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ULM

UL Monroe 17 at Arkansas State 31

ARST
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:26 · Blake Grupe 47 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Pregame prior+1.3Home team on offense+30.0Garbage-time factor+14.1Score differential+12.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:25: Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 34 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +9.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:31: Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +7.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:58: Caleb Evans pass intercepted for a TD Justin Clifton return for 43 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +10.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:31: Caleb Evans run for 1 yd for a TD (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +6.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:40: Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 10 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +10.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 12 at ULM 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    71.5%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:35ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:41ULM 4th & 13 at ULM 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 12 at ULM 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:34ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:58ARST 4th & 9 at ULM 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:31ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:23ULM 4th & 5 at ARST 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 29, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:59ARST 4th & 22 at ARST 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:54ARST 4th & 3 at ULM 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−2.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:58ULM 4th & 25 at ULM 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−1.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:26ARST 4th & 12 at ULM 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:43ARST 4th & 22 at ARST 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:41ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:25ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:31ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:58ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:31ULM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:40ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
72.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
72.9%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
72.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 9 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
72.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 28 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
72.9%
Wand, Warren rush for 2 yards to the ULM31 (Day, Chase;Veasley, Jaylen), PENALTY ASU HL (Bonner, Lanard) 10 yards to the ULM43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 43
-2
72.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 22
OPP 45
+2
72.9%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 43
+8
72.9%
Marcel Murray run for 8 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 35
0
72.9%
Cody Grace punt for 34 yds, downed at the LaMon 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
72.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 4 yds to the LaMon 5Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+21
72.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 21 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
72.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 11 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
71.8%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-3
71.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 33 to Brandius Batiste for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
72.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
72.2%
Jared Porter punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Warren Wand at the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 2:3871% → 75%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
71.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+4
71.2%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+20
70.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 20 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
71.8%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+49
74.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 49 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
74.0%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+23
74.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zachari Jackson for 23 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-3
73.6%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 13
OWN 35
-2
74.4%
Jared Porter punt for 50 yds , Warren Wand returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 4
OWN 15
0
74.0%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the LaMon 15Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
74.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 1:5974% → 74%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
74.1%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
74.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Corey StraughterSimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+13
73.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 13 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
74.2%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
74.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Austin HawleySimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+25
73.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 25 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
75.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 7 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
-11
75.3%
Justin McInnis sacked by Ty Shelby for a loss of 11 yards to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+2
74.2%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
73.7%
Cody Grace punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brandius Batiste at the LaMon 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
74.2%
Marcus Green run for 2 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 11
-6
74.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 5Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 14
OWN 5
-1
74.8%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 4Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 15
OWN 4
+17
75.1%
Jared Porter punt for 44 yds , Warren Wand returns for 17 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FG
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:3776% → 76%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
76.0%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+11
75.8%
Marcel Murray run for 11 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
75.5%
Kirk Merritt run for 2 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
76.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 16 yds to the LaMon 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
76.0%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 8Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.3%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
75.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 9Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
76.2%
Blake Grupe 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 2:2724% → 31%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
76.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 5 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+19
76.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 19 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
75.4%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Hodoh, Jonathan, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Clifton, Justin) 6 yards to the ULM49, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
74.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zachari JacksonSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
75.2%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+11
74.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 11 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
65.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 34 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+23
69.0%
Jared Porter punt for 65 yds , Marcel Murray returns for 23 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:4770% → 80%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
70.4%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
71.3%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
70.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 6 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
72.3%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
71.7%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
72.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 6
50
+2
72.6%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+4
72.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Reed Tyler for 4 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
72.8%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
72.9%
Marcel Murray run for 14 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Jabari Johnson) to the LaMon 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
72.9%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 7Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
80.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
78.1%
Caleb Evans sacked by Ronheen Bingham for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11INT TD
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:5621% → 11%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
78.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 6 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
78.1%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
78.3%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
78.1%
Evans, Caleb pass complete to McCray, Markis for no gain to the ULM34 (Edmonds, B.J.;Thurmon, Kevin), PENALTY ULM illegal block (McCray, Markis) 10 yards to the ULM24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+6
78.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 6 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+43
89.3%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted for a TD Justin Clifton return for 43 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:1712% → 19%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+27
88.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 27 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
87.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 20 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
87.2%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
87.2%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.2%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.9%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
82.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
82.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete, broken up by Kerry StarksSimilar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
81.6%
Cody Grace punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:2317% → 21%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
83.0%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+2
82.2%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
82.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 15 yds Marcus Green fumbled, forced by Demari Medley, recovered by LaMon for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
81.5%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
81.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+19
83.7%
Caleb Evans run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
81.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
82.0%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
82.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Derrick GoreSimilar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
78.9%
Craig Ford 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 4:3482% → 95%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
81.8%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+39
81.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 39 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
83.8%
Kirk Merritt run for 23 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
85.0%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-1
85.0%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 32Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+19
83.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 19 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
85.0%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
85.0%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the LaMon 10Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
95.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 10 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:368% → 8%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
91.9%
Derrick Gore run for 4 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
91.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 29
+17
92.7%
Jared Porter punt for 51 yds , Warren Wand returns for 17 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-1
92.3%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
95.5%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-10
95.3%
Hansen, Justice pass complete to Adams Jr., Jona for 12 yards to the ASU49, PENALTY ASU HL (Brown, Marvis) 10 yards to the ASU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 20
OWN 27
-2
95.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 22
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Cody Grace punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
93.9%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted Demari Medley return for no gain to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
96.2%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
96.2%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-1
96.2%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
95.7%
Cody Grace punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
95.0%
Caleb Evans run for 9 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
94.6%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
94.6%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-5
94.6%
Caleb Evans sacked by Ronheen Bingham for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 28Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 13
OWN 28
-12
95.1%
Caleb Evans sacked by Dajon Emory for a loss of 12 yards to the LaMon 16Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 25
OWN 16
0
95.2%
Jared Porter punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 3:1897% → 99%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+35
97.2%
Marcel Murray run for 35 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
97.5%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
97.4%
Justice Hansen run for no gain to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-1
97.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+47
98.8%
Blake Grupe 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22INT
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
97.4%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+15
97.3%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to McCray, Markis, PENALTY ASU personal foul (Thurmon, Kevin) 15 yards to the ASU48, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
97.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 22 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
96.6%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted Justin Clifton return for no gain to the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:4499% → 99%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
98.9%
Marcel Murray run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.0%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
99.2%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-15
99.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jacob Atnip) to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 23
OWN 22
+6
99.2%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 17
OWN 28
-5
99.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 22
OWN 23
0
99.2%
Cody Grace punt for 38 yds, downed at the LaMon 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:58
Caleb Evans pass intercepted for a TD Justin Clifton return for 43 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q3 0:40
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 10 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q2 5:25
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 34 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com