Arkansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0922nd
  Defense+0.335th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense35.7%3rd
  Defense46.0%22nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3889th
  Defense+1.482nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.112nd
  Defense+0.361st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2455th
  Defense+0.3218th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense39.9%4th
  Defense51.6%18th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense28.4%22nd
  Defense33.8%24th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8422nd
  Defense3.3216th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.3%21st
  Defense15.6%35th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense22.6%2nd
  Defense16.2%41st

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arkansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   CARK
2. L
   MEM
3. L
   WASH
4. L
   TLSA
5. L
   GASO
6. L
   CCU
7. L
   UL
8. L
   USA
9. L
   APP
10. W
    ULM
11. L
    GAST
12. L
    TXST

Bars above the line: better than expected for Arkansas State.

Players, 2021

1. Layne HatcherQB291 plays · +0.276 pts/play · 60th of 219 QBs
   1.50WAR1.03 to 2.01
2. James BlackmanQB168 plays · +0.220 pts/play · 107th of 219 QBs
   0.69WAR0.35 to 1.08
3. Lincoln PareRB96 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 138th of 387 RBs
   0.32WAR0.25 to 0.40
4. Corey RuckerWR56 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 83rd of 474 WRs
   0.18WAR0.11 to 0.25
5. Ryan HansonP46 plays · +0.201 pts/play · 17th of 101 punters
   0.17WAR0.06 to 0.28
6. Johnnie LangRB63 plays · +0.133 pts/play · 244th of 387 RBs
   0.16WAR0.11 to 0.20
7. Jeff ForemanWR40 plays · +0.185 pts/play · 158th of 474 WRs
   0.14WAR0.09 to 0.19
8. Blake GrupePK18 plays · +0.158 pts/play · 90th of 128 kickers
   0.05WAR−0.01 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Arkansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  47647683rd of 130Roster talent: 476, 83rd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14314393rd of 130Recruiting: 143, 93rd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  70%70%74th of 128Returning production: 70%, 74th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −17.9−17.9119th of 130SP+ rating: −17.9, 119th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arkansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.20 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at WASHQ4 3:34 4th & 3 at WASH 16, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−3.8 pts
2. at WASHQ4 12:40 4th & 1 at ARST 44, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.2 pts
3. at ULMQ4 5:18 4th & 2 at ARST 35, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−3.0 pts
4. at GASTQ3 1:16 4th & 2 at ARST 25, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. vs CARKQ2 15:00 4th & 1 at ARST 49, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. vs MEMQ3 5:44 4th & 7 at MEM 40, down 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. at WASHQ2 2:21 4th & 2 at ARST 47, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. at TLSAQ4 6:45 4th & 4 at TLSA 33, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

109th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Arkansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   CARK
2. L

   MEM
3. L

   WASH
4. L

   TLSA
5. L

   GASO
6. L

   CCU
7. L

   UL
8. L

   USA
9. L

   APP
10. W

    ULM
11. L

    GAST
12. L

    TXST

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Arkansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.94
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock−0.06
• Timeouts+0.04
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.82

Game by game

• CARKW 40-21 vs CARK84% → 99%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts +1
• MEML 50-55 vs MEM35% → 11%Before kickoff −15 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −38, Clock −3
• WASHL 3-52 at WASH10% → 19%Before kickoff −40 · On the field +9: Scoreboard −14, Timeouts +3
• TLSAL 34-41 at TLSA17% → 4%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −21, Clock −1
• GASOL 33-59 at GASO47% → 0%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −46: Scoreboard −45, Timeouts +1
• CCUL 20-52 vs CCU9% → 0%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −14
• ULL 27-28 vs UL12% → 5%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −23, Clock −1
• USAL 13-31 at USA26% → 1%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −29
• APPL 14-48 vs APP8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −13
• ULMW 27-24 at ULM39% → 76%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +36, Clock +2
• GASTL 20-28 at GAST13% → 2%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −18
• TXSTL 22-24 vs TXST59% → 24%Before kickoff +9 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −37, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Arkansas State's side.

Closest call

ARST 30-29 APP (2025) - Arkansas State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.