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ARST

Arkansas State 27 at Georgia State 20

GAST
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:56 · Ryan Heicher punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jyron Gilmore at the GAST 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense−1.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:32: Zak Wallace run for 1 yd for a TD Georgia State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the GAST 0 (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +13.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:03: Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 12 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +24.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:03: Ja'Quez Cross run for 15 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +14.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:18: Braeden McAlister 48 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +7.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:52: Liam Rickman 40 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +8.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:07ARST 4th & 3 at GAST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    41.4%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:49GAST 4th & 4 at ARST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:55GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:56ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:56ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:56GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:16ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 29, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:28GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:20GAST 4th & 1 at ARST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%−5.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:08GAST 4th & 6 at ARST 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%−2.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:33ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:31ARST 4th & 5 at GAST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−11.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:35GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:18GAST 4th & 6 at ARST 30, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.6%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:59ARST 4th & 16 at GAST 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:49GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 40, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:52GAST 4th & 10 at ARST 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−5.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:15ARST 4th & 8 at GAST 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:17GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:34ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:32ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:03GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:03ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:4651% → 51%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
48.9%
Zak Wallace run for 12 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
49.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 7 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
49.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+4
49.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
49.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the GAST 46Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+4
49.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
49.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the GAST 36Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+1
49.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the GAST 35Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
49.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+1
49.4%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the GAST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:4750% → 54%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
49.7%
Freddie Brock run for no gain to the GAST 34Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+31
49.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ted Hurst for 31 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
50.6%
Freddie Brock run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 36Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+2
50.7%
Freddie Brock run for 2 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+5
50.6%
Michel Dukes run for 5 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+5
50.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 5 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
54.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ted Hurst for 24 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3347% → 51%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
53.2%
RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep up the middle complete for 75 yards to RUCKER, Corey caught at the GSU25 and advanced to the GSU0, TOUCHDOWN AST, score nullified by penalty, clock 07:07 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY AST Holding on ZOLLICOFFER, Elijah enforced 10 yards from the AST25 to the AST15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
53.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 16Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+11
53.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 11 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+19
54.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 19 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
53.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+26
53.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 26 yds to the GAST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
52.8%
Georgia State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Izaiah Guy) to the GAST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
52.8%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the GAST 13Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
48.7%
Zak Wallace run for 13 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3351% → 51%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.7%
Freddie Brock run for 7 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
51.5%
Freddie Brock run for 2 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
51.3%
DJ Murray Jr. run for 6 yds to the GAST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
52.2%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
51.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ted Hurst for 4 yds to the GAST 44Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
51.9%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+10
51.0%
James Allen punt for 45 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 10 yds to the ARST 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:4549% → 49%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
50.7%
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the ARST 10Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+11
50.7%
Devin Spencer run for 11 yds to the ARST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
50.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 9 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+4
49.5%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
50.0%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Kevin Swint and Cam Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+11
50.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 11 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-2
49.5%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Christian Lorenzo for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 38Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
51.2%
Ryan Heicher punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jyron Gilmore at the GAST 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6INT
12 plays · 45 yds · 5:0952% → 53%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
51.9%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
51.8%
Zach Gibson run for 9 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
52.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Freddie Brock for 2 yds to the GAST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
52.5%
Michel Dukes run for 6 yds to the GAST 38Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+13
54.3%
Michel Dukes run for 13 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
55.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to DJ Riles for 4 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+20
55.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Avion McBride for 20 yds to the ARST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
55.7%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+15
55.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Petey Tucker for 25 yds Georgia State Penalty, Offensive Holding (DJ Riles) to the ARST 30Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+6
54.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Ted Hurst for 6 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-10
54.9%
GIBSON, Zach scrambles to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the AST18 (THOMAS, Trevian), out of bounds, clock 07:00. PENALTY GSU Holding on ROBINSON, Lamar enforced 10 yards from the AST24 to the AST34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 19
OPP 34
0
53.4%
Zach Gibson pass intercepted Justin Parks return for no gain to the ARST 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3350% → 48%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
50.1%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 5Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+10
50.4%
Zak Wallace run for 10 yds to the ARST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
49.8%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 16Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+6
50.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds to the ARST 22Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
50.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+14
51.6%
Ryan Heicher punt for 41 yds , Jyron Gilmore returns for 14 yds to the ARST 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5556% → 51%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
56.2%
Freddie Brock run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 49Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-5
54.6%
Zach Gibson sacked by Bryan Whitehead for a loss of 5 yards to the GAST 44Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 17
OWN 44
+4
52.6%
Michel Dukes run for 4 yds to the GAST 48Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
50.9%
James Allen punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3350% → 49%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
49.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
49.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 26Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
50.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 3 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
51.3%
Ryan Heicher punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jyron Gilmore at the GAST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3953% → 50%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
52.5%
Michel Dukes run for 5 yds to the GAST 38Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-4
54.6%
Zach Gibson sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the GAST 34 Zach Gibson fumbled, recovered by GAST Ben Chukwuma , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
