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CARK

Central Arkansas 31 at Arkansas State 34

ARST
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:54 · Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Daylon Land return for 8 yds to the CARK 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialOffense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Pregame prior+15.2Home team on offense+4.6Garbage-time factor+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score differential+0.9Offense timeouts+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:36: ShunDerrick Powell run for 23 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK) — CARK win probability +13.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:38: ShunDerrick Powell run for 81 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK) — CARK win probability +10.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:33: Will McElvain pass complete to Tyion Berry for 23 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK) — CARK win probability +23.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 0:55: Darius Hale run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK) — CARK win probability +60.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:03: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +65.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10CARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:47ARST 4th & 10 at CARK 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:53CARK 4th & 10 at CARK 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:20ARST 4th & 5 at CARK 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:56CARK 4th & 3 at CARK 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:37ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 49, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:00CARK 4th & 11 at CARK 2, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:54ARST 4th & 2 at CARK 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−0.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:09CARK 4th & 23 at CARK 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−3.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:11ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:10CARK 4th & 11 at ARST 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:02CARK 4th & 6 at ARST 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−5.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:47ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:48CARK 4th & 13 at ARST 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:19ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:23ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−7.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:18CARK 4th & 12 at CARK 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−3.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:13ARST 4th & 13 at CARK 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−1.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:51CARK 4th & 5 at CARK 24, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−1.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:25ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.6%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 0:37ARST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:36CARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:40ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:15ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:38CARK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:33CARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:55CARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.9
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:03ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:0373% → 73%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
72.7%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+19
72.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 19 yds to the CARK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
72.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 21 yds to the CARK 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
72.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
72.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the CARK 26Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
72.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
72.5%
Clune Van Andel 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4928% → 28%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
72.5%
Will McElvain pass complete to Kam Robinson for 5 yds to the CARK 25Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+12
72.3%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 12 yds to the CARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
72.2%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 1 yd to the CARK 38Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
72.1%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 4 yds to the CARK 42Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-5
71.9%
Central Arkansas Penalty, False Start (TaMuarion Wilson) to the CARK 37Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
72.3%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+2
72.4%
Trace Beard punt for 45 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 2 yds to the ARST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3FG
19 plays · 75 yds · 7:2272% → 73%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
72.1%
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
72.2%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
71.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
71.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 3 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+14
71.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 14 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
72.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
72.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 5 yds to the CARK 46Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+6
72.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the CARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
72.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 2 yds to the CARK 38Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
72.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the CARK 33Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+5
72.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 5 yds to the CARK 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
72.6%
(05:49) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RUCKER, Corey thrown to the UCA0, clock 05:45. PENALTY UCA Illegal Substitution declined UCA Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, TD enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the UCA13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
72.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the CARK 10Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
72.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+8
72.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the CARK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
72.5%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the CARK 2Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-8
72.5%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by David Walker and Ashtyn Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the CARK 10Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
72.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 5 yds to the CARK 5Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
73.4%
Clune Van Andel 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1628% → 27%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
72.4%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 1 yd to the CARK 16Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+8
72.5%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 8 yds to the CARK 24Similar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-2
72.2%
Darius Hale run for a loss of 2 yards to the CARK 22Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
73.0%
Trace Beard punt for 38 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for no gain to the ARST 22 Central Arkansas Penalty, Illegal Formation (TaMuarion Wilson) to the ARST 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1674% → 73%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
74.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
74.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
72.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
72.9%
Ryan Heicher punt for 48 yds, downed at the CARK 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 2:2727% → 26%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
73.1%
Darius Hale run for 4 yds to the CARK 7Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 7
0
73.3%
Darius Hale run for no gain to the CARK 7Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
73.8%
Darius Hale run for no gain to the CARK 7Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 6
OWN 7
-3
74.2%
Central Arkansas Penalty, False Start (TaMuarion Wilson) to the CARK 4Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 9
OWN 4
-2
74.2%
Central Arkansas Penalty, False Start (L.J. Hewitt) to the CARK 2Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 11
OWN 2
+19
74.2%
Trace Beard punt for 47 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 19 yds to the CARK 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4874% → 75%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
73.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the CARK 28Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+1
73.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the CARK 27Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+5
75.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the CARK 22Similar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 2
OPP 22
-8
75.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Daylon Land return for 8 yds to the CARK 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:3725% → 23%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
75.0%
Will McElvain pass complete to ShunDerrick Powell for 9 yds to the CARK 37Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+2
74.2%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 2 yds to the CARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
75.1%
(08:32) MCELVAIN, Will pass up the middle complete for -6 yards to POWELL, ShunDerrick caught at the UCA36 and advanced to the UCA33 (HODGES, Justin), clock 08:26. PENALTY ASU Face mask on HODGES, Justin enforced 15 yards from the UCA39 to the ASU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
73.7%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
73.9%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-8
75.3%
Will McElvain sacked by Marvin Ham and Ian Jeffries for a loss of 8 yards to the CARK 46Similar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 18
OWN 46
-5
77.0%
Central Arkansas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CARK 41Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 23
OWN 41
0
77.1%
Trace Beard punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:5477% → 76%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
76.8%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
76.9%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
76.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Little for 7 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
76.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 1 yd to the ARST 36Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
76.2%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 36Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
75.7%
Central Arkansas Penalty, Offsides (David Walker) to the ARST 41Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
76.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
75.6%
Ryan Heicher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trejan Bridges at the CARK 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:5624% → 23%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
76.5%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
76.9%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+35
77.6%
Will McElvain pass complete to ShunDerrick Powell for 35 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
74.5%
ShunDerrick Powell run for a loss of 4 yards to the CARK 48Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+3
76.2%
Will McElvain run for 3 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
75.9%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
77.3%
