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ARST

Arkansas State 40 at Louisiana 55

UL
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 21, 2014 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · Fredi Knighten sacked by Darzil Washington for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:19: Elijah McGuire 74 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick) — UL win probability +10.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:49: Elijah McGuire 13 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick) — UL win probability +8.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:14: Alonzo Harris 4 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick) — UL win probability +12.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:37: Dijon Paschal 6 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ARST win probability +6.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:12: Tres Houston 12 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Fredi Knighten Pass to Warren Leapheart for Two-Point Conversion) — ARST win probability +7.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 12:36UL 4th & 10 at UL 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:58ARST 4th & 21 at UL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:20ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:24ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:23ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−2.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:43UL 4th & 18 at UL 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−3.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:44UL 4th & 1 at ARST 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−2.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:08UL 4th & 11 at ARST 37, up 11
    Close callPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:54ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 28, down 11
    Close callPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:17UL 4th & 19 at ARST 35, up 11
    Close callPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−1.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    76.6%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:58ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 8, down 11
    Numbers favored punt by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%−1.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:29ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:01UL 4th & 12 at UL 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 48, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:55ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 48, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:28ARST 4th & 9 at UL 32, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:10ARST 4th & 10 at UL 12, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−3.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:56UL 4th & 8 at UL 38, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:37ARST 4th & 5 at UL 6, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−2.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:12ARST 4th & 12 at UL 12, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:22ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:45UL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:20UL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:16UL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:19UL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:49UL Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 7:52ARST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 4:29ARST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:14UL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:37ARST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.7%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:30UL Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:12ARST Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 0:54UL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:1946% → 47%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
46.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+1
46.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+5
46.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 5 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.6%
Alonzo Harris run for no gain to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
46.6%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
46.5%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Devin ScottSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+4
46.5%
Daniel Cadona punt for 55 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:1353% → 54%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
46.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-2
46.5%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Boris Anyama for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+9
46.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 9 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
46.0%
Fredi Knighten 60 Yd Run (Luke Ferguson PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:1546% → 49%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
46.2%
Terrance Broadway run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+21
46.2%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Devin Scott for 21 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
46.5%
Alonzo Harris run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
46.8%
Alonzo Harris run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
46.8%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+34
46.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to James Butler for 34 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
47.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+4
47.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
48.7%
Alonzo Harris 4 Yd Run (Hunter Stover PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 2:3252% → 52%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+55
47.6%
J.D. McKissic run for 55 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
46.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+15
46.6%
Michael Gordon run for 15 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
46.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-1
46.6%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
-8
46.9%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Christian Ringo for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 16
OPP 22
-5
48.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Austin Moreton) to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 21
OPP 27
+44
47.8%
Luke Ferguson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3547% → 52%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
46.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
46.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to C.J. Bates for 14 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
48.0%
Jalen Nixon run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+13
48.3%
Alonzo Harris run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
48.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
49.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
49.3%
Jalen Nixon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+22
51.9%
Alonzo Harris 22 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6INT
10 plays · 10 yds · 1:5149% → 47%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
50.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 8 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
50.2%
J.D. McKissic pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-5
50.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Devin Mondie) to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+5
51.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 2
OWN 29
+11
53.1%
Rocky Hayes run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
51.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-10
51.7%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Christian Ringo for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 19
OWN 31
+30
53.5%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Corey Trim return for 30 yds to the ULLAFAYTTE 39 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Fredi Knighten) to the ArkSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.7%
Alonzo Harris 1 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:4642% → 40%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
58.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 19 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
58.1%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
58.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
59.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
59.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 2:0159% → 70%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
59.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
59.8%
Terrance Broadway run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
59.7%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
70.3%
Elijah McGuire 74 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4731% → 29%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
69.5%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
69.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
70.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
71.1%
Stephen Hogan punt for 33 yds, downed at the LaLaf 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:3172% → 81%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
72.4%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+16
72.4%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (NA) to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
72.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
81.4%
Elijah McGuire 13 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:5327% → 28%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
72.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 5 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
72.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+70
71.6%
Michael Gordon 70 Yd Run (Luke Ferguson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:5073% → 75%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
73.3%
Terrance Broadway run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
74.3%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 1 yd to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-10
74.8%
McGuire, Elijah rush for 4 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE43, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE holding (Byrne, Nick) 10 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+6
74.5%
Alonzo Harris run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
75.0%
Terrance Broadway run for no gain to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 13
OWN 35
-5
74.6%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Illegal Formation (NA) to the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 4:43
