Try the model
USA

South Alabama 14 at Arkansas State 38

ARST
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:42 · Cody Grace punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Pregame prior+34.2Home team on offense+0.1Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:01: Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 5 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +2.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:45: Evan Orth pass complete to Malik Stanley for 17 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +6.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:21: Warren Wand run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +6.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:18: Justice Hansen pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 11 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +5.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:51: Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 78 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +5.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00USA 4th & 7 at USA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:42ARST 4th & 8 at USA 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:58USA 4th & 17 at USA 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:30ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:35USA 4th & 1 at USA 23, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:50ARST 4th & 1 at USA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−0.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 5:47USA 4th & 15 at ARST 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:00USA 4th & 1 at ARST 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−1.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:34ARST 4th & 10 at USA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:05USA 4th & 1 at USA 41, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:18USA 4th & 10 at USA 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:22ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:39USA 4th & 14 at USA 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:10ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:00USA 4th & 1 at ARST 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−1.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−6.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:47USA 4th & 10 at USA 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:45ARST 4th & 5 at USA 9, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:10ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 27, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:01ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:45USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:21ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:18ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:51ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:05ARST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:48USA Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
84.8%
Evan Orth pass complete to Tra Minter for 2 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
84.8%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+1
84.8%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 1 yd to the SAlab 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
84.8%
Corliss Waitman punt for 21 yds, downed at the SAlab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
84.5%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
84.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Marcel MurraySimilar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
84.4%
Cody Grace punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-4
84.2%
Kawaan Baker run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 7Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 14
OWN 7
-3
84.2%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 4Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 17
OWN 4
0
84.3%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 17
OWN 4
0
84.3%
Corliss Waitman punt for 53 yds , Warren Wand returns for no gain to the ArkSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for no gain to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
83.9%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+2
83.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
83.8%
Cody Grace punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SAlab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
83.2%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 14Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
83.2%
Kawaan Baker run for 6 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+3
83.3%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+1
83.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 43 yds , Warren Wand returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
82.7%
Justice Hansen run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
83.1%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
83.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
82.9%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+4
83.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
82.8%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
81.4%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
81.5%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+8
81.6%
Tra Minter run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+5
81.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
81.2%
Cephus Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 45 Cephus Johnson fumbled, recovered by SAlab Cephus JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+6
81.4%
Evan Orth run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 7
OPP 39
-8
81.3%
Evan Orth sacked by Logan Wescott and Jarrod Chandler for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
82.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2081% → 84%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
80.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 13 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
81.0%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
81.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+23
81.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 23 yds to the ARKST 39 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
81.7%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+14
81.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 14 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
81.3%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+10
81.3%
Kirk Merritt run for 10 yds to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 5 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1517% → 26%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
82.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 26 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
81.9%
Evan Orth run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
81.8%
Tywun Walters run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
81.9%
Tywun Walters run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
82.4%
Evan Orth run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
81.9%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
81.9%
Cephus Johnson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+7
82.0%
Evan Orth pass complete to Tra Minter for 7 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
81.4%
Tywun Walters run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+8
81.4%
Evan Orth pass complete to Maurice Mayo for 8 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
81.4%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+17
74.4%
Evan Orth pass complete to Malik Stanley for 17 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:1178% → 77%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
78.1%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+9
79.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 9 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
79.2%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+13
79.5%
Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
79.8%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Chris Henderson) to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
79.8%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
79.8%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the SAlab 19Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
79.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
77.1%
Blake Grupe 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2925% → 27%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
74.6%
Evan Orth pass complete to Tra Minter for 2 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
74.7%
Evan Orth run for 7 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
74.5%
Tywun Walters run for 3 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
74.2%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+7
74.2%
Maurice Mayo run for 7 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
72.2%
Evan Orth run for no gain to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
73.5%
Corliss Waitman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Warren Wand at the ArkSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 2:5776% → 85%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
76.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 6 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
76.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+6
75.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 6 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
76.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 9 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+4
78.0%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
77.8%
Warren Wand run for 12 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
78.5%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-5
78.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 48Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+7
77.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 7 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+39
78.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 39 yds to the SAlab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.1%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Tyree Turner) to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.1%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
82.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:3783% → 90%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
82.6%
Marcel Murray run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+5
83.8%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
83.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
83.3%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+14
82.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 14 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
84.0%
Darveon Brown pass complete to Justice Hansen for 22 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
84.1%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the SAlab 11Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
84.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
90.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 11 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.3%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 25Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
89.5%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jamarius Way, broken up by Jerry JacobsSimilar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Corliss Waitman punt for 41 yds, downed at the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
90.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-3
90.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 13
OWN 31
+8
89.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
89.5%
Cody Grace punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
89.6%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-7
89.2%
Evan Orth sacked by Ronheen Bingham for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 20Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 14
OWN 20
0
90.0%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Tra MinterSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 14
OWN 20
+19
90.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 55 yds , Warren Wand returns for 19 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0092% → 90%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
91.5%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
91.3%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
90.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
90.3%
Cody Grace punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SAlab 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 62 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
89.9%
Evan Orth run for 17 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+36
89.3%
Tra Minter run for 36 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
87.5%
Tra Minter run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 2
OPP 20
0
87.5%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jamarius Way, broken up by Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
88.2%
Cephus Johnson run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
88.6%
Tywun Walters run for no gain to the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 1:1692% → 97%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
91.8%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-1
91.8%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+78
96.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 78 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.4%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
97.4%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Jordan McCray for 9 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
97.3%
Cephus Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 35Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+1
97.4%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 36Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
97.5%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
97.5%
Corliss Waitman punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 1:4498% → 99%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
98.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 20 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
98.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 7 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+8
98.5%
Justice Hansen run for 8 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
98.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 24 yds to the SAlab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
98.5%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
98.6%
Warren Wand pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Gus NaveSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
98.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
98.6%
Blake Grupe 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:082% → 2%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-11
98.5%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, intentional grounding (Cephus Johnson) to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 21
OWN 21
0
98.6%
Cephus Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 21
OWN 21
+16
98.5%
Cephus Johnson run for 16 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
98.3%
Corliss Waitman punt for 52 yds , Warren Wand returns for no gain to the ArkSt 25 Warren Wand fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Warren Wand , return for 14 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3299% → 100%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.2%
Alex Roberts run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
99.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 11 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+17
99.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 17 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.3%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+3
99.3%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
99.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Reed Tyler for 4 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
99.3%
Warren Wand run for 12 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
99.3%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Tyler, Reed, PENALTY USA pass interference (Lawrence, Nigel) 12 yards to the USA8, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.3%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.3%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:140% → 1%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
99.9%
Cephus Johnson run for 10 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Tra Minter run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 2
50
+11
99.9%
Tra Minter run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
Cephus Johnson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+9
99.9%
Cephus Johnson run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
99.9%
Kawaan Baker run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+5
99.9%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Maurice Mayo for 5 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
99.9%
Cephus Johnson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
Cephus Johnson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
99.2%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Jamarius Way for 5 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Alex Roberts run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Bubba Ogbebor, broken up by Travis ReedSimilar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Logan Bonner run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Cody Grace punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SAlab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
99.4%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 13 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
99.4%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tra Minter for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+3
99.4%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-10
99.4%
Cephus Johnson sacked by Ronheen Bingham and William Bradley-King for a loss of 10 yards to the SAlab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:45
Evan Orth pass complete to Malik Stanley for 17 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)
-6.9
TD · Q2 0:21
Warren Wand run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+6
TD · Q3 12:18
Justice Hansen pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 11 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com