Arkansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1651st
  Defense+0.1738th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.9%51st
  Defense42.0%54th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2673rd
  Defense+1.2240th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1254th
  Defense+0.1721st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2251st
  Defense+0.1761st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.7%59th
  Defense48.0%42nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.4%27th
  Defense29.5%82nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6123rd
  Defense3.0134th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense23.9%14th
  Defense19.6%48th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.7%70th
  Defense1.8%38th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arkansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   MTST
2. L
   TENN
3. L
   MIA
4. W
   USU
5. W
   ULM
6. W
   GAST
7. L
   UL
8. W
   IDHO
9. W
   USA
10. L
    APP
11. L
    TXST
12. W
    NMSU
13. L
    TOL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Arkansas State.

Players, 2014

1. Fredi KnightenQB415 plays · +0.213 pts/play · 52nd of 199 QBs
   1.66WAR1.02 to 2.38
2. Michael GordonRB134 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 61st of 350 RBs
   0.31WAR0.20 to 0.42
3. Johnston WhiteRB64 plays · +0.165 pts/play · 118th of 350 RBs
   0.20WAR0.15 to 0.25
4. Dijon PaschalWR43 plays · +0.214 pts/play · 93rd of 469 WRs
   0.17WAR0.10 to 0.26
5. Tres HoustonWR45 plays · +0.172 pts/play · 128th of 469 WRs
   0.14WAR0.07 to 0.22
6. J.D. McKissicWR50 plays · +0.137 pts/play · 158th of 469 WRs
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.18
7. Luke FergusonPK36 plays · +0.118 pts/play · 84th of 114 kickers
   0.08WAR0.03 to 0.13
8. Warren LeapheartTE2 plays · −0.034 pts/play · 31st of 212 TEs
   0.00WAR0.00 to 0.00

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Arkansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arkansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at IDHOQ3 11:42 4th & 1 at ARST 48, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
2. vs USUQ3 11:39 4th & 1 at ARST 35, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
3. vs MTSTQ3 10:13 4th & 2 at MTST 42, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
4. at TXSTQ3 9:46 4th & 2 at TXST 2, down 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
5. at ULQ3 6:58 4th & 11 at ARST 8, down 11Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.8 pts
6. at ULQ3 12:54 4th & 2 at ARST 28, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs APPQ3 4:04 4th & 4 at ARST 40, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. at ULQ4 5:37 4th & 5 at UL 6, down 15Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

97th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Arkansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   MTST
2. L

   TENN
3. L

   MIA
4. W

   USU
5. W

   ULM
6. W

   GAST
7. L

   UL
8. W

   IDHO
9. W

   USA
10. L

    APP
11. L

    TXST
12. W

    NMSU
13. L

    TOL

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Arkansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.60
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock+0.10
• Timeouts−0.29
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.44

Game by game

• MTSTW 37-10 vs MTST76% → 100%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +26
• TENNL 19-34 at TENN11% → 1%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −15
• MIAL 20-41 at MIA10% → 0%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −14
• USUW 21-14 vs USU53% → 65%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +11: Timeouts −24, Clock +15
• ULMW 28-14 vs ULM74% → 98%Before kickoff +24 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +29, Timeouts −1
• GASTW 52-10 at GAST79% → 100%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +27
• ULL 40-55 at UL54% → 1%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −44, Timeouts −1
• IDHOW 44-28 at IDHO81% → 99%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +27, Clock +1
• USAW 45-10 vs USA73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +30
• APPL 32-37 vs APP83% → 10%Before kickoff +33 · On the field −74: Scoreboard −46, Clock −4
• TXSTL 27-45 at TXST64% → 1%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −63: Scoreboard −49, Timeouts −2
• NMSUW 68-35 vs NMSU93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +10
• TOLL 44-63 vs TOL45% → 1%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −50, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Arkansas State's side.

Closest call

ARST 30-29 APP (2025) - Arkansas State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.