Try the model
ARST

Arkansas State 27 at UL Monroe 24

ULM
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Malone Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:48 · Ryan Hanson punt for 53 yds, downed at the LaMon 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense+10.0Pregame prior+2.7Score differential+2.1Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:48: Malik Jackson run for 75 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +14.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:01: Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Jevin Frett for 17 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +12.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:26: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 22 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +13.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:56: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 20 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +28.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:17: Blake Grupe 42 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +28.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 10 of 12ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:03ULM 4th & 13 at ULM 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:05ULM 4th & 21 at ULM 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:41ULM 4th & 18 at ARST 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    54.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:27ARST 4th & 2 at ULM 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    47.6%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:19ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:10ARST 4th & 5 at ULM 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:58ULM 4th & 10 at ARST 39, down 10
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    44.9%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:04ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:28ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:08ULM 4th & 21 at ULM 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:28ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:56ARST 4th & 1 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.5%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:00ULM 4th & 2 at ARST 15, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%−1.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−10.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:32ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−2.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:00ULM 4th & 11 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:48ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:46ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−3.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:46ARST 4th & 2 at ULM 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−1.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−5.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:11ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−1.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:18ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 35, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%−3.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:58ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−3.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:17ARST 4th & 3 at ULM 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%−0.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−29.9
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:17ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.2%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:15ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:33ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:48ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:01ULM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:26ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:56ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:0339% → 39%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
61.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+1
61.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
61.0%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted return for no gain to the LaMon 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4661% → 61%
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
61.2%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
61.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
61.0%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
61.0%
Devyn McCormick punt for 38 yds, downed at the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:4839% → 41%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
61.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 36 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
60.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
60.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+13
60.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 13 yds to the LaMon 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
60.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
59.2%
Corey Rucker run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:1060% → 58%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.7%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
59.7%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Boogie Knight for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
59.8%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
59.8%
Malik Jackson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-3
60.0%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-15
59.7%
RODRIGUEZ, Rhett pass to the left complete for 43 yards to FRETT, Jevin caught at the ASU29 and advanced to the ASU19 (JOHNSON, Samy). PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on FRETT, Jevin enforced 15 yards to the ULM23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 23
OWN 23
+2
59.5%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Malik Jackson for 2 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 21
OWN 25
0
58.4%
Devyn McCormick punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:0742% → 43%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
58.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 17 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
58.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
58.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 5 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
58.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
56.8%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted return for no gain to the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:1758% → 56%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
57.9%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 11 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.2%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
58.1%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Caleb Bonner for 0 yards to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+23
57.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Coby Cavil for 23 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
58.8%
Jakyle Holmes run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+3
59.2%
Jakyle Holmes run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
59.2%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Thurman Geathers for 0 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 18
OPP 39
0
58.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 18
OPP 39
0
58.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 18
OPP 39
0
56.1%
Devyn McCormick punt for 38 yds, downed at the ArkSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:1444% → 47%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+10
56.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
56.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 14 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
56.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 12 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
55.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
55.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+11
55.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
50
+7
55.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 7 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+10
54.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 10 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
54.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
52.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 5 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+3
52.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 3 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q2 14:27
4TH & 2
OPP 25
0
53.2%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for no gain to the LaMon 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0854% → 53%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.2%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
54.4%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
53.6%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Malik Jackson for 5 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+50
53.3%
Devyn McCormick punt for 40 yds, downed at the ULMONROE 28 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kenneth Harris) to the ArkSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9FG
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:0947% → 50%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
53.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+61
53.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 61 yds to the LaMon 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
51.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
51.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+1
51.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Alan Lamar for 1 yd to the LaMon 13Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
50.2%
Blake Grupe 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:1249% → 46%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
48.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 6 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
48.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
49.4%
Chandler Rogers run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
50.6%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
50.6%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Jaden Harris for 0 yards to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+4
49.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
46.4%
Devyn McCormick punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5453% → 54%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
46.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+10
47.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 10 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
46.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
47.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+9
47.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Seydou Traore for 9 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 1
OWN 33
-1
45.9%
Wyatt Begeal run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12INT
3 plays · -15 yds · 0:4049% → 46%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
