Arkansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2018

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1772nd
  Defense+0.0565th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.8%73rd
  Defense38.8%84th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1835th
  Defense+1.387th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1471st
  Defense+0.0556th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2261st
  Defense+0.0870th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense51.0%73rd
  Defense43.5%81st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.2%55th
  Defense31.1%67th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3590th
  Defense2.4592nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.7%96th
  Defense25.7%94th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.9%75th
  Defense19.8%89th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2018

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arkansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SEMO
2. L
   ALA
3. W
   TLSA
4. W
   UNLV
5. L
   GASO
6. L
   APP
7. W
   GAST
8. L
   UL
9. W
   USA
10. W
    CCU
11. W
    ULM
12. W
    TXST
13. L
    NEV

Bars above the line: better than expected for Arkansas State.

Players, 2018

1. Justice HansenQB423 plays · +0.201 pts/play · 44th of 225 QBs
   1.59WAR0.95 to 2.30
2. Marcel MurrayRB131 plays · +0.176 pts/play · 73rd of 351 RBs
   0.43WAR0.34 to 0.53
3. Warren WandRB114 plays · +0.172 pts/play · 105th of 351 RBs
   0.37WAR0.28 to 0.45
4. Justin McInnisWR68 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 53rd of 434 WRs
   0.18WAR0.08 to 0.26
5. Kirk MerrittWR78 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 62nd of 434 WRs
   0.17WAR0.07 to 0.27
6. Cody GraceP44 plays · +0.178 pts/play · 6th of 91 punters
   0.15WAR0.09 to 0.20
7. Omar BaylessWR45 plays · +0.111 pts/play · 201st of 434 WRs
   0.09WAR0.03 to 0.16
8. Kendrick EdwardsWR16 plays · +0.100 pts/play · 367th of 434 WRs
   0.03WAR0.01 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Arkansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2018

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  43443486th of 130Roster talent: 434, 86th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  13213291st of 130Recruiting: 132, 91st of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  71%71%51st of 129Returning production: 71%, 51st of 129 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +1.2+1.272nd of 130SP+ rating: +1.2, 72nd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arkansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs APPQ2 4:37 4th & 1 at APP 16, down 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
2. at TLSAQ2 1:31 4th & 1 at ARST 30, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
3. vs ULMQ4 11:54 4th & 3 at ULM 46, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. at ULQ2 15:00 4th & 1 at ARST 31, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
5. vs UNLVQ3 13:29 4th & 3 at UNLV 49, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
6. at TXSTQ2 12:47 4th & 1 at ARST 32, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. at TXSTQ2 9:06 4th & 3 at ARST 48, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs UNLVQ4 1:52 4th & 2 at UNLV 23, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2018

69th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Arkansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SEMO
2. L

   ALA
3. W

   TLSA
4. W

   UNLV
5. L

   GASO
6. L

   APP
7. W

   GAST
8. L

   UL
9. W

   USA
10. W

    CCU
11. W

    ULM
12. W

    TXST
13. L

    NEV

What moved it, 2018

Every game starts at Arkansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.85
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.12
• Timeouts+0.24
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.81

Game by game

• SEMOW 48-21 vs SEMO98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• ALAL 7-57 at ALA2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −3
• TLSAW 29-20 at TLSA47% → 93%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +48, Possession & field position +1
• UNLVW 27-20 vs UNLV73% → 98%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +29, Possession & field position +1
• GASOL 21-28 at GASO61% → 11%Before kickoff +11 · On the field −50: Scoreboard −31, Clock −1
• APPL 9-35 vs APP30% → 0%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −36
• GASTW 51-35 vs GAST84% → 97%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts +1
• ULL 43-47 at UL60% → 5%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −2
• USAW 38-14 vs USA85% → 99%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +19
• CCUW 44-16 at CCU73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +32, Clock +1
• ULMW 31-17 vs ULM73% → 99%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +29, Timeouts +1
• TXSTW 33-7 at TXST85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +21
• NEVL 13-16 at NEV54% → 38%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −16: Timeouts +25, Clock −15

Points of win probability, from Arkansas State's side.

Closest call

ARST 30-29 APP (2025) - Arkansas State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.