ARST
Arkansas State 16 at UL Monroe 28
ULM2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Malone Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
ULM · Drive 1TD · 4 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
16.5%
0.0
Q1 15:00
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 6 yds to the ULM 31 UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive holding (Rico Powers Jr.) to the ULM 21
18.5%
+2.0
Q1 14:20
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 5 yds to the ULM 26
18.7%
+0.2
Q1 13:34
Brandon Greil 32 Yd Interception Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)
10.8%
-7.9
ULM · Drive 2PUNT · 8 plays · 15 yds
Q1 13:34
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
9.8%
-1.0
Q1 13:34
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 6 yds to the ULM 31
10.8%
+1.0
Q1 12:56
Aidan Armenta run for 2 yds to the ULM 33
10.3%
-0.5
Q1 12:11
Braylon McReynolds run for 6 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST down
10.3%
0.0
Q1 11:36
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the ULM 40
10.4%
+0.1
Q1 10:54
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Tyler Griffin
10.5%
+0.1
Q1 10:48
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nate Sullivan Jr., broken up by AG McGhee
10.4%
-0.1
Q1 10:42
Makenzie Ryan punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARST 40 , Aaron Blancas returns for 19 yds to the ARST 40
10.4%
0.0
ARST · Drive 3INT · 2 plays · 4 yds
Q1 10:30
Corey Rucker run for 4 yds to the ARST 44
8.9%
-1.5
Q1 9:59
Kristopher Robinson return for no gain to the ULM 48
8.9%
0.0
ULM · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · 1 yds
Q1 9:49
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jonathan Bibbs
10.9%
+2.0
Q1 9:40
Aidan Armenta run for 1 yd to the ULM 49
10.9%
0.0
Q1 9:01
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jake Godfrey
10.9%
0.0
Q1 8:56
Makenzie Ryan punt for 41 yds
10.9%
-0.1
ARST · Drive 5PUNT · 6 plays · 38 yds
Q1 8:49
Devin Spencer run for 6 yds to the ARST 16
9.5%
-1.4
Q1 8:24
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 30 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST down
9.5%
0.0
Q1 7:55
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the ARST 48
9.0%
-0.5
Q1 7:19
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker
9.0%
0.0
Q1 7:14
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Devin Spencer
9.0%
0.0
Q1 7:04
Jackson Waller punt for 39 yds
9.1%
+0.1
ULM · Drive 6PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q1 6:58
Braylon McReynolds run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 10
10.2%
+1.1
Q1 6:18
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Brandon Buckhaulter for 12 yds to the ULM 22
10.9%
+0.7
Q1 5:37
Hunter Herring run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 20
10.9%
0.0
Q1 4:58
Makenzie Ryan punt for 43 yds
10.9%
0.0
ARST · Drive 7FG · 8 plays · 30 yds
Q1 4:51
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 15 yds to the ULM 48 for a 1ST down
9.9%
-1.0
Q1 4:16
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the ULM 47
9.6%
-0.3
Q1 3:42
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by D'Arco Perkins-McAllister
9.6%
0.0
Q1 3:35
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Noah Flemmings for 0 yards to the ULM 47 for a 1ST down UL Monroe Penalty, Defensive holding (Kamrin Canterbury) to the ULM 37 for a 1ST down
9.6%
0.0
Q1 3:12
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ULM 33
9.5%
0.0
Q1 2:51
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers
9.5%
0.0
Q1 2:44
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli
9.5%
0.0
Q1 2:35
Clune Van Andel 51 Yd Field Goal
8.6%
-0.9
ULM · Drive 8PUNT · 7 plays · 19 yds
Q1 2:35
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
8.9%
+0.4
Q1 2:35
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 6 yds to the ULM 31
9.4%
+0.5
Q1 2:11
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Brandon Buckhaulter for 14 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST down
9.4%
0.0
Q1 1:38
Zach Palmer-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 44
9.7%