48.5%
Jakyle Holmes run for no gain to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-15
48.4%
RODRIGUEZ, Rhett pass to the left complete for 32 yards to LLOYD JR., Fred caught at the ASU2 and advanced to the ASU0, TOUCHDOWN ULM, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on LLOYD JR., Fred enforced 15 yards to the ASU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 25
OPP 47
0
46.2%
Rhett Rodriguez pass intercepted return for no gain to the ArkSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5654% → 55%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
45.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+5
45.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 5 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 3
OWN 13
-2
46.3%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 5
OWN 11
0
45.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:2045% → 41%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
44.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 2 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
44.9%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Vidal Scott and John Mincey for 0 yards to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-12
43.7%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 12 yards to the LaMon 31 fumbled, recovered by LaMon Chandler RogersSimilar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 21
OWN 31
0
40.6%
Devyn McCormick punt for 41 yds, downed at the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4058% → 57%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
42.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 34
-3
40.4%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
41.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
42.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 0:5541% → 56%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+53
40.9%
Malik Jackson run for 53 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
44.4%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
43.2%
Malik Jackson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
55.9%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
50.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
65.3%
Malik Jackson run for 75 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4137% → 37%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
62.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+4
62.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 4 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 14:37
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
62.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Seydou Traore for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 1
50
0
63.0%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:5568% → 82%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
50
0
67.9%
Jiya Wright sacked by Caleb Bonner and Joe Ozougwu for 0 yards to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 18
OWN 42
-3
65.7%
Rhett Rodriguez run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 39 fumbled, recovered by LaMon Rhett RodriguezSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 21
OWN 39
+32
64.4%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Boogie Knight for 32 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
68.8%
Malik Jackson run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+4
68.8%
Malik Jackson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
68.8%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
81.7%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Jevin Frett for 17 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:2821% → 37%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
79.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
79.2%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+12
78.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 12 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
77.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jordyn Riley) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
75.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 29Similar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 15
OPP 29
0
76.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+7
76.7%
Wyatt Begeal run for 7 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+22
63.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 22 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:2669% → 78%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
68.9%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+36
68.6%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Jevin Frett for 36 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
72.0%
Rhett Rodriguez run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
72.8%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
72.7%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+8
71.3%
Malik Jackson run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
77.6%
Calum Sutherland 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2326% → 23%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
74.0%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
74.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+4
75.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 4 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
76.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3279% → 80%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
79.3%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-4
79.8%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+14
77.2%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Will Derrick for 14 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
80.2%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
79.8%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Will Derrick for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 11
50
0
78.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 11
50
0
80.3%
Devyn McCormick punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1224% → 20%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
76.5%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Zack Woodard for 0 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 12
OWN 15
0
77.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+2
78.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 2 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
79.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 53 yds, downed at the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:0283% → 83%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
83.4%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+1
83.1%
Jakyle Holmes run for 1 yd to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
82.2%
RODRIGUEZ, Rhett pass to the right incomplete intended for WILEY, Dariyan thrown to the ASU40. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on REIMONENQ, Jarius enforced 15 yards to the ULM45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
84.9%
Jakyle Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-1
84.3%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
83.1%
Rhett Rodriguez sacked by Joe Ozougwu and TW Ayers for 0 yards to the LaMon 40Similar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
83.1%
Devyn McCormick punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:5019% → 54%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
80.8%
Alan Lamar run for no gain to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+22
81.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 22 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
78.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 17 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
77.1%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
74.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
76.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+10
79.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Alan Lamar for 10 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
74.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Seydou Traore for no gain to the LaMon 20Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
46.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 20 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4559% → 55%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.5%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Boogie Knight for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
57.4%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
54.7%
Devyn McCormick punt for 45 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for no gain to the ArkSt 30 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (John Mincey) to the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5347% → 47%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
52.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 16 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
51.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
52.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 9 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-1
49.6%
Alan Lamar run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
52.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2059% → 55%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
58.9%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
58.8%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
57.7%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
55.2%
Devyn McCormick punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 31FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 2:4149% → 87%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
51.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+21
51.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 21 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
47.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
46.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+19
46.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 19 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
41.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
39.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+6
41.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
12.7%
Blake Grupe 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 32INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:5728% → 24%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
28.4%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Boogie Knight for 10 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
29.3%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
28.8%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
26.6%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+21
25.5%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Boogie Knight for 21 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
35.8%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
23.9%
Rhett Rodriguez pass intercepted return for no gain to the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:17
Blake Grupe 42 yd FG GOOD
-28.6
TD · Q4 7:56
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 20 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
-28.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-23.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com