
(01:56) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass up the middle incomplete intended for EALY, Reagan broken up by JONES II, Will at the ODU38, clock 01:53. PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on JONES II, Will enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the ODU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
+0.6
Q1 1:51
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
+0.6
Q1 1:45
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ODU 36
0.0
Q1 1:05
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
+0.1
Q1 0:58
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 36 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
+12.3
Q1 0:53
Quinn Henicle pass incomplete
-7.2
Q1 0:47
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ODU 27
0.0
Q1 0:14
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Myles Alston for 5 yds to the ODU 32
+0.1
Q1 0:01
Timeout Old Dominion, clock 00:01
+0.1
Q1 0:00
Seamus Hall punt for 41 yds
-0.1
Q2 14:59
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for no gain to the ARST 27
+4.3
Q2 14:29
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Kris Trinidad for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 26
0.0
Q2 13:41
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 28
0.0
Q2 13:05
Old Dominion Penalty, Offsides (Jeremy Mack Jr.) to the ARST 33
0.0
Q2 12:48
Ryan Heicher punt for 40 yds
0.0
Q2 12:40
Quinn Henicle run for 3 yds to the ODU 30
-4.3
Q2 12:07
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Pat Conroy for no gain to the ODU 30
0.0
Q2 11:31
Quinn Henicle sacked by Kamari Stephens for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 23
0.0
Q2 10:55
Seamus Hall punt for 51 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 18 yds to the ARST 44
+0.8
Q2 10:45
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 10:45
+4.6
Q2 10:43
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
-0.4
Q2 10:41
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 10:35
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Koa Naotala for a loss of 9 yards to the ARST 35
-0.2
Q2 9:49
Ryan Heicher punt for 41 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 3 yds to the ODU 27
-0.5
Q2 9:36
Tariq Sims run for 1 yd to the ODU 28
-3.7
Q2 8:58
Quinn Henicle run for 1 yd to the ODU 29
0.0
Q2 8:20
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Isiah Paige for 12 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 8:15
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 08:15
+0.1
Q2 8:08
Aaron Young run for no gain to the ODU 41
-1.4
Q2 7:35
Aaron Young run for 3 yds to the ODU 44
0.0
Q2 7:00
Quinn Henicle run for 29 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:42
(06:42) HENICLE, Quinn pass short to the left incomplete intended for LOTT, TJ thrown to the ASU25; QB hurried by WHITEHEAD, Bryan, clock 06:37. PENALTY ASU Holding on PARKS, Justin enforced 10 yards from the ASU27 to the ASU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
-0.3
Q2 6:36
Quinn Henicle sacked by Bryan Whitehead for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 24
0.0
Q2 5:58
Aaron Young run for 24 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
-9.7
Q2 5:53
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 28
+2.1
Q2 5:20
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 16 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 5:00
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the ODU 49
+0.6
Q2 4:37
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ODU 47
+0.2
Q2 4:07
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q2 3:31
Zak Wallace run for 21 yds to the ODU 24 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 2:56
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 2 yds to the ODU 22
+0.5
Q2 2:27
Jaylen Raynor run for 7 yds to the ODU 15
+0.2
Q2 2:00
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 02:00
-2.1
Q2 1:54
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
+18.4
Q2 1:44
Quinn Henicle run for 2 yds to the ODU 42
-11.2
Q2 1:17
Quinn Henicle pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 1:11
Quinn Henicle pass incomplete
+0.3
Q2 1:06
Seamus Hall punt for 46 yds, downed at the ARST 12
+0.2
Q2 0:58
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
+8.5
Q2 0:52
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 3 yds to the ARST 15
0.0
Q2 0:06
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 00:06
-3.1
Q2 0:04
Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 14:58
Quinn Henicle run for 12 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST down Old Dominion Penalty, Personal Foul (Pat Conroy) to the ODU 22 for a 1ST down
-4.7
Q3 14:45
Arkansas State Penalty, Personal Foul (Noah Collins) to the ODU 44 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q3 14:33
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Aaron Young for 2 yds to the ODU 46
-1.5
Q3 14:05
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Aaron Young for 37 yds to the ARST 17 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 13:27
Quinn Henicle run for 7 yds to the ARST 10
-0.3
Q3 12:43
Aaron Young run for 2 yds to the ARST 8
0.0
Q3 12:09
Aaron Young run for 5 yds to the ARST 3 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:59
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 11:59
-0.6
Q3 11:54
Old Dominion Penalty, False Start (Santana Saunders) to the ARST 8
0.0
Q3 11:40
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Pat Conroy for 8 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez PAT MISSED)
-7.0
Q3 11:38
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 26
+2.7
Q3 11:11
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 11:09
Old Dominion Penalty, Defensive Holding (Khian'Dre Harris) to the ARST 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:49
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 19 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q3 10:28
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ODU 34
+1.6
Q3 10:07
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the ODU 33
+0.2
Q3 9:35
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Kris Trinidad for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 35
