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CARK

Central Arkansas 21 at Arkansas State 40

ARST
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:30 · Blake Grupe 47 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior+32.1Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:21: Alan Lamar 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick) — ARST win probability +10.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:53: Corey Rucker 34 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick) — ARST win probability +11.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:31: Lujuan Winningham 7 Yd pass from Breylin Smith (Hayden Ray Kick) — CARK win probability +16.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:44: Corey Rucker 8 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe PAT failed) — ARST win probability +9.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:17: Corey Rucker 33 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick) — ARST win probability +8.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8CARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:30ARST 4th & 2 at CARK 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.0%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:30CARK 4th & 9 at CARK 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:08ARST 4th & 15 at CARK 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:03CARK 4th & 2 at CARK 28, up 4
    Close callPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:34ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:41CARK 4th & 9 at CARK 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:53CARK 4th & 10 at ARST 36, up 4
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:23ARST 4th & 5 at CARK 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:53CARK 4th & 3 at CARK 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:30ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:20CARK 4th & 13 at CARK 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:14ARST 4th & 10 at CARK 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−5.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00CARK 4th & 9 at CARK 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:21CARK 4th & 6 at ARST 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:48CARK 4th & 10 at CARK 25, down 19
    Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:00ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 16, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5CARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:53CARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:21ARST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:53ARST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:31CARK Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:44ARST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:17ARST Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:33CARK Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:48ARST Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:3084% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.8%
Alan Lamar run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
83.8%
Alan Lamar run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
83.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Alan Lamar for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+5
83.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 5 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+5
83.8%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Defensive offside (Logan Jessup) to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+20
83.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 20 yds to the CArk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
83.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Alan Lamar for 6 yds to the CArk 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+3
83.8%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the CArk 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-1
83.8%
Alan Lamar run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 30Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+47
83.0%
Blake Grupe 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
82.8%
Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the CArk 31Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
82.8%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
82.9%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
82.9%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CArk 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
82.9%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 3 yds to the CArk 43Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
82.9%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 5 yds to the CArk 34 Johnnie Lang Jr. fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by CArk Deandre LamontSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 4TD
1 play · 66 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
81.0%
Christian Richmond 66 Yd pass from Breylin Smith (Hayden Ray Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:4581% → 80%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
81.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 49 yds to the CArk 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
81.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 7 yds to the CArk 19Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+3
81.7%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the CArk 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
81.7%
James Blackman sacked by Davon Wright and Logan Jessup for a loss of 5 yards to the CArk 21Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 15
OPP 21
0
81.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 15
OPP 21
0
81.3%
James Blackman run for no gain to the CArk 21 James Blackman fumbled, forced by Jalen Bedell, recovered by ArkStSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 15
OPP 21
+38
80.3%
Blake Grupe 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
80.5%
Darius Hale run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 18Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+10
80.6%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Mitchell Perkinson for 10 yds to the CArk 28Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
80.5%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+5
80.8%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 43 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 5 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
79.8%
Alan Lamar run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-5
80.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 13
OWN 31
0
79.7%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 13
OWN 31
+8
79.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 5
OWN 39
-5
79.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+54
79.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds , Tyler Hudson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 33 CENTRAL ARK Penalty, HL (Christian Richmond) to the CArk 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
79.0%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 13 yds to the CArk 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
79.0%
Darius Hale run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 22Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 12
OWN 22
0
79.1%
Breylin Smith run for no gain to the CArk 22Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+3
79.3%
Darius Hale run for 3 yds to the CArk 25Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
79.6%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0678% → 78%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
78.4%
James Blackman sacked by Logan Jessup for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+8
77.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 8 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
78.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
77.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Darius Hale at the CArk 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 58 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
77.2%
Cameron Myers run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 4Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 12
OWN 4
+1
77.3%
Cameron Myers run for 1 yd to the CArk 5Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+15
77.7%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Winningham, Luj ( Doss, Taylon), PENALTY ASU pass interference ( Blackwell, Den) 15 yards to the UCA20, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
77.0%
Cameron Myers run for 4 yds to the CArk 24Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
76.9%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 7 yds to the CArk 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+33
76.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 33 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
76.1%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
76.1%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
76.3%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
77.2%
Breylin Smith punt for 23 yds, downed at the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
75.0%
