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ARST

Arkansas State 13 at Nevada 16

NEV
2018 · Postseason · Dec 29, 2018 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:20 · Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 28Home team on offense−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior−3.3Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:08: Marcel Murray run for 2 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +12.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 1:06: Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +65.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03: Timeout ARKANSAS ST, clock 00:03 — NEV win probability +12.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:00: Blake Grupe 32 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +40.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · OT 0:00: Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 19 — NEV win probability +15.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 10 of 13ARST made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:08NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:28ARST 4th & 4 at NEV 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    51.6%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:49NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:20ARST 4th & 1 at NEV 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:43ARST 4th & 16 at NEV 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:33NEV 4th & 2 at ARST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:16NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:13ARST 4th & 2 at NEV 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 13:07NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 11:32ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:09NEV 4th & 10 at ARST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−4.9
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:44NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:27ARST 4th & 1 at NEV 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%−2.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−12.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:27ARST 4th & 4 at NEV 4, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    56.5%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−11.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:26NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−3.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:57ARST 4th & 10 at NEV 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:55NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−3.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:25ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−2.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 12:13NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 43, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%−4.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:40ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−6.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:58NEV 4th & 17 at ARST 24, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.7 ptsWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%−6.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−12.8
    average punt
  24. Q4 4:04ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−4.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  25. Q4 1:44NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.3%−5.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 3:08ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 1:06NEV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−3.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
46.3%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+4
46.3%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 19
0
46.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Tyson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
46.3%
Cody Grace punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4047% → 47%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
46.6%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 14Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+1
46.5%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+6
46.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
46.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 41 yds, downed at the ArkSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:2953% → 53%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+30
46.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 30 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
46.5%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-5
46.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+8
47.0%
Justice Hansen run for 8 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 4
OPP 26
0
47.0%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
47.6%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+1
47.6%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
47.3%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
47.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 47 yds, downed at the ArkSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5MISSED FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 3:3752% → 51%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
47.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 9 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+13
47.2%
Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
47.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 8 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+11
46.8%
Warren Wand run for 11 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
46.9%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
46.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+3
46.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 3 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+3
47.2%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
46.6%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-8
46.6%
Justice Hansen sacked by Dom Peterson and Sam Hammond for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 16
OPP 30
0
47.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick Edwards, broken up by Justin BrentSimilar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 16
OPP 30
+47
48.6%
Blake Grupe 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:1049% → 49%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
48.5%
Ty Gangi run for 11 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
49.1%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+4
48.5%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
48.8%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+15
48.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
49.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
49.6%
Kelton Moore run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+1
49.5%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 2
OPP 37
-2
49.4%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
47.1%
NEVADA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
46.4%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-2
46.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
47.3%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Justin Brent return for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
49.1%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
49.0%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
48.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+1
48.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 36 yds , Warren Wand returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:0653% → 52%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
46.9%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
47.3%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+9
46.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 9 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
46.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
46.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+10
47.2%
Justice Hansen run for 10 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+3
46.6%
Kirk Merritt run for 3 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 2
OPP 32
0
48.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
50.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Ben PutmanSimilar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
50.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 9 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
51.4%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Nevad 41Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+3
50.6%
Quinton Conaway punt for 41 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 3 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
49.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+4
49.6%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
50.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
50.8%
Cody Grace punt for 38 yds, downed at the Nevad 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 5:0752% → 57%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
52.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Ben Putman for 21 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
53.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Ben Putman for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
53.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Demari MedleySimilar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+6
53.0%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
54.0%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
54.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
54.0%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
54.0%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 9
OPP 18
-2
54.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Crishaun Lappin for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+1
53.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trae Carter-Wells for 1 yd to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
56.6%
Ramiz Ahmed 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0144% → 61%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
56.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 43 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
51.7%
NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
51.4%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
51.4%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+12
52.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 12 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
51.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q2 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.0%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2443% → 40%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
43.3%
Ty Gangi sacked by Jarrod Chandler for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 17Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-2
42.9%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 15Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+10
42.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Dominic Christian for 10 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
40.4%
Quinton Conaway punt for 69 yds, downed at the ArkSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 86 yds · 1:2956% → 62%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
