2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreARST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:07 · Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:15: Dre'lyn Washington run for 46 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +6.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:23: Zylan Perry run for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +4.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:47: Bill Davis run for 13 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:07: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ARST win probability +8.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:52: Zak Wallace run for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ARST win probability +3.7 pts (now 5%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 13:51ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 44, tiedClose callPunted · 17.4% before the snapGo for it17.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 12:54UL 4th & 7 at UL 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snapGo for it82.2%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.3%average punt
- Q1 5:17ARST 4th & 11 at UL 32, down 7Close callWent for it · 17.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.5%−0.127% to convertField goal17.6%51% to makePunt17.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:04UL 4th & 7 at ARST 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snapGo for it82.2%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call82.3%62% to makePunt81.0%−1.3average punt
- Q1 0:00ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 31, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snapGo for it16.6%−0.918% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.5%average punt
- Q2 9:58ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 29, down 17Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it12.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 5:25ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 45, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.914% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q3 10:54UL 4th & 6 at ARST 28, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.7%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call97.7%60% to makePunt96.0%−1.7average punt
- Q4 13:28ARST 4th & 8 at midfield, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 2:27UL 4th & 6 at UL 29, up 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 9:07UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.3%97% to makeGo for two82.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:15UL Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.3%97% to makeGo for two86.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:23UL Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:47UL Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:07ARST Touchdown, down 25 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick3.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:52ARST Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick3.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:57UL Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:34UL Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:46UL Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:48ARST Touchdown, down 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARSTDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0920% → 20%
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
79.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 6 yds to the ARST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4980% → 79%
Q1 12:54
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
79.4%
Nathan Torney punt for 46 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for no gain to the ARST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1821% → 21%
ULDrive 4TD7 plays · 71 yds · 3:1379% → 81%
Q1 11:43
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+13
79.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dalen Cambre for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+17
79.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jaydon Johnson for 17 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
80.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 20 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5DOWNS10 plays · 43 yds · 3:5020% → 20%
Q1 8:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
79.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Malik Hornsby for no gain to the ARST 32Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
79.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 16 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
79.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 10 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
79.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 5 yds to the UL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-4
78.9%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Mason Narcisse and K.C. Ossai for a loss of 4 yards to the UL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6FG6 plays · 41 yds · 2:0780% → 80%
ARSTDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 2:5920% → 19%
Q1 2:02
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+5
80.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 5 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-2
80.2%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jordan Lawson and Mason Narcisse for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 28Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+3
80.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 3 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+4
80.8%
Ryan Heicher punt for 37 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 4 yds to the UL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD6 plays · 64 yds · 2:4581% → 88%
ARSTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 2:0914% → 13%
ULDrive 10TD5 plays · 41 yds · 2:1789% → 93%
ARSTDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:518% → 7%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
91.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
91.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the UL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-13
92.0%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jordan Lawson for a loss of 13 yards to the ARST 40Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
92.8%
Ryan Heicher punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD8 plays · 94 yds · 3:3093% → 98%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+94
93.3%
Bill Davis run for 94 yds Louisiana Penalty, Offensive Holding (Terrance Carter) to the UL 5Similar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+47
94.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 47 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
94.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 9 yds to the ARST 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD13 plays · 83 yds · 1:342% → 10%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
98.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 8 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+7
98.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
98.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 11 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
98.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 15 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
97.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 4 yds to the UL 24Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
97.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 4 yds to the UL 20Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
89.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.1%
(00:07) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at UL24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15FG9 plays · 47 yds · 4:0697% → 99%
Q3 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+25
97.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 25 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
97.5%
Louisiana Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jax Harrington) to the ARST 40Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 18
OPP 40
+7
97.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 7 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+5
97.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 5 yds to the ARST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:021% → 5%
ULDrive 17TD6 plays · 70 yds · 2:4597% → 100%
Q3 7:55
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+15
96.4%
Arkansas State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Nate Martey) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
50
+22
96.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 22 yds to the ARST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
96.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Bill Davis for 18 yds to the ARST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18INT8 plays · 21 yds · 2:581% → 0%
Q3 5:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
99.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 6 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 7 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
99.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 5 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 7
50
-4
99.7%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jordan Lawson for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 46Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Tyree Skipper return for no gain to the UL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD5 plays · 80 yds · 2:19100% → 100%
ARSTDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:41100% → 100%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Ty Stamey for 7 yds to the UL 27Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+15
99.8%
Arkansas State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Justin Parks) to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
99.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Ty Stamey for 19 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+6
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Trayv'on Culbert for 6 yds to the ARST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Chaz Ward for 2 yds to the ARST 12Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Chandler Fields run for 12 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD8 plays · 79 yds · 4:520% → 0%
ULDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24END OF GAME5 plays · 13 yds · 1:340% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:07
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-8.2
TD · Q2 12:15
Dre'lyn Washington run for 46 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q2 7:23
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+4.3