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ARST

Arkansas State 44 at Idaho 28

IDHO
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Kibbie Dome
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Win probability · IDHO
modelIDHO aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playIDHO scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFUMBLETDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:00 · Luke Ferguson punt for 43 yds , Richard Montgomery returns for no gain to the Idaho 46 Richard Montgomery fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Andrew Tryon
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior−13.3Home team on offense+4.6Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:03: Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +17.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:34: Michael Gordon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +18.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:58: Jerrel Brown run for 16 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +20.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:07: Michael Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Ferguson PAT MISSED) — ARST win probability +19.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:41: Michael Gordon run for 23 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +18.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IDHO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:25ARST 4th & 8 at IDHO 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:31IDHO 4th & 2 at IDHO 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:28ARST 4th & 1 at IDHO 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−0.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    79.1%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:39ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:37IDHO 4th & 17 at IDHO 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:51ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:36ARST 4th & 25 at ARST 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−2.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:07ARST 4th & 5 at IDHO 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−1.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:19IDHO 4th & 10 at ARST 39, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:42ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 48, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:00ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:58IDHO 4th & 5 at IDHO 30, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:19ARST 4th & 12 at IDHO 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−5.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−19.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:40IDHO 4th & 19 at IDHO 26, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:05ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 25, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:37IDHO 4th & 7 at IDHO 41, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:23ARST 4th & 19 at IDHO 30, up 16
    Close callWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00IDHO 4th & 10 at IDHO 16, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IDHO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:15ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:49IDHO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:17IDHO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:03IDHO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:34ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:58IDHO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:07ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:41ARST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:35ARST Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:3081% → 80%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
18.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
19.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
19.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
19.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Brandon CoxSimilar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+12
19.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 12 yds to the Idaho 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
19.5%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 16
50
+8
19.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Daryl Rollins-Davis for 8 yds to the Idaho 42Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
19.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
20.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 2INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:3820% → 21%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
20.2%
Jerrel Brown run for 2 yds to the Idaho 22Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-7
20.5%
Matt Linehan sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Idaho 15Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+18
20.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 18 yds to the Idaho 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
21.0%
Matt Linehan pass intercepted Sterling Young return for a loss of 3 yards to the Idaho 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:1679% → 80%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
20.6%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 44Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+44
19.6%
Michael Gordon run for 44 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3820% → 20%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
20.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 6 yds to the Idaho 31Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
20.3%
Jerrel Brown run for 2 yds to the Idaho 33Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
20.3%
Jerrel Brown run for no gain to the Idaho 33Similar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+8
20.2%
Austin Rehkow punt for 42 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 8 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:5280% → 80%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
20.0%
Michael Gordon run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
19.9%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+9
20.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
50
+3
19.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 3 yds to the Idaho 47Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
20.0%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the Idaho 43Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
20.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 2 yds to the Idaho 41Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-1
20.4%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 6INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:5221% → 22%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
21.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 5 yds to the Idaho 47Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
21.8%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
21.6%
Matt Linehan pass intercepted Artez Brown return for no gain to the ArkSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4579% → 78%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
21.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Tres Houston) to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+1
21.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 1 yd to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 14
OWN 10
+9
21.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 9 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+3
21.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
21.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by David Ungerer at the Idaho 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5722% → 21%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
21.6%
Jerrel Brown run for 2 yds to the Idaho 40Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
21.9%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-10
21.4%
IDAHO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Idaho 30Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+1
21.0%
Matt Linehan run for 1 yd to the Idaho 31Similar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 17
OWN 31
+56
21.0%
Austin Rehkow punt for 69 yds for a touchback IDAHO Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Jacob Sannon)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2679% → 78%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
21.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
20.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to J.D. McKissicSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
-1
20.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
21.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by David Ungerer at the Idaho 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 10FUMBLE TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 4:2222% → 22%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
21.7%
Matt Linehan run for 10 yds to the Idaho 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
21.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 16 yds to the Idaho 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
22.7%
Jerrel Brown run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
23.4%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
23.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 10 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
23.6%
Matt Linehan run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+10
24.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 10 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
24.6%
Jerrel Brown run for no gain to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+8
24.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jake Manley for 8 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+2
24.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
26.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 2 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 0
OPP 7
+93
21.9%
Matt Linehan run for no gain, Matt Linehan fumbled, forced by Xavier Woodson, recovered by ArkSt Rocky Hayes , return for 93 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2620% → 27%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for 5 yds to the Idaho 30Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
19.7%
Elijhaa Penny run for 14 yds to the Idaho 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
20.2%
Matt Linehan run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
20.4%
Matt Linehan run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+10
20.4%
Linehan, Matt pass incomplete to McCain, Joshua, PENALTY ARKST holding (Tryon, Andrew) 10 yards to the ARKST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IDAHO. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
20.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+27
20.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 27 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.6%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
26.5%
Matt Linehan run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 34 Matt Linehan fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Dexter BlackmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:5778% → 75%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
22.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Alan Wright) to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
22.8%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+1
23.1%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 14
OWN 30
-6
23.6%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Marc Millan for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 20
OWN 24
-5
25.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 25
OWN 19
+24
25.5%
Luke Ferguson punt for 38 yds , David Ungerer returns for 24 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 14TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:0027% → 39%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
27.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 1
OPP 24
-3
27.5%
Chad Chalich run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+7
25.9%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Deon Watson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
27.1%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+10
27.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
38.7%
Jerrel Brown run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:0368% → 73%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
31.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 30 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
28.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the Idaho 40Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
28.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the Idaho 38Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+9
28.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 9 yds to the Idaho 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