+0.3
Q1 0:55
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jake Godfrey
9.7%
0.0
Q1 0:45
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Rico Powers Jr., broken up by Cody Sigler
9.6%
-0.1
Q1 0:39
Makenzie Ryan punt for 32 yds
9.6%
0.0
ARST · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · 13 yds
Q1 0:33
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 4 yds to the ARST 28
8.3%
-1.3
Q2 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 31 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST down
8.3%
0.0
Q2 14:35
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ULM 37
8.3%
-13.0
Q2 14:03
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Dylan Howell for a loss of 13 yards to the 50 yard line
8.3%
0.0
Q2 13:19
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Kevontay Wells for a loss of 13 yards to the ARST 37
8.5%
+0.1
Q2 12:40
Jackson Waller punt for 46 yds UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive holding (Seidrion Langston) to the ULM 8
8.8%
+0.3
ARST · Drive 10MISSED FG · 8 plays · 54 yds
Q2 15:00
Clune Van Andel 23 Yard Field Goal Missed
21.4%
+13.1
Q2 0:46
Luke Stagg kickoff for 36 yds , Cedric Hawkins return for 12 yds to the ARST 41
34.8%
-1.3
Q2 0:40
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the ULM 46 for a 1ST down
29.4%
-5.4
Q2 0:32
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker
28.5%
-0.9
Q2 0:25
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 5 yds to the ULM 41
28.3%
-0.2
Q2 0:21
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ULM 41
28.0%
-0.3
Q2 0:14
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 21 yds to the ULM 20 for a 1ST down
28.6%
+0.6
Q2 0:08
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by D'Arco Perkins-McAllister for a 1ST down UL Monroe Penalty, Defensive pass interference (D'Arco Perkins-McAllister) to the ULM 5 for a 1ST down
27.7%
-1.0
ULM · Drive 11TD · 12 plays · 92 yds
Q2 12:28
Braylon McReynolds run for 24 yds to the ULM 32 for a 1ST down
10.1%
+1.3
Q2 11:50
Braylon McReynolds run for 4 yds to the ULM 36
10.8%
+0.7
Q2 11:14
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Tyler Griffin for 16 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST down
10.8%
0.0
Q2 10:31
Aidan Armenta run for 4 yds to the ARST 44
12.4%
+1.6
Q2 9:50
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 3 yds to the ARST 41
12.4%
0.0
Q2 9:06
Aidan Armenta run for 9 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST down
12.7%
+0.2
Q2 8:23
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Brandon Buckhaulter
11.5%
-1.1
Q2 8:18
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Rico Powers Jr.
11.5%
0.0
Q2 8:13
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Dorian Lewis for 6 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Trenton Alan Yowe) to the ARST 13 for a 1ST down
10.8%
-0.7
Q2 8:02
Aidan Armenta run for 1 yd to the ARST 12
10.8%
0.0
Q2 7:16
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Rico Powers Jr. for 4 yds to the ARST 8
10.8%
0.0
Q2 6:28
Julian Nixon 8 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Luke Stagg Kick)
20.1%
+9.3
ARST · Drive 12DOWNS · 10 plays · 37 yds
Q2 6:28
Luke Stagg kickoff for 45 yds , Reed Linder return for 7 yds to the ARST 27
18.6%
-1.5
Q2 6:22
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy Cobb
15.7%
-2.9
Q2 6:19
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 5 yds to the ARST 32
15.7%
0.0
Q2 5:50
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST down
15.7%
+0.1
Q2 5:28
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the ARST 40
15.4%
-0.3
Q2 4:44
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 21 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST down
15.5%
+0.1
Q2 4:22
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jabari Bush for 4 yds to the ULM 35
14.9%
-0.6
Q2 3:47
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 36
14.9%
0.0
Q2 3:08
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jabari Bush, broken up by Kamrin Canterbury
14.9%
0.0
Q2 3:02
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli, broken up by David Godsey Jr.