Will McElvain punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:3171% → 73%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Malik Hornsby for 4 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+20
62.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 20 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
64.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 13 yds to the CARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
65.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
65.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+32
64.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 32 yds to the CARK 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
66.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
66.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the CARK 1Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.4%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:3825% → 18%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
75.5%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 5 yds to the CARK 19Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+12
75.8%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 12 yds to the CARK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
76.2%
Will McElvain pass complete to ShunDerrick Powell for 1 yd to the CARK 32Similar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
82.0%
(14:52) MCELVAIN, Will pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BRIDGES, Trejan thrown to the ASU12, clock 14:47. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on HODGES, Justin enforced 15 yards to the ASU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 13FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:4319% → 22%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-12
80.9%
Central Arkansas Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Will McElvain) to the ARST 40Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 22
OPP 40
-2
82.9%
Will McElvain pass complete to Darius Hale for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 42Similar
Q3 14:30
3RD & 24
OPP 42
+18
83.4%
Will McElvain run for 18 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
77.7%
Jake Gaster 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1379% → 79%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
78.7%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 15Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
78.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 5 yds to the ARST 20Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
78.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
78.2%
Ryan Heicher punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trejan Bridges at the ARST 43Similar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
78.5%
Arkansas State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Justin Parks) to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 15TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 2:0423% → 37%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
77.5%
Will McElvain pass complete to Kam Robinson for 10 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
76.7%
Will McElvain pass complete to Darius Hale for 10 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
76.3%
Kam Robinson run for no gain to the ARST 23Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
63.3%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 23 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:4870% → 83%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
70.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
70.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+8
69.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 8 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
73.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 16 yds to the CARK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
73.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the CARK 33Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
74.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+19
73.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 19 yds to the CARK 14 for a 1ST down Central Arkansas Penalty, Personal Foul (Dillon Williams) to the CARK 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
74.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the CARK 2Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.0%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:4519% → 17%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
81.2%
Will McElvain pass complete to Arlie Lee for 11 yds to the CARK 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
81.0%
Will McElvain pass complete to Malachi Henry for 11 yds to the CARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
80.3%
Will McElvain pass complete to Malachi Henry for 6 yds to the CARK 44Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
79.7%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+17
80.1%
Will McElvain pass complete to Trejan Bridges for 17 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
78.9%
Darius Hale run for 2 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
79.5%
Darius Hale run for no gain to the ARST 37Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 8
OPP 37
-5
79.9%
Central Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Justin Lairy) to the ARST 42Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 13
OPP 42
0
81.2%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
83.0%
Will McElvain punt for 40 yds, downed at the ARST 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
9 plays · 98 yds · 4:2882% → 98%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
82.1%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 5Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+58
82.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 58 yds to the CARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
84.9%
Zak Wallace run for 6 yds to the CARK 31Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+5
85.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the CARK 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
85.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the CARK 17Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+4
86.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the CARK 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
87.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the CARK 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
87.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the CARK 5Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
97.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 19TD
3 plays · 89 yds · 0:315% → 16%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
94.9%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 8 yds to the CARK 19Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+81
84.0%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 81 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1090% → 89%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
90.1%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
90.0%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
90.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
89.4%
Ryan Heicher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trejan Bridges at the CARK 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 21TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:4115% → 41%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
85.2%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-1
85.7%
Will McElvain pass complete to Darius Hale for a loss of 1 yard to the CARK 16Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+23
86.5%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 23 yds to the CARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
83.2%
Will McElvain pass complete to Kam Robinson for 6 yds to the CARK 45Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+32
82.9%
Darius Hale run for 32 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
59.2%
Will McElvain pass complete to Tyion Berry for 23 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0972% → 69%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
72.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+2
75.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
74.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
73.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-7
72.1%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by David Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 35Similar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
68.5%
Ryan Heicher punt for 42 yds , Trejan Bridges returns for no gain to the CARK 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0133% → 31%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
67.1%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-2
67.5%
ShunDerrick Powell run for a loss of 2 yards to the CARK 21Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 12
OWN 21
0
68.4%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 12
OWN 21
+33
69.4%
Trace Beard punt for 47 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 33 yds to the CARK 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5175% → 69%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
75.0%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the CARK 33Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
76.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
74.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 8
OPP 33
-5
71.7%
Arkansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CARK 38Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
69.3%
Ryan Heicher punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Trejan Bridges at the CARK 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1733% → 31%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
67.4%
Will McElvain run for 3 yds to the CARK 9Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+6
68.3%
Will McElvain run for 6 yds to the CARK 15Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+4
68.3%
Darius Hale run for 4 yds to the CARK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
66.6%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
67.2%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+5
69.2%
Will McElvain run for 5 yds to the CARK 24Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+4
69.5%
Trace Beard punt for 55 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 4 yds to the ARST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26FUMBLE
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:5177% → 84%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
76.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 24Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
77.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
80.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 10 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
84.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
85.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-8
83.6%
Jaylen Raynor sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the ARST 35 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by CARK Javeon Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 27TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 0:5038% → 96%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
61.7%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 2 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+29
64.6%
ShunDerrick Powell pass complete to Malachi Henry for 29 yds to the ARST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.4%
Darius Hale run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 0:5216% → 93%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
16.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
15.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
13.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+42
11.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 42 yds to the CARK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
22.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for a loss of 5 yards to the CARK 27Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+20
14.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 20 yds to the CARK 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
80.4%
Will McElvain pass complete to ShunDerrick Powell for 15 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:03
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
+65.5
TD · Q4 0:55
Darius Hale run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK)
-60.2
TD · Q4 10:33
Will McElvain pass complete to Tyion Berry for 23 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK)
-23.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com