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ARST

Arkansas State 44 at Coastal Carolina 16

CCU
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:03 · Cody Grace punt for 40 yds , Jai Williams returns for no gain to the CCaro 34 Jai Williams fumbled,
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense−53.4Score differential−38.8Pregame prior−2.8Garbage-time factor−20.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:30: Justice Hansen pass complete to Reed Tyler for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +3.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:34: Fred Payton pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 24 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (Jerry Jacobs) to the ArkSt 1 (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CCU win probability +4.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:39: Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe PAT MISSED) — ARST win probability +6.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:24: Warren Wand run for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +9.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:44: Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 20 yds for a TD COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the CCaro 3 (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +4.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:32CCU 4th & 11 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:33ARST 4th & 1 at CCU 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−1.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−5.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:30CCU 4th & 2 at CCU 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.6
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  4. Q3 14:51CCU 4th & 5 at ARST 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:38CCU 4th & 13 at ARST 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:41CCU 4th & 19 at CCU 27, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:38ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:22ARST 4th & 3 at CCU 21, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:19CCU 4th & 27 at CCU 39, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:03ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 27, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:13CCU 4th & 12 at ARST 18, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:37ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:30ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:34CCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:39ARST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:24ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:44ARST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:47ARST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:38CCU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:2373% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
26.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 9 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Fitz Wattley) to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
26.9%
Marcel Murray run for 31 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
26.9%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-5
26.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+6
26.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 6 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+23
26.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 23 yds to the CCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
26.9%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the CCaro 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
26.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 6Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
27.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
27.5%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
27.5%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 26Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+15
27.4%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 15 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
27.7%
Marable, CJ rush for 1 yard to the CCU42 (Emory, Dajon;Ahoia, Tukua), PENALTY ASU offside defense 5 yards to the CCU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+5
27.7%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for 5 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
27.8%
CJ Marable run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+1
27.8%
Alex James run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-10
27.8%
Payton, Fred rush for no gain to the ASU42 (Bingham, Ronheen;Chambers, Tajhea), PENALTY CCU holding (Carter, Trey) 10 yards to the CCU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+2
27.5%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 11
50
0
27.4%
Charles Ouverson punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 4:3372% → 76%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+19
28.0%
Marcel Murray run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
27.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+22
27.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 7 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
27.3%
Justice Hansen run for 5 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
27.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 6 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
27.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
27.2%
Warren Wand run for 12 yds to the CCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
27.2%
Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the CCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
27.1%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the CCaro 17Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+1
27.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 1 yd to the CCaro 16Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+10
27.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds to the CCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
23.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Reed Tyler for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 6:5225% → 30%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
24.7%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 19Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+6
24.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 6 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+1
24.7%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
24.8%
Jai Williams run for 1 yd to the CCaro 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+2
24.3%
Fred Payton run for 2 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+13
24.2%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for 13 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
25.1%
CJ Marable run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
25.4%
Fred Payton run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
25.3%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 36 Marcus Outlow fumbled, forced by Jerry Jacobs, recovered by CCaro CJ Marable for a 1ST down , return for 1 yd to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
25.3%
Fred Payton run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
25.6%
Alex James run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+24
30.2%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 24 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (Jerry Jacobs) to the ArkSt 1 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5TD
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:5474% → 80%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
26.1%
Marcel Murray run for 8 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+1
25.9%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the CCaro 32Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+4
26.3%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the CCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
25.9%
Merritt, Kirk rush for no gain to the CCU28 (Brown, Jave;Makins, Michael), PENALTY ASU illegal block 10 yards to the CCU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+4
26.3%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 16
OPP 34
+9
26.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 9 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+6
26.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 6 yds to the CCaro 19Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+3
27.0%
Logan Bonner run for 3 yds to the CCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
25.9%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the CCaro 14Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
19.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6INT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:2821% → 20%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
20.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to CJ Marable for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 19Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+8
20.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 8 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
19.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 5 yds to the CCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
20.1%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
20.4%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Marcus OutlowSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+5
19.9%
Kilton Anderson pass intercepted B.J. Edmonds return for 5 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 1:1882% → 91%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
18.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 25 yds to the CCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
18.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the CCaro 7Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
9.0%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:4913% → 14%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