4TH & 18
OWN 30
+2
74.6%
Daniel Cadona punt for 59 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
1 play · 87 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
68.5%
Dijon Paschal 87 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Luke Ferguson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16PUNT
14 plays · 38 yds · 3:1267% → 70%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.8%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
66.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to C.J. Bates for 14 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
68.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 6 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
69.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
69.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
70.6%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Jarrell RogersSimilar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+3
70.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
70.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
72.2%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Larry PettisSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
72.1%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Xavier Woodson for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 11
OPP 37
0
71.2%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 11
OPP 37
0
70.1%
Daniel Cadona punt for 32 yds, downed at the ArkSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17END OF HALF
8 plays · 51 yds · 1:0028% → 26%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
71.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+23
72.5%
Michael Gordon run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
72.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
72.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 11 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
74.0%
Michael Gordon run for 18 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5029% → 27%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
70.9%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
70.4%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
71.8%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
73.3%
Luke Ferguson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 4:3373% → 75%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
73.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ja'Von Rolland-Jones) to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 5
OWN 36
+3
74.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+3
75.0%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
75.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 2
50
+11
75.8%
Terrance Broadway run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
76.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+4
77.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
77.3%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, False Start (Daniel Quave) to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+1
77.6%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 14
OPP 30
-5
77.4%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (NA) to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 19
OPP 35
0
77.7%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 19
OPP 35
0
76.8%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to C.J. BatesSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 19
OPP 35
0
75.2%
Daniel Cadona punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1224% → 21%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
75.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+2
76.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 2 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 11
OWN 8
0
77.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 11
OWN 8
-2
78.8%
Chris Stone pass complete to Luke Ferguson for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3279% → 92%
Q3 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
79.2%
Alonzo Harris run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.8%
Alonzo Harris 4 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3110% → 9%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.8%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
90.0%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
90.4%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Justin Hamilton for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
91.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 42 yds, downed at the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:2493% → 93%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
92.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
92.8%
Terrance Broadway run for no gain to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-10
93.3%
Broadway, Terrance pass complete to McGuire, Elijah for 19 yards to the ARKST42, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE holding (Quave, Daniel) 10 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+5
92.8%
Alonzo Harris run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 12
OWN 34
-7
92.7%
Daniel Cadona punt for 49 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 10 Blaise Taylor fumbled, recovered by ArkStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FG
22 plays · 78 yds · 6:458% → 6%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
92.3%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+3
92.6%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+13
93.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 13 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
93.1%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Mays, Booker, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE pass interference 15 yards to the ARKST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
93.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to J.D. McKissicSimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
93.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 7 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-1
93.2%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 48
-1
92.3%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+5
92.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
92.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 8 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+6
92.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 6 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
92.2%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+4
92.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-2
93.6%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+20
93.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 20 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
93.5%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
93.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 5 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 5
OPP 7
-15
95.1%
McKissic, J.D. rush for no gain to the ULLAFAYTTE7, PENALTY ARKST face mask (Houston, Tres) 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 20
OPP 22
+10
95.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 10 yds to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
94.0%
Luke Ferguson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25FUMBLE
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0695% → 96%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.1%
Terrance Broadway run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
95.5%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+4
95.4%
Alonzo Harris run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
96.0%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
95.6%
Daniel Cadona punt for 49 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 7 Blaise Taylor fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Blaise Taylor ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) to the ArkSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 2:145% → 11%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
95.4%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+8
95.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 8 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+12
95.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 12 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+65
94.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 56 yds to the ULLAFAYTTE 20 for a 1ST down UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Roughing Passer (Chris Prater) to the LaLaf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
94.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+3
94.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 3 yds to the LaLaf 6Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
95.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+6
88.7%
Dijon Paschal 6 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:5593% → 99%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
93.1%
Alonzo Harris run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+3
93.3%
Alonzo Harris run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
93.8%
Alonzo Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+43
98.9%
Elijah McGuire 43 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:133% → 11%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
50
+12
96.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Kenneth Rains for 12 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
96.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 19 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
96.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 13 yds to the LaLaf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
96.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
96.4%
Brandon Cox run for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
97.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
89.4%
Tres Houston 12 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Fredi Knighten Pass to Warren Leapheart for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 29TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 0:1698% → 99%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
98.4%
Alonzo Harris run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-2
98.5%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+54
99.3%
Elijah McGuire 54 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:351% → 1%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Byner for 6 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-11
99.1%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Darzil Washington for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:14
Alonzo Harris 4 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)
+12.6
TD · Q2 11:19
Elijah McGuire 74 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)
+10.6
TD · Q2 8:49
Elijah McGuire 13 Yd Run (Hunter Stover Kick)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com