Try the model
UNLV

UNLV 20 at Arkansas State 27

ARST
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:37 · Cody Grace punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brandon Presley at the UNLV 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+17.1Home team on offense−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score differential−0.4Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:08: Justice Hansen pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 2 yds for a TD — ARST win probability +10.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:11: Armani Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD — UNLV win probability +15.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:18: Armani Rogers run for no gain to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (16 Yards) to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST down — UNLV win probability +11.0 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 1:38: Lexington Thomas run for 10 yds for a TD — UNLV win probability +13.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:19: Marcel Murray run for 39 yds for a TD — ARST win probability +27.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UNLV made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 9:26ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:08ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 39, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:37ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 10, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:53UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:59ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:03UNLV 4th & 6 at ARST 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−1.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:29ARST 4th & 3 at UNLV 49, up 6
    Close callPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:33UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 43, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.3%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:26ARST 4th & 8 at UNLV 30, up 12
    Close callWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.1%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    85.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:11UNLV 4th & 1 at ARST 1, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−7.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:33ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−3.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:12UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:00ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:23ARST 4th & 2 at UNLV 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−1.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−2.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:52ARST 4th & 2 at UNLV 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−3.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:52UNLV 4th & 19 at UNLV 25, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:37ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:08UNLV Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:59ARST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:11UNLV Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:19ARST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    73.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:2373% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk Merritt, broken up by Evan AustrieSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+19
72.8%
Warren Wand run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
72.8%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+5
72.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 5 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
72.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 26 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
72.8%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
73.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 16 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
72.8%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
72.8%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+18
72.9%
Armani Rogers run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
72.6%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 13 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
72.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
72.5%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+13
72.6%
Armani Rogers pass intercepted Jerry Jacobs return for 13 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
73.2%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-6
73.2%
Justice Hansen sacked by Gabe McCoy for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+5
73.0%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY UNLV offside defense 5 yards to the ASU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+9
73.0%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
73.3%
Hansen, Justice rush for 4 yards to the ASU36 (WILY,S.;GUZMAN,Nathan), PENALTY ASU HL 10 yards to the ASU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 20
OWN 22
0
73.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 20
OWN 22
+7
73.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+2
73.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 2 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
72.9%
Cody Grace punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brandon Presley at the UNLV 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:4827% → 31%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
73.0%
Armani Rogers run for 14 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
72.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
72.7%
Evan Owens run for no gain to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+16
72.9%
Armani Rogers run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
72.2%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+41
68.7%
Evan Owens run for 41 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-6
69.3%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 19 Justice Hansen fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Justice HansenSimilar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-5
68.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Javonis Isaac) to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-5
68.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Kendrick Edwards) to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+24
68.7%
Marcel Murray run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
69.0%
Cody Grace punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Brandon Presley at the UNLV 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4332% → 31%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
67.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 38Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
67.8%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Evan Owens for 1 yd to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
67.6%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Lexington Thomas, broken up by Darreon JacksonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
68.6%
Hayes Hicken punt for 53 yds, downed at the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
68.3%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+3
68.2%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 8
OWN 10
0
67.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 8
OWN 10
0
67.4%
Cody Grace punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brandon Presley at the UNLV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8INT
4 plays · 37 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
66.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 37 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
65.4%
Xzaviar Campbell run for no gain to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
65.5%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+6
66.2%
Armani Rogers pass intercepted Jerry Jacobs return for 6 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 5:0668% → 77%
Q2 12:05
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+10
68.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
67.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+2
67.4%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+8
66.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
67.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 7 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
67.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Andre Harris Jr.) to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+15
67.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 15 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
69.1%
Justice Hansen run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 5
50
+4
69.5%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 4 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
69.3%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
69.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 20 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
76.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 24 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
73.1%
Armani Rogers run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+4
73.4%
Armani Rogers run for 4 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+1
74.1%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
74.5%
Hayes Hicken punt for 49 yds, downed at the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
75.4%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-6
75.5%
Justice Hansen sacked by Jameer Outsey for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+3