27.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
27.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the Idaho 23Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+7
28.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 7 yds to the Idaho 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
27.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the Idaho 13Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
27.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the Idaho 11Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
29.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
27.4%
Luke Ferguson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+34
29.4%
Jerrel Brown run for 34 yds to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 17MISSED FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:2631% → 31%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+39
30.9%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 39 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
34.3%
Jerrel Brown run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-2
34.2%
Chad Chalich run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
33.3%
Chad Chalich pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+56
30.6%
Austin Rehkow 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2872% → 70%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
28.3%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
28.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
28.9%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 11:42
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
30.5%
Luke Ferguson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by David Ungerer at the Idaho 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 19TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:3231% → 55%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+35
31.2%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 35 yds to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
34.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
35.6%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Deon WatsonSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+21
35.6%
Chad Chalich run for 21 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
37.2%
Elijhaa Penny run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+3
37.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
37.7%
Chad Chalich run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.7%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4551% → 46%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
49.5%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 12
OWN 6
-4
50.5%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 16
OWN 2
+6
52.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
53.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 43 yds , Richard Montgomery returns for no gain to the Idaho 46 Richard Montgomery fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Andrew TryonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:1854% → 72%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+39
45.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 39 yds to the Idaho 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
27.6%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2934% → 62%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
33.8%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 11 yds to the Idaho 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
35.3%
Jerrel Brown run for 1 yd to the Idaho 37Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
35.1%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the Idaho 40Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
34.4%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
50
+8
38.4%
Elijhaa Penny run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+11
39.2%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 11 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
40.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Andrew Tryon) to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
41.7%
Jerrel Brown run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
61.9%
Jerrel Brown run for 16 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:2949% → 71%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
51.1%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Quinton Bradley for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+2
53.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+13
54.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 13 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
49.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 15 yds to the Idaho 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
48.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Daryl Rollins-Davis for 18 yds to the Idaho 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
48.1%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the Idaho 12Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+11
48.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 11 yds to the Idaho 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.4%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Ferguson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0240% → 37%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the Idaho 28Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-14
39.8%
Chalich, Chad pass incomplete, PENALTY IDAHO personal foul 14 yards to the IDAHO14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+16
37.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 16 yds to the Idaho 30Similar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+3
37.1%
Austin Rehkow punt for 49 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Booker Mays) to the ArkSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25MISSED FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:2865% → 64%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
34.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 8 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+2
33.6%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
34.2%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
34.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 5 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+10
35.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Daryl Rollins-Davis for 10 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
33.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Daryl Rollins-Davis for 7 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+6
31.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
50
0
31.0%
Tres Houston pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 10
50
-6
31.3%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Kaylyn Ayers for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+35
35.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 35 yds to the Idaho 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
29.6%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 23Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 12
OPP 23
0
30.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Johnston WhiteSimilar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 12
OPP 23
0
32.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
36.5%
Luke Ferguson 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 26INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3442% → 42%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
42.3%
Jerrel Brown run for 2 yds to the Idaho 25Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
42.4%
Chad Chalich pass intercepted Artez Brown return for no gain to the Idaho 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 0:4968% → 89%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
31.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 9 yds to the Idaho 29Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+11
29.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 11 yds to the Idaho 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
29.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Idaho 23Similar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+23
11.2%
Michael Gordon run for 23 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 28FUMBLE
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:3615% → 14%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
14.6%
IDAHO Penalty, False Start (Buck Cowan) to the Idaho 20Similar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-10
14.4%
IDAHO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jesse Davis) to the Idaho 10Similar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 25
OWN 10
-5
14.2%
IDAHO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Rose) to the Idaho 5Similar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 30
OWN 5
+5
13.6%
Jerrel Brown run for 5 yds to the Idaho 8 Jerrel Brown fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Darrius RosserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:2590% → 96%
Q4 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
10.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the Idaho 4Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.1%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:485% → 4%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
5.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 10 yds to the Idaho 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
5.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the Idaho 37Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-3
4.9%
Matt Linehan sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Idaho 34Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-8
3.6%
Matt Linehan sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the Idaho 26Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 19
OWN 26
0
3.5%
Austin Rehkow punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 31PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:3596% → 98%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
3.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 20
OWN 12
-1
3.3%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 21
OWN 11
+1
2.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 20
OWN 12
+13
2.8%
Michael Gordon run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
2.5%
Luke Ferguson punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Idaho 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 32DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:243% → 3%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
2.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 3 yds to the Idaho 41Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
2.5%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
2.5%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Elijhaa PennySimilar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 7
OWN 41
-5
2.5%
Matt Linehan sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Idaho 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 33DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:1498% → 98%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
2.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Kyle Harris) to the Idaho 46Similar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+7
2.2%
IDAHO Penalty, Personal Foul (Jayshawn Jordan) to the Idaho 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
2.2%
IDAHO Penalty, Personal Foul (18 Yards) to the Idaho 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
1.7%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 6 yds to the Idaho 15Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-15
1.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Kyle Harris) to the Idaho 30Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 19
OPP 30
-3
1.7%
Brandon Byner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Idaho 33Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 22
OPP 33
+3
1.7%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 3 yds to the Idaho 30Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 19
OPP 30
+14
1.8%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 14 yds to the Idaho 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 34INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:191% → 1%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
0.9%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
0.9%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
0.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Buck CowanSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 16
+4
0.9%
Matt Linehan pass intercepted Frankie Jackson return for 4 yds to the Idaho 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:58
Jerrel Brown run for 16 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)
+20.2
TD · Q3 0:07
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Ferguson PAT MISSED)
-19.3
TD · Q4 7:41
Michael Gordon run for 23 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)
-18.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com