15.3%
+0.4
ULM · Drive 13TD · 6 plays · 64 yds
Q2 2:53
Aidan Armenta run for 3 yds to the ULM 39
18.8%
+3.5
Q2 2:23
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the ULM 42
19.1%
+0.2
Q2 2:00
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 6 yds to the ULM 48 for a 1ST down
19.0%
-0.1
Q2 1:37
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
19.3%
+0.3
Q2 0:59
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Tyler Griffin for 13 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST down
19.3%
0.0
Q2 0:46
Jake Godfrey 37 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Luke Stagg Kick)
36.2%
+16.9
ARST · Drive 14FUMBLE · 5 plays · 14 yds
Q3 15:00
Luke Stagg kickoff for 43 yds , Cedric Hawkins return for 6 yds to the ARST 28
34.6%
+7.0
Q3 12:25
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ARST 34
31.7%
-8.7
Q3 12:20
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 3 yds to the ARST 37
31.7%
0.0
Q3 12:18
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST down
31.7%
0.0
Q3 12:18
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 45 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ULM Noah Flemmings Raynor,Jaylen rush middle for 3 yards to the ASU45, fumble by Raynor,Jaylen recovered by ULM Flemmings,Noah, Flemmings,Noah rush (Raynor,Jaylen).
30.7%
-1.1
ARST · Drive 15FG · 14 plays · 53 yds
Q3 15:00
Devin Spencer run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 32
40.5%
+5.8
Q3 3:16
Devin Spencer run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 33
49.1%
-7.3
Q3 2:53
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jaeden Calender for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 30
49.1%
0.0
Q3 2:12
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker for a 1ST down UL Monroe Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Daniel Knudsen) to the ARST 32 for a 1ST down
50.7%
+1.6
Q3 1:41
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
50.7%
0.0
Q3 1:41
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli for a 1ST down UL Monroe Penalty, Defensive pass interference (D'Arco Perkins-McAllister) to the ULM 44 for a 1ST down
50.2%
-0.5
Q3 1:41
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the ULM 40
49.9%
-0.3
Q3 1:41
Devin Spencer run for 11 yds to the ULM 29 for a 1ST down
49.5%
-0.4
Q4 14:59
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 11 yds to the ULM 21
48.8%
-0.7
Q4 14:21
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Aaron Blancas for 6 yds Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST Tyler Fortenberry for a 1ST down
48.8%
0.0
Q4 12:49
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Dylan Howell for a loss of 6 yards to the ULM 21
49.6%
+0.8
Q4 12:33
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Kenyon Clay
49.6%
0.0
Q4 12:31
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jabari Bush for 8 yds to the ULM 13
49.6%
0.0
Q4 12:09
Clune Van Andel 30 Yd Field Goal
33.9%
-15.7
ULM · Drive 16TD · 4 plays · 45 yds
Q3 12:18
Braylon McReynolds run for no gain to the ARST 45
38.2%
+7.6
Q3 12:18
Braylon McReynolds run for 8 yds to the ARST 37
38.2%
0.0
Q3 12:18
Brandon Buckhaulter run for 19 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST down
38.4%
+0.1
Q3 9:57
Braylon McReynolds run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Stagg KICK)
64.6%
+26.2
ARST · Drive 17FG · 13 plays · 25 yds
Q3 9:57
Luke Stagg kickoff for 42 yds , Cedric Hawkins return for 27 yds to the 50 yard line
64.0%
-0.6
Q3 9:49
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 2 yds to the ULM 48
56.2%
-7.8
Q3 9:22
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the ULM 43
57.0%
+0.8
Q3 8:56
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli, broken up by David Godsey Jr.