+0.2
Q3 8:58
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 35 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
+16.0
Q3 8:46
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Pat Conroy for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez PAT MISSED)
-19.5
Q3 8:44
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the ARST 33
+1.5
Q3 8:25
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:47
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 39
0.0
Q3 7:00
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 44
+0.1
Q3 6:29
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 45
0.0
Q3 6:05
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 45
0.0
Q3 6:00
Aaron Young run for 22 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST down
-2.3
Q3 5:22
Quinn Henicle run for 22 yds to the ARST 1 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 4:48
Quinn Henicle run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
-9.4
Q3 4:47
Ja'Quez Cross run for 9 yds to the ARST 34
+4.4
Q3 4:22
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
-0.8
Q3 4:18
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:47
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the ARST 38
0.0
Q3 3:16
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q3 2:55
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 6 yds to the ODU 44
0.0
Q3 2:33
Ja'Quez Cross run for 10 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q3 2:08
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ODU 30
-1.4
Q3 1:35
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 11 yds to the ODU 19 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 1:17
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ODU 17
0.0
Q3 0:43
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 7 yds to the ODU 10
0.0
Q3 0:23
Zak Wallace run for 10 yds for a TD (Jaylen Raynor pass to Corey Rucker for Two-Point Conversion)
+11.4
Q3 0:17
Devin Roche run for 8 yds to the ODU 27
-4.6
Q4 14:59
Devin Roche run for 11 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 14:24
Devin Roche run for 20 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST down
-1.7
Q4 13:33
Devin Roche run for 3 yds to the ARST 39
-0.2
Q4 12:50
Quinn Henicle run for 5 yds to the ARST 34
-0.3
Q4 12:08
(12:08) QB Keeper HENICLE, Quinn rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the ASU28 (PARKS, Justin), clock 12:02. PENALTY ODU Holding on CONROY, Pat enforced 10 yards from the ASU34 to the ASU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
-1.3
Q4 11:49
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Devin Roche for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 47
+0.2
Q4 10:55
Old Dominion Penalty, Delay Of Game (Isiah Paige) to the ODU 48
0.0
Q4 10:41
Seamus Hall punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 17
0.0
Q4 10:38
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 10:38
+3.5
Q4 10:37
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 18
0.0
Q4 10:11
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:44
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Ricardo Williams Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 27
-0.1
Q4 9:06
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 9 yds to the ARST 36
0.0
Q4 8:31
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q4 8:15
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
+0.2
Q4 8:11
(08:11) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for JONES, Adam thrown to the ODU30, clock 08:07. PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on SMITH-YOUNG, Patrick enforced 15 yards to the ODU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
0.0
Q4 8:07
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the ODU 29
+1.0
Q4 7:38
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 8 yds to the ODU 21 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 7:17
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
+0.1
Q4 7:13
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 12 yds to the ODU 9 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 6:51
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
-0.6
Q4 6:46
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the ODU 8
0.0
Q4 6:10
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
-1.3
Q4 6:03
Clune Van Andel 26 yd FG GOOD
+3.1
Q4 5:57
Aaron Young run for 11 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST down
-1.0
Q4 5:15
Quinn Henicle run for 7 yds to the ODU 39
0.0
Q4 4:48
Aaron Young run for 3 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST down
-0.8
Q4 3:54
Old Dominion Penalty, False Start (Santana Saunders) to the ODU 37
-1.4
Q4 3:51
Aaron Young run for 5 yds to the ODU 42
+0.1
Q4 3:11
Aaron Young run for 3 yds to the ODU 45
-1.4
Q4 2:26
Quinn Henicle run for 12 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST down
-0.7
Q4 2:00
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 02:00
-1.0
Q4 1:58
Aaron Young run for 5 yds to the ARST 38
-0.4
Q4 1:56
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 01:56
+0.2
Q4 1:54
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ARST 34
0.0
Q4 1:43
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 01:43
0.0
Q4 1:43
Quinn Henicle run for 1 yd to the ARST 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:37
Timeout Arkansas State, clock 01:37
0.0
Q4 1:35
(01:35) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at ASU35 (team loss of 2), clock 01:26.
0.0
Q4 0:48
(00:48) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at ASU38 (team loss of 3), clock 00:46.
+1.0
Q4 0:24
(00:24) Kneel down by TEAM at ASU33 (team loss of 2), clock 00:18. PENALTY Before the snap, ASU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ASU38 to the ASU33. NO PLAY (replay the down).
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 11:37
Quinn Henicle run for 92 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
-19.7
TD · Q3 8:46
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Pat Conroy for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez PAT MISSED)
-19.5
TD · Q2 1:54
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
+18.4
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com