74.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 3 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
73.7%
Cody Grace punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12DOWNS
14 plays · 32 yds · 2:5627% → 26%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
73.2%
Armani Rogers run for 9 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+6
72.2%
Lexington Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
72.7%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 5 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+7
71.5%
Armani Rogers run for 7 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
71.9%
Armani Rogers sacked by Ronheen Bingham and Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+11
75.3%
Armani Rogers run for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 3
50
+5
73.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Drew Tejchman for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
72.6%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Drew TejchmanSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
73.0%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+4
74.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 6
OPP 41
-11
74.4%
Armani Rogers sacked by William Bradley-King and Ronheen Bingham for a loss of 11 yards to the UNLV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.1%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
73.3%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
74.3%
Armani Rogers run for 2 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
74.7%
Hayes Hicken punt for 56 yds, downed at the ArkSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
75.6%
Hansen, Justice pass complete to McInnis, Justin for 20 yards to the ASU38 (AUSTRIE,Evan), PENALTY ASU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ASU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+31
75.4%
Justice Hansen run for 31 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
77.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 8 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
77.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-5
76.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Lanard Bonner) to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+4
76.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Bubba Ogbebor for 4 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
75.6%
Cody Grace punt for 40 yds , Brandon Presley returns for no gain to the UNLV 2 Brandon Presley fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Brandon BynerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 2 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:2717% → 17%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
83.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+16
83.4%
Armani Rogers run for 16 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
82.9%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
83.0%
Armani Rogers run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+7
83.2%
Armani Rogers run for 7 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
82.8%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
86.1%
Marcel Murray run for 12 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
86.1%
Justice Hansen sacked by Javin White for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+4
86.0%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
85.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 8
OPP 30
0
84.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:2916% → 34%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+64
83.9%
Armani Rogers run for 64 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
81.0%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.0%
Armani Rogers run for no gain to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
82.0%
Armani Rogers run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.5%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0074% → 75%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
73.7%
Justice Hansen run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
74.7%
Justice Hansen run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35 Justice Hansen fumbled, forced by Javin White, recovered by UNLV Dalton BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:4036% → 51%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
63.7%
Armani Rogers run for no gain to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (16 Yards) to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
63.0%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+6
63.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q3 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
62.6%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Nathan Jacobson) to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
62.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Justin Clifton) to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
48.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 10 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
55.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
55.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+4
53.3%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
53.6%
Cody Grace punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:1546% → 44%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
53.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+6
52.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
53.6%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 20
-5
55.3%
UNLV Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 15Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+3
55.6%
Hayes Hicken punt for 41 yds , Warren Wand returns for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:5258% → 87%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
58.3%
Marcel Murray run for 10 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
59.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+39
86.7%
Marcel Murray run for 39 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
80.1%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-5
79.7%
UNLV Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 26Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 11
OWN 26
-1
81.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Tyleek Collins for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+7
82.3%
Armani Rogers run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
82.0%
Hayes Hicken punt for 66 yds , Warren Wand returns for no gain to the ArkSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+34
83.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 34 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
86.0%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-5
85.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Marvis Brown) to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+2
84.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+4
83.8%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
84.1%
Cody Grace punt for 33 yds, downed at the UNLV 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26INT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5919% → 12%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
81.2%
Armani Rogers run for 2 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+21
81.1%
Evan Owens run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
77.9%
WILLIAMS,C. rush for loss of 1 yard to the ASU49 (Merrill, Forres), PENALTY UNLV HL 10 yards to the UNLV42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 20
OWN 42
0
81.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for no gain to the UNLV 42Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 20
OWN 42
0
82.2%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 20
OWN 42
+25
87.8%
Armani Rogers pass intercepted Darreon Jackson return for 25 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27MISSED FG
12 plays · 19 yds · 3:5392% → 97%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
91.6%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+2
91.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 2 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+3
91.1%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 3 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+3
92.5%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 3 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
93.9%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
94.0%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+3
95.5%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 3 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+40
97.4%
Blake Grupe 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
92.2%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
92.4%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+11
92.8%
Armani Rogers run for 11 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
91.5%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-10
91.9%
ROGERS,Armani pass incomplete, PENALTY UNLV HL (JACOBSON,Nathan) 10 yards to the UNLV24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 20
OWN 24
+1
92.6%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 19
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Giovanni FauoloSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 19
OWN 25
-4
93.1%
Armani Rogers sacked by William Bradley-King for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 21 Armani Rogers fumbled, recovered by UNLV Nathan Jacobson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:19
Marcel Murray run for 39 yds for a TD
+27.5
TD · Q3 4:11
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD
-15.5
TD · Q3 1:38
Lexington Thomas run for 10 yds for a TD
-13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com