12.8%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 9Similar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+9
12.5%
CJ Marable run for 9 yds to the CCaro 18Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+1
12.8%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 19Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+3
12.5%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 22Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
13.8%
Charles Ouverson punt for 36 yds, downed at the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:2190% → 92%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
10.5%
Warren Wand run for 19 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
9.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 24 yds to the CCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+32
8.3%
Blake Grupe 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
12.3%
Fred Payton run for 5 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
12.6%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Shadell BellSimilar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+20
12.5%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 20 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
13.6%
Fred Payton run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+1
13.7%
Alex James run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
13.4%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:51
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
13.2%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jeremiah Miller, broken up by William Bradley-KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:3492% → 97%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
7.9%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
7.9%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+3
8.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
7.9%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+13
7.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 13 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
7.8%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (16 yards) (Fitz Wattley) to the CCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
7.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 4 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
3.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 20 yds for a TD COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the CCaro 3 (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
4.8%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the CCaro 23Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
4.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 2 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+31
4.5%
Fred Payton pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 31 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
5.4%
T'Qele Holmes run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 13
OPP 47
0
5.0%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 13
OPP 47
0
4.9%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to T'Qele HolmesSimilar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
4.9%
Charles Ouverson punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:0998% → 99%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+34
2.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 34 yds to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+44
2.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 42 yds to the CCaro 4 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, roughing passer (Jeffrey Gunter) to the CCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.0%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
1.2%
Marcus Outlow run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 34Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
1.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-7
1.1%
Kilton Anderson sacked by William Bradley-King and Ronheen Bingham for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 27Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 19
OWN 27
0
1.1%
Charles Ouverson punt for 48 yds , Nathan Page returns for no gain to the ArkSt 26 Nathan Page fumbled, recovered by CCaro CJ MarableSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 1:301% → 2%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
1.3%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for 16 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
1.4%
Fred Payton sacked by Donovan Ransom for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
2.0%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 12 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.1%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Bubba Ogbebor for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
2.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 2 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
2.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
2.5%
Cody Grace punt for 41 yds , Marcus Outlow returns for no gain to the CCaro 30 Marcus Outlow fumbled, recovered by CCaro Marcus OutlowSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:071% → 2%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
1.4%
CJ Marable run for 7 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
1.4%
Fred Payton run for 5 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
1.5%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Isaiah LikelySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
1.4%
CJ Marable run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-11
1.6%
Fred Payton sacked by Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 11 yards to the CCaro 44 Fred Payton fumbled, recovered by ArkSt William Bradley-King , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:1299% → 100%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
0.6%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 7 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
0.5%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+7
0.5%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 7 yds to the CCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
0.6%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the CCaro 26Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
0.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+5
0.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 5 yds to the CCaro 21Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
0.4%
Blake Grupe 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 2:570% → 0%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.3%
Kilton Anderson run for 2 yds to the CCaro 22Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
0.3%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+14
0.3%
Anderson, Kilton sacked for loss of 6 yards to the CCU16 (Bingham, Ronheen), PENALTY ASU personal foul (Bradley-King, Willia) 14 yards to the CCU36, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
0.3%
Alex James run for 6 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+14
0.3%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 14 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
0.3%
Alex James run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-15
0.3%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete, broken up by Ronheen Bingham COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (T'Qele Holmes) to the CCaro 39Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 27
OWN 39
0
0.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to CJ MarableSimilar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 27
OWN 39
0
0.2%
Charles Ouverson punt for 37 yds, downed at the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
0.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Bubba OgbeborSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
0.2%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Bubba OgbeborSimilar
Q4 7:03
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Cody Grace punt for 40 yds , Jai Williams returns for no gain to the CCaro 34 Jai Williams fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 4:400% → 0%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
0.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the CCaro 44Similar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 5
OWN 44
-6
0.2%
Baden Pinson run for a loss of 6 yards to the CCaro 38Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
0.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete, broken up by Noel IwuchukwuSimilar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+22
0.1%
Jacqez Hairston run for 22 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
0.2%
Kilton Anderson run for no gain to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
0.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jacqez HairstonSimilar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-5
0.1%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Trey Carter) to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+5
0.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (William Bradley-King) to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+24
0.1%
Jacqez Hairston run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
0.2%
Jacqez Hairston run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
0.2%
Jacqez Hairston run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-7
0.1%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Isaiah Likely for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+35
0.1%
Massimo Biscardi 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
Donovan Marshall run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
0.1%
Donovan Marshall run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:24
Warren Wand run for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
-9.2
TD · Q2 5:39
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe PAT MISSED)
-6.3
TD · Q2 10:34
Fred Payton pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 24 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (Jerry Jacobs) to the ArkSt 1 (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com