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ARST

Arkansas State 20 at Miami 41

MIA
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:13 · Luke Ferguson punt for 41 yds , Phillip Dorsett returns for no gain to the MiaFl 33 Phillip Dorsett fumbled, recovered by MiaFl
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior+39.3Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:12: Duke Johnson run for 33 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley MISSED) — MIA win probability +1.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:16: Gus Edwards run for 27 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +4.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:23: Tres Houston pass complete to Fredi Knighten for 19 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +6.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:32: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 63 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +5.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:11: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +2.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:13ARST 4th & 25 at ARST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:59ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:20ARST 4th & 5 at MIA 19, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:55ARST 4th & 6 at MIA 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:52MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 32, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:06ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:21MIA 4th & 29 at MIA 6, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:55ARST 4th & 6 at MIA 41, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:50ARST 4th & 9 at MIA 40, down 13
    Close callPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:21MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 11, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:07ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 16, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:43ARST 4th & 20 at ARST 20, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.2%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:53MIA 4th & 15 at ARST 46, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:13ARST 4th & 1 at MIA 18, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:01ARST 4th & 11 at MIA 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:53MIA 4th & 3 at ARST 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:52MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:03ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:21MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:16MIA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:23ARST Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:32MIA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:11MIA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · -4 yds · 1:3210% → 10%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
90.0%
Johnston White run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
89.9%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
89.9%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
89.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the ArkSt 19 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Fredi KnightenSimilar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 32
OWN 19
+7
89.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 25
OWN 26
0
89.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 41 yds , Phillip Dorsett returns for no gain to the MiaFl 33 Phillip Dorsett fumbled, recovered by MiaFlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:2689% → 90%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
89.4%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+63
89.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 63 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:4410% → 12%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
89.6%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
89.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+10
89.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 10 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
89.4%
Johnston White run for no gain to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+18
89.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 18 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
89.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 6 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+6
89.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
89.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 11 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
89.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 11 yds to the MiaFl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.0%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:3088% → 90%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
88.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+51
88.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 51 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
89.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 19 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 2:1611% → 11%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
DeKeathan Williams run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to DeKeathan Williams for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
89.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 8 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Warren LeapheartSimilar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
88.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Tyler Greve) to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+2
88.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
89.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
89.0%
Luke Ferguson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:4089% → 91%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
88.9%
Duke Johnson run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
89.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
88.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 5 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
89.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Clive Walford) to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+24
88.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 24 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
89.0%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+33
90.9%
Duke Johnson run for 33 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 2:3710% → 10%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
90.2%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
89.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+9
89.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 9 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
89.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 6 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
89.5%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 39 Terrance Hollingsworth fumbled, forced by Deon Bush, recovered by ArkSt Brandon Cox for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
89.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+17
89.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tracy Howard) to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
89.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
89.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 5 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
89.8%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
90.0%
Luke Ferguson 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5191% → 91%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-9
91.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ereck Flowers) to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+17
91.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 17 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
91.1%
Ronald Regula run for no gain to the MiaFl 29 Ronald Regula fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Ja'Von Rolland-JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1911% → 10%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
89.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Byner for 9 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
89.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to J.D. McKissicSimilar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
89.8%
Brandon Byner run for no gain to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 1
OPP 20
-5
89.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Devin Mondie) to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
90.1%
Luke Ferguson 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5391% → 91%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
91.4%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Xavier Woodson for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+1
91.4%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+12
91.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 12 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
91.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 43 yds, downed at the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3510% → 9%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
90.0%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
90.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
90.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-1
90.2%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 46 Fredi Knighten fumbled, forced by Tyriq McCord, recovered by ArkSt Brandon BynerSimilar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
90.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Phillip Dorsett at the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:3892% → 91%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
91.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Artez Brown) to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.6%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-11
91.6%
Brad Kaaya sacked by TEAM for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaFl 12 MIAMI FL Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Brad Kaaya) to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 23
OWN 12
-5
91.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 28
OWN 7
-1
91.0%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Frankie Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 29
OWN 6
0
90.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13INT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:2010% → 9%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
90.4%
Brandon Byner run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
90.3%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+6
90.0%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
90.0%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
90.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Brandon CoxSimilar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+7
90.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-5
90.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Tres Houston) to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 6
OPP 41
-1
90.7%
Luke Ferguson pass intercepted Raphael Kirby return for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:3292% → 97%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
91.7%
Duke Johnson run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
92.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 6 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-7
92.2%
Phillip Dorsett run for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+21
91.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 21 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
92.3%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-5
92.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
92.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 8 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+27
97.0%
Gus Edwards run for 27 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 0:364% → 11%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
95.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 18 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
95.7%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+15
95.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Artie Burns) to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
88.9%
Tres Houston pass complete to Fredi Knighten for 19 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
91.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:0111% → 10%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
89.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 12 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
89.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
89.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Terrance HollingsworthSimilar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
89.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
89.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 35 yds, downed at the MiaFl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2291% → 90%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
91.1%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+6
91.1%
Duke Johnson run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
90.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
90.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 48 yds, downed at the ArkSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19FUMBLE
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3110% → 10%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
89.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
89.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+10
90.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 10 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
89.9%
Brandon Byner run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+13
89.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 13 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
89.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+3
89.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
90.2%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the MiaFl 40 Fredi Knighten fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Olsen PierreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:4592% → 97%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
92.3%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 43 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ereck Flowers) to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 17
OWN 33
+4
91.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 4 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+63
97.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 63 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:153% → 3%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
97.2%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+2
97.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 2 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
97.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+48
97.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 48 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5097% → 100%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
97.4%
Duke Johnson run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
97.6%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
97.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+9
97.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 9 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
97.7%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+33
97.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 33 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.7%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Ufomba Kamalu for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Ufomba Kamalu) to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.7%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-16
99.7%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Deon Bush for a loss of 16 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 20
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Ufomba Kamalu for 0 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 20
OWN 20
+21
99.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 36 yds, downed at the MIAMIFL 44 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the ArkSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
99.8%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 15
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Jake Heaps pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 15
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Jake Heaps pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25TD
16 plays · 89 yds · 5:510% → 1%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
99.8%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+3
99.9%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+4
99.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 4 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
DeKeathan Williams run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+18
99.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Blake Mack for 18 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
DeKeathan Williams run for no gain to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+29
99.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 29 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 7 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+2
99.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
99.8%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+11
99.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 11 yds to the MiaFl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q4 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for no gain to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.8%
Johnston White run for 7 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:2699% → 100%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
99.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Danny Isidora) to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+4
99.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+26
99.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Andrew Tryon) to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
99.4%
Gus Edwards run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
99.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+15
99.5%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted for a 1ST down Qushaun Lee return for 13 yds to the MIAMIFL 39 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Chris Stone) to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
99.2%
Johnston White run for 27 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to J.D. McKissicSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
99.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.2%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 6
OPP 26
-5
99.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Jemar Clark) to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 11
OPP 31
-11
99.3%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Thurston Armbrister for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28END OF GAME
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:47100% → 100%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
99.6%
Trayone Gray run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
99.6%
Trayone Gray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
99.6%
Jake Heaps run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+7
99.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+10
99.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
99.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:23
Tres Houston pass complete to Fredi Knighten for 19 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)
-6.4
TD · Q3 8:32
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 63 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q2 1:16
Gus Edwards run for 27 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com