44.1%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+38
44.1%
Warren Wand run for 38 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
40.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+36
39.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 36 yds to the Nevad 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
38.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
38.0%
Blake Grupe 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0341% → 43%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
41.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
43.2%
Damon Foncham punt for 61 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Crishaun Lappin for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
44.5%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
44.0%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+3
43.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trae Carter-Wells for 3 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
42.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 51 yds, downed at the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18DOWNS
16 plays · 73 yds · 3:5957% → 58%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
42.8%
Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+3
41.5%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
42.1%
Justice Hansen sacked by Jarius McDade for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+25
42.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 25 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
40.2%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+10
40.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 10 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
39.0%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
39.4%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
40.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 5 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+9
42.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 9 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
39.5%
NEVADA Penalty, face mask (6 yards) (6 Yards) to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
39.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 2 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
39.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
40.3%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 4Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
42.4%
Lanard Bonner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
43.2%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
43.0%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted B.J. Edmonds return for no gain to the Nevad 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20INT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
37.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 4 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+10
37.2%
Warren Wand run for 10 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
37.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 12 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
37.2%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+1
37.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the Nevad 6Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+5
38.1%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Jomon Dotson return for 5 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+15
41.6%
Devonte Lee run for 15 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
42.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Ben PutmanSimilar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
42.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 18Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
40.5%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
39.8%
Quinton Conaway punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Warren Wand at the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
34.6%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
34.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
34.0%
Justice Hansen run for no gain to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
34.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Jomon DotsonSimilar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
34.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
37.1%
Cody Grace punt for 38 yds, downed at the Nevad 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
39.9%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
39.7%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Jerry Jacobs return for no gain to the Nevad 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24INT
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:4768% → 69%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
32.0%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+22
31.9%
Warren Wand run for 22 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
31.3%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Justin Brent return for 1 yd to the Nevad 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+11
39.6%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
40.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 13Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
39.9%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
38.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
37.6%
Quinton Conaway punt for 49 yds , Warren Wand returns for no gain to the ArkSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0067% → 63%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
32.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+2
34.7%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
34.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Daniel BrownSimilar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
36.9%
Cody Grace punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
39.8%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+13
39.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Cole Turner for 13 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
40.6%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 32Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+8
39.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Reagan Roberson for 8 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+3
42.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trae Carter-Wells for 3 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
41.4%
Quinton Conaway punt for 35 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
32.6%
Marcel Murray run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-11
28.9%
Justice Hansen sacked by Lucas Weber for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 21
OWN 34
0
32.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 21
OWN 34
+2
32.8%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 36 Marcel Murray fumbled, forced by Asauni Rufus, recovered by ArkSt Javonis IsaacSimilar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 19
OWN 36
+6
33.5%
Justice Hansen run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
34.0%
Cody Grace punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Berdale Robins at the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29DOWNS
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:3839% → 30%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
38.6%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+11
39.3%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+44
40.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Ben Putman for 44 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
47.6%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
47.6%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 7
OPP 14
-10
37.6%
Ty Gangi sacked by Dajon Emory for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 17
OPP 24
0
29.8%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0678% → 76%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
22.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
20.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
22.4%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
23.9%
Cody Grace punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Berdale Robins at the Nevad 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 31TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 2:3929% → 93%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
28.9%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-2
31.0%
Ty Gangi sacked by Dajon Emory for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+6
28.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Dominic Christian for 6 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
29.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 2 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
31.8%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
29.3%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+15
22.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Dominic Christian for 15 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
30.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange, broken up by Brandon BynerSimilar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+44
28.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Ben Putman for 44 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.4%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 32FG
23 plays · 0 yds · 16:0620% → 38%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
75.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 8 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
76.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 17 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
71.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Maliek BroadySimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+18
72.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 18 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
67.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+5
68.5%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+5
80.4%
NEVADA Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Nevad 14Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+32
39.5%
Blake Grupe 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
40.5%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+7
40.5%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
40.5%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
40.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Jomon DotsonSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+1
43.0%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the Nevad 7Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
49.6%
Blake Grupe 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
64.7%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
64.7%
Ty Gangi run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
64.7%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 13Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
64.7%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
62.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Reagan Roberson for 11 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:06
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)
+65.3
FG · Q4 0:00
Blake Grupe 32 yd FG GOOD
-40.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+37.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com