56.3%
-0.7
Q3 8:53
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 5 yds to the ULM 38 for a 1ST down
56.8%
+0.4
Q3 8:32
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli
56.8%
0.0
Q3 8:26
Corey Rucker run for 4 yds to the ULM 34
56.8%
0.0
Q3 8:01
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jabari Bush
56.1%
-0.7
Q3 7:53
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 16 yds to the ULM 18 for a 1ST down
57.0%
+0.9
Q3 7:23
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ULM 14
56.1%
-0.9
Q3 7:06
Jaylen Raynor sacked by James Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the ULM 24
56.1%
0.0
Q3 6:28
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jabari Bush for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 25
53.2%
-2.9
Q3 5:44
Clune Van Andel 43 Yd Field Goal
47.7%
-5.5
ULM · Drive 18PUNT · 6 plays · 6 yds
Q3 5:44
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
48.8%
+1.1
Q3 5:43
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Julian Nixon for 7 yds to the ULM 32
54.0%
+5.2
Q3 5:03
UL Monroe Penalty, false start (Jay Mickle) to the ULM 27
54.0%
0.0
Q3 4:37
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the ULM 28
56.3%
+2.3
Q3 3:58
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 3 yds to the ULM 31
57.0%
+0.7
Q3 3:24
Makenzie Ryan punt for 36 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 1 yd to the ARST 34
56.4%
-0.7
ULM · Drive 19TD · 12 plays · 75 yds
Q4 12:09
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 60 yds
27.3%
-6.6
Q4 12:08
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 11 yds to the ULM 36 for a 1ST down
32.9%
+5.6
Q4 11:26
Tyrell Reed Jr. run for 2 yds to the ULM 38
33.4%
+0.4
Q4 10:38
UL Monroe Penalty, delay of game (Aidan Armenta) to the ULM 33
35.9%
+2.5
Q4 10:14
UL Monroe Penalty, false start (Kaliem Croswell) to the ULM 28
35.3%
-0.6
Q4 9:56
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Rico Powers Jr. for 21 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST down
37.8%
+2.5
Q4 9:11
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the ARST 48
43.9%
+6.1
Q4 8:30
Braylon McReynolds run for 6 yds to the ARST 42
43.9%
0.0
Q4 7:49
Hunter Herring run for 2 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST down
44.7%
+0.8
Q4 7:08
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 18 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST down
44.9%
+0.2
Q4 6:20
Jake Godfrey run for 20 yds to the ARST 2 for a 1ST down
49.7%
+4.7
Q4 5:36
Zach Palmer-Smith 2 Yd Run (Luke Stagg Kick)
79.7%
+30.1
ARST · Drive 20DOWNS · 17 plays · 62 yds
Q4 5:36
Luke Stagg kickoff for 58 yds
79.8%
0.0
Q4 5:36
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 9 yds to the ARST 34
70.4%
-9.4
Q4 5:16
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy Cobb
70.4%
0.0
Q4 5:12
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST down
71.5%
+1.1
Q4 4:57
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli, broken up by D'Arco Perkins-McAllister
70.4%
-1.1
Q4 4:50
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jabari Bush Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Chauncy Cobb) to the ARST 34
70.4%
0.0
Q4 4:47
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 23 yds to the ULM 43 for a 1ST down
70.4%
0.0
Q4 4:24
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 13 yds to the ULM 30 for a 1ST down
73.1%
+2.7
Q4 4:06
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the ULM 18 for a 1ST down
73.1%
0.0
Q4 3:55
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 2 yds to the ULM 16
73.1%
0.0
Q4 3:34
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds to the ULM 10
73.1%
0.0
Q4 3:00
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 12 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor
73.5%
+0.4
Q4 2:22
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ULM 7 for a 1ST down
73.5%
0.0
Q4 2:02
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker
72.4%
-1.1
Q4 1:59
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 4 yds to the ULM 3
72.4%
0.0
Q4 1:27
Jaylen Raynor sacked by D'Arco Perkins-McAllister for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 8
73.3%
+0.9
Q4 1:20
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 13
73.3%
0.0
ULM · Drive 21Uncategorized · 4 plays · 56 yds
Q4 1:08
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 3 yds to the ULM 16
79.9%
+6.6
Q4 1:07
Zach Palmer-Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 13
79.9%
0.0
Q4 1:03
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 56 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST down
79.9%
0.0
Q4 0:34
Aidan Armenta run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 31
79.9%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:36
Zach Palmer-Smith 2 Yd Run (Luke Stagg Kick)
+30.1
TD · Q3 9:57
Braylon McReynolds run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Stagg KICK)
+26.2
TD · Q2 0:46
Jake Godfrey 37 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Luke Stagg Kick)
+16.9