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APP

App State 35 at Arkansas State 9

ARST
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 9, 2018 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.7ARST 33.4%Blake Grupe 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 9:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:39 · Blake Grupe 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Home team on offense+0.5Pregame prior−18.4Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:13: Jalin Moore run for 27 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +8.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:37: Blake Grupe 33 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +4.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:57: Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 25 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +10.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:45: Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +7.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:52: Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 3 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +10.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 10 of 13APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:33ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:26APP 4th & 7 at ARST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    73.5%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:39ARST 4th & 3 at APP 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.6%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:39APP 4th & 7 at APP 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:27ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:36APP 4th & 9 at APP 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:51ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 35, up 3
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:53APP 4th & 10 at APP 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:54ARST 4th & 7 at APP 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:51ARST 4th & 2 at APP 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:55APP 4th & 10 at APP 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:37ARST 4th & 1 at APP 16, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%−2.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−7.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:36ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 35, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:27APP 4th & 4 at APP 9, up 12
    Close callPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:35ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 35, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:59ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 31, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:52APP 4th & 14 at APP 29, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:54APP 4th & 25 at APP 47, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:25ARST 4th & 2 at midfield, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%−0.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:39ARST 4th & 3 at APP 35, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−1.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:35ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 25, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:06APP 4th & 1 at APP 34, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 11:13APP Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:57APP Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:45APP Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:52APP Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:09APP Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2130% → 30%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.2%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
30.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
30.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q1 14:33
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
30.3%
Cody Grace punt for 10 yds, downed at the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0270% → 69%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
30.4%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+4
30.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalin Moore for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
30.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 7
OPP 32
0
30.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalin MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:4131% → 33%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
31.0%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+10
31.2%
Marcel Murray run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
31.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 9
50
0
31.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 9
50
+15
31.5%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
32.1%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+13
32.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 13 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
32.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 2 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+6
32.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 6 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 2
OPP 13
-1
32.7%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 14Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
33.4%
Blake Grupe 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:5167% → 65%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
33.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+5
33.6%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
33.9%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
34.1%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
34.5%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalin MooreSimilar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
34.7%
Clayton Howell punt for 44 yds , Warren Wand returns for no gain to the ArkSt 30 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0734% → 34%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
34.0%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
34.0%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
34.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
34.0%
Cody Grace punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4465% → 64%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
34.7%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
35.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
35.6%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
35.9%
Clayton Howell punt for 40 yds , Warren Wand returns for no gain to the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3935% → 36%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
35.2%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
35.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Reed Tyler for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+1
35.6%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+46
35.5%
Cody Grace punt for 46 yds , Clifton Duck returns for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5264% → 62%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
36.4%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 15Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+17
37.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 17 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
36.5%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
36.5%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
37.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 1:53
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
37.9%
Clayton Howell punt for 43 yds, downed at the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:5937% → 43%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
36.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
36.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 12 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
37.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 10 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
38.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 14 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
39.0%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+7
39.3%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
39.2%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
40.1%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the AppSt 33Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
40.3%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+2
39.9%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
43.3%
Blake Grupe 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4159% → 67%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
41.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 20Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
41.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 12 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
40.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+39
41.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 39 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
33.3%
Jalin Moore run for 27 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:1437% → 39%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.9%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
37.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Reed Tyler for 18 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
39.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+20
38.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 20 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
40.8%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
40.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 7 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+1
39.9%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 2
OPP 27
0
39.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5064% → 62%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
36.1%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
36.0%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+1
36.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 1 yd to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
37.8%
Clayton Howell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Warren Wand at the ArkSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:1339% → 46%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
38.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
40.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 24 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
41.8%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 1 yd to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
42.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 7 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
40.9%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the AppSt 16Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+33
45.8%
Blake Grupe 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:2557% → 71%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
43.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 8 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+41
41.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 41 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
39.5%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
29.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 25 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15INT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4931% → 31%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
31.3%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+3
32.0%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+19
30.9%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Tae Hayes return for 19 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0572% → 80%
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
27.9%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
27.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (2 Yards) to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
27.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:1923% → 24%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
23.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 6 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+13
23.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 13 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
23.8%
Justice Hansen run for 16 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
24.3%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Josh Thomas return for 3 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
21.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19MISSED FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:5977% → 81%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
23.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
23.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
22.0%
Zac Thomas run for 6 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
20.8%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+11
20.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 11 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
20.4%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
19.9%
Zac Thomas run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
19.6%
Jalen Virgil run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
19.0%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
19.3%
Zac Thomas run for no gain to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+36
19.2%
Michael Rubino 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0923% → 22%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
22.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
23.2%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
23.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
22.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+2
22.2%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
22.1%
Cody Grace punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0380% → 79%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
20.4%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+6
20.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 6 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 4
OWN 9
0
20.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 4
OWN 9
0
20.8%
Clayton Howell punt for 62 yds, downed at the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4722% → 19%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
22.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
21.4%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
20.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
19.3%
Cody Grace punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 2:3882% → 96%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
18.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+57
17.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 57 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
14.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
14.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
14.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 3 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:469% → 8%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.1%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
8.7%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
8.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
8.4%
Cody Grace punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0196% → 96%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
4.0%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 16Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+8
4.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 8 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+9
3.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for 9 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
3.6%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
3.6%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-4
3.8%
Zac Thomas sacked by William Bradley-King for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 29Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 14
OWN 29
-5
3.9%
Clayton Howell punt for 39 yds , Warren Wand returns for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
7.4%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Austin Exford return for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:4497% → 97%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
3.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-15
3.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Dominique Heath APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 25
OWN 47
0
3.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 25
OWN 47
0
3.5%
Clayton Howell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Warren Wand at the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28DOWNS
14 plays · 52 yds · 6:096% → 5%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
6.2%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+2
5.5%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+8
5.3%
Justice Hansen run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
5.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
4.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+8
5.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-9
5.0%
Justice Hansen sacked by Jordan Fehr for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 19
OWN 33
+15
4.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 15 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+2
4.9%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 2
50
+8
4.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Reed Tyler for 8 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
4.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 7 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+1
5.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 1 yd to the AppSt 34Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-1
5.1%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
4.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for no gain to the AppSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 29TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 1:2698% → 100%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
1.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+62
0.2%
Zac Thomas run for 62 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
0.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 1 yd to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+9
0.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 9 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Cody Grace punt for 50 yds, downed at the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:24100% → 100%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
0.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
0.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the AppSt 34Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+12
0.1%
Clayton Howell punt for 45 yds , Warren Wand returns for 12 yds to the ArkSt 46 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the ArkSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 32Uncategorized
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
0.1%
Alex Roberts run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+10
0.1%
Alex Roberts run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
0.1%
Alex Roberts run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
0.1%
Alex Roberts run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:52
Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 3 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-10.8
TD · Q2 2:57
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 25 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 11:13
Jalin Moore run for 27 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com