51.2%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
50.0%
James Allen punt for 44 yds, downed at the ARST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
49.3%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:2454% → 56%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+28
54.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 28 yds to the GAST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
57.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 5 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
57.8%
Freddie Brock run for 3 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
57.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 1 yd to the ARST 45Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-1
55.6%
Michel Dukes run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:4152% → 68%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
48.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 42Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+40
50.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 40 yds to the GAST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
46.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 10 yds to the GAST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
46.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the GAST 6Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
46.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the GAST 1Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.2%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd for a TD Georgia State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the GAST 0 (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 44 yds · 4:1136% → 37%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
36.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 17 yds to the GAST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
36.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to DJ Riles for 2 yds to the GAST 31Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
36.8%
Freddie Brock run for 5 yds to the GAST 36Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
37.1%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 3
OWN 36
-5
35.3%
ALLEN, James punt 52 yards to the AST12, fair catch by JACKSON, Courtney, clock 07:07. PENALTY Before the snap, GSU Illegal Formation on MURRAY JR., DJ enforced 5 yards from the GSU36 to the GSU31. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+10
34.1%
(07:07) ALLEN, James rush to the right for a loss of 8 yards to the GSU23 (BURGESS, Ezra), clock 06:59. PENALTY AST Holding enforced 10 yards from the GSU32 to the GSU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
38.5%
Freddie Brock run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 40Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+12
36.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Petey Tucker for 12 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
40.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to DJ Riles for 4 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
40.1%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
39.6%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
36.5%
James Allen punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3068% → 67%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
32.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 21Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
32.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-3
32.4%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by KD McDaniel and Josiah Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 20Similar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
33.2%
Ryan Heicher punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jyron Gilmore at the GAST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1035% → 61%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
35.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
34.4%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
32.8%
VEILLEUX, Christian sacked for a loss of 8 yards at the GSU22 (WHITEHEAD, Bryan), clock 03:02. PENALTY AST Holding on JOYNER, Dontay enforced 10 yards from the GSU30 to the GSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+48
37.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 48 yds to the ARST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
61.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 12 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:2449% → 58%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
51.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
50
0
46.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 10
50
+19
47.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 19 yds to the GAST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
45.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the GAST 26Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
45.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
46.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:31
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+44
41.9%
Clune Van Andel 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4445% → 40%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
45.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 3 yds to the GAST 27Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
45.7%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
43.6%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:35
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+57
40.0%
James Allen punt for 53 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 57 yds to the GAST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:2466% → 80%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
34.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the GAST 15Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+15
19.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 15 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:3222% → 30%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
21.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Petey Tucker for 17 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
23.3%
Freddie Brock run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 40Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+15
21.8%
Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Justin Hodges) to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
24.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 11 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
24.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
24.3%
Freddie Brock run for 4 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
22.8%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
29.8%
Braeden McAlister 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:1276% → 84%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.8%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
22.4%
RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for RUCKER, Corey thrown to the GSU30, clock 10:42. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on WATSON, Kenyatta enforced 15 yards to the AST43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+29
18.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 29 yds to the GAST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-9
17.4%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Josiah Robinson for a loss of 9 yards to the GAST 37Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 19
OPP 37
-5
17.4%
Arkansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GAST 42Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 24
OPP 42
+6
17.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 6 yds to the GAST 36Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 18
OPP 36
+2
18.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 2 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q4 7:59
4TH & 16
OPP 34
+52
15.7%
Clune Van Andel 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 1:5714% → 22%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
14.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+19
13.6%
Christian Veilleux run for 19 yds to the GAST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
15.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
14.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
13.9%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+15
12.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Petey Tucker for 15 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
15.3%
VEILLEUX, Christian pass deep to the right incomplete intended for TUCKER, Petey broken up by JOYNER, Dontay at the AST20, clock 06:29. PENALTY Before the snap, AST Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the AST45 to the AST40. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+17
14.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Austin McGee for 17 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
16.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
15.6%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
14.1%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
22.4%
Liam Rickman 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:3484% → 90%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.0%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
13.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
13.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
10.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
10.0%
Zak Wallace run for 7 yds to the GAST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
7.9%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the GAST 47Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+1
8.0%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the GAST 46Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
8.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 8
OPP 46
+37
9.9%
Ryan Heicher punt for 37 yds , Jyron Gilmore returns for no gain to the GAST 7 , returns for no gain to the GAST 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24INT
5 plays · 53 yds · 0:3715% → 16%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+17
14.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 17 yds to the GAST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
12.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Petey Tucker for 15 yds to the GAST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
13.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 21 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
16.1%
Christian Veilleux pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:0095% → 95%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
5.0%
(01:18) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at AST24 (team loss of 2), clock 01:15.Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 12
OWN 24
-1
5.1%
(00:40) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at AST23 (team loss of 1), clock 00:37.Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 13
OWN 23
-1
5.3%
(00:18) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at AST22 (team loss of 1), clock 00:11.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:03
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 12 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
+24.4
TD · Q4 14:03
Ja'Quez Cross run for 15 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q3 9:32
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd for a TD Georgia State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the GAST 0 (Clune Van Andel KICK)
-13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com