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ULM

UL Monroe 21 at Arkansas State 28

ARST
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:05 · Ryan Heicher punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Pregame prior+7.5Home team on offense+6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Garbage-time factor+1.8Score differential+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:59: Ahmad Hardy run for 72 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK) — ULM win probability +12.6 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:40: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 12 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +17.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:15: Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Larson KICK) — ULM win probability +35.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:09: Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 42 — ARST win probability +17.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:58: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 44 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +31.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:22ARST 4th & 1 at ULM 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.1%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:03ULM 4th & 3 at ARST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:16ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:16ARST 4th & 1 at ULM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−1.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:52ULM 4th & 5 at ARST 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:06ARST 4th & 22 at ULM 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−1.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:05ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−2.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:33ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:12ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:30ARST 4th & 1 at ULM 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−4.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−16.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:55ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:39ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:31ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%−4.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:27ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:50ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:52ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:59ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:40ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:15ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:58ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3334% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 6 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
66.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 33Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+32
65.9%
Aidan Armenta run for 32 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
65.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 9 yds to the ARST 26Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+26
64.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 26 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:3265% → 66%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
64.9%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+15
64.9%
UL Monroe Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
65.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the ULM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
65.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
65.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 10 yds to the ULM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
65.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 7 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+4
65.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ULM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
65.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 3 yds to the ULM 18Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+1
65.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ULM 17Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+5
65.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 5 yds to the ULM 12Similar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+1
65.1%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ULM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
65.3%
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the ULM 3Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+1
65.3%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ULM 2Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
65.9%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 5:4735% → 37%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
64.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
64.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
64.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Artis Cole for 17 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
64.1%
UL Monroe Penalty, Illegal Snap on MILLER, Carter enforced (-5 Yards) to the ARST 49Similar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+16
64.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 16 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
63.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ARST 32Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+2
63.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+4
64.2%
Aidan Armenta run for 4 yds to the ARST 26Similar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 3
OPP 26
0
63.2%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0365% → 64%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
64.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
64.4%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-5
64.2%
Arkansas State Penalty, False Start (Corey Rucker) to the ARST 26Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
63.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+5
63.4%
UL Monroe Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the ARST 31Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
63.5%
Ryan Heicher punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the ULM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:4437% → 35%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
63.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 12Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+2
64.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 14Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+8
64.5%
Aidan Armenta run for 8 yds to the ULM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
63.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 20Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+3
63.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the ULM 23Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
64.3%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
64.7%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:2466% → 74%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
65.8%
Devin Spencer run for 6 yds to the ULM 47Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+6
66.1%
Devin Spencer run for 6 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
66.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
66.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for no gain to the ULM 41Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+9
65.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
65.0%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ULM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
66.6%
RAYNOR, Jaylen pass to the right incomplete intended for EALY, Reagan thrown to the ULM20; QB hurried by PULLEN, Billy. PENALTY ASU Holding on SMITH, Noah enforced 10 yards from the ULM30 to the ULM40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 20
OPP 40
0
65.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+8
65.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+32
73.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 32 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7FUMBLE
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:3627% → 30%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Ahmad Hardy for 2 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
73.3%
Ahmad Hardy run for 11 yds to the ULM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
72.6%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
72.8%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-5
73.5%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Carter Miller) to the ULM 33Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+25
74.3%
Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dontay Joyner) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
71.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Davon Wells for 6 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+13
70.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 13 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
70.1%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
70.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 5 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
70.6%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+10
72.2%
Aidan Armenta run for 10 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
70.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for 14 yds to the ARST 4 Ahmad Hardy fumbled, recovered by ARST Trevian Thomas T. Thomas return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:1078% → 77%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
78.1%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 8Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+57
77.8%
Zak Wallace run for 57 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
79.3%
Arkansas State Penalty, Personal Foul (Elijah Zollicoffer) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 25
50
+1
77.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 1 yd to the ULM 49Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 24
OPP 49
+2
77.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ULM 47Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 22
OPP 47
0
77.1%
Ryan Heicher punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the ULM 12Similar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
76.8%
ARMENTA, Aidan pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for COLE, Artis thrown to the ASU48. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on MAHONEY, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the ULM27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9END OF HALF
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:0624% → 24%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
76.3%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+14
76.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 14 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
75.5%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
77.2%
Aidan Armenta run for 6 yds to the ULM 47Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-2
75.6%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Bryan Whitehead for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4974% → 72%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
73.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 11 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
73.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-6
73.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 6 yards to the ARST 24Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+8
72.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 8 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
72.2%
Ryan Heicher punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 1:0028% → 41%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
71.8%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Charles Willekes for a loss of 7 yards to the ULM 28Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+72
59.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 72 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2161% → 60%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
61.1%
Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+8
61.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
61.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 11 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
63.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for no gain to the ARST 43Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
62.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ARST 43Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
61.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+24
59.7%
Ryan Heicher punt for 47 yds , Davon Wells returns for 24 yds to the ULM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0543% → 43%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
56.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+3
56.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 3 yds to the ULM 39Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+2
55.3%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Ahmad Hardy for 2 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
57.1%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 28 yds, downed at the ARST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 6:2461% → 83%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
61.1%
Zak Wallace run for 13 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
63.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 4
50
+9
64.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 9 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
65.0%
Zak Wallace run for 7 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+3
65.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ULM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
65.6%
Devin Spencer run for 7 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
65.6%
Devin Spencer run for 5 yds to the ULM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
65.5%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ULM 15Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
65.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+5
63.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 5 yds to the ULM 10Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
61.9%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ULM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
65.5%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ULM 8Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
65.5%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Billy Pullen for a loss of 4 yards to the ULM 12Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
83.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 12 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:2325% → 56%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
75.5%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 8 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
73.3%
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the ULM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
73.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 37Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+10
78.6%
Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tim Hardiman) to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
74.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+11
77.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 11 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
77.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+6
75.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 6 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
75.8%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Que McBroom) to the ARST 28Similar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 15
OPP 28
-10
77.8%
(10:11) QB Keeper ARMENTA, Aidan rush up the middle for a gain of 28 yards to the ASU0, TOUCHDOWN ULM, score nullified by penalty, clock 10:04 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY ULM Holding on MILLER, Carter enforced 10 yards from the ASU28 to the ASU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 25
OPP 38
+37
79.5%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Tyler Griffin for 37 yds to the ARST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:1161% → 90%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
61.2%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-1
62.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 41Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+15
58.6%
(08:11) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, Courtney thrown to the ASU48, clock 08:04. PENALTY ULM Roughing the Passer on WELLS, Kevontay enforced 15 yards from the ASU41 to the ULM44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
89.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 44 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5417% → 12%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
83.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 22Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
85.9%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
87.6%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
88.4%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 36 yds, downed at the ARST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0694% → 94%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
94.0%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Carl Glass Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the ARST 32Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 20
OWN 32
+6
93.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 6 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+1
94.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the ARST 39Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
93.7%
Ryan Heicher punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the ULM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:3411% → 10%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
89.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the ULM 21Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+3
89.3%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+1
90.1%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 25Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+1
91.0%
Aidan Armenta run for 1 yd to the ULM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
90.3%
Aidan Armenta pass intercepted Trevian Thomas return for no gain to the ARST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20END OF GAME
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:1998% → 99%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
97.9%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
98.4%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the ARST 36Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+14
98.4%
Zak Wallace run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
50
-1
98.5%
(00:32) [SG] Kneel down by RAYNOR, Jaylen at ASU49 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:15
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Larson KICK)
-35.3
TD · Q4 7:58
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 44 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
+31.2
TD · Q3 0:40
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 12 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
+17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com