Alan Lamar run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 16
OWN 7
+24
74.9%
James Blackman run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
75.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
75.2%
James Blackman sacked by A'Javius Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+19
74.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 19 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
76.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 3 yds to the CArk 49Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+1
76.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 1 yd to the CArk 48Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+1
76.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 1 yd to the CArk 47Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
75.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds, downed at the CArk 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
72.1%
Darius Hale run for 5 yds to the CArk 8Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+7
72.3%
Darius Hale run for 7 yds to the CArk 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
71.9%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan Winningham, broken up by Jarius ReimonenqSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
72.0%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Christian Richmond for 3 yds to the CArk 18Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+4
72.6%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Christian Richmond for 4 yds to the CArk 22 CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Kylan Stribling) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+10
73.0%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 43 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 10 yds to the ArkSt 32 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
70.8%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
71.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 5 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
71.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
70.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyler Hudson at the CArk 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
69.5%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler Hudson, broken up by Taylon DossSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-3
69.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Christian Richmond for a loss of 3 yards to the CArk 11Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 13
OWN 11
0
70.5%
Darius Hale run for no gain to the CArk 11Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 13
OWN 11
0
71.2%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 55 yds, downed at the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 1:2669% → 73%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
68.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+19
68.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 19 yds to the CArk 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
71.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 23 yds to the CArk 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
73.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete, broken up by Cameron GodfreySimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
72.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Marcel Murray for no gain to the CArk 24Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
71.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
72.5%
Blake Grupe 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1130% → 31%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tobias Enlow for 3 yds to the CArk 28Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
69.6%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Christian Richmond for 1 yd to the CArk 29Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
68.6%
Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the CArk 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 9 yds to the CArk 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
67.0%
Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the CArk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
67.7%
Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the CArk 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
67.6%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
68.8%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler Hudson, broken up by Taylon DossSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+29
69.8%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 49 , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 29 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
12 plays · 51 yds · 4:2672% → 83%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
71.6%
James Blackman run for 7 yds to the CArk 44Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+6
72.1%
Alan Lamar run for 6 yds to the CArk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
72.1%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the CArk 35Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
73.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 2 yds to the CArk 33Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+10
71.8%
Blackman, James pass incomplete to Rucker, Corey, PENALTY UCA HL (Langham, Willie) 10 yards to the UCA23, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
73.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the CArk 16Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 3
OPP 16
0
73.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Cameron GodfreySimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+4
71.7%
Alan Lamar run for 4 yds to the CArk 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
73.1%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the CArk 9Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
73.1%
James Blackman run for no gain to the CArk 9Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+7
71.8%
Blackman, James pass incomplete to Brown, Jeffmar, PENALTY UCA pass interference (Wilson, TaMuari) 7 yards to the UCA2, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.6%
Alan Lamar 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.2%
Marshun Douglas run for 6 yds to the CArk 31Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
77.1%
Marshun Douglas run for 16 yds to the CArk 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
75.7%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Christian Richmond, broken up by Jarius ReimonenqSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
76.5%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
75.7%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Mitchell PerkinsonSimilar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
77.9%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 3:0480% → 93%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
79.6%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
79.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+10
78.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 10 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
80.0%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, personal foul (TaMuarion Wilson) to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
80.8%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 19 yds to the CArk 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
82.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Johnnie Lang Jr.Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
82.1%
Layne Hatcher run for 8 yds to the CArk 36Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
81.6%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 2 yds to the CArk 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
92.6%
Corey Rucker 34 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 21TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:1410% → 29%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+33
90.3%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 33 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
88.6%
Darius Hale run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 2
OPP 40
-11
88.3%
Breylin Smith sacked by Kivon Bennett for a loss of 11 yards to the CArk 49Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+43
90.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 43 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
87.6%
Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
70.6%
Lujuan Winningham 7 Yd pass from Breylin Smith (Hayden Ray Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:4182% → 94%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
82.3%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-10
82.5%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Hunt, Te'Vaila, PENALTY ASU HL ( Scott, Ivory) 10 yards to the ASU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+12
81.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+14
81.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 14 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+33
83.7%
Alan Lamar run for 33 yds to the CArk 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
85.0%
Alan Lamar run for 1 yd to the CArk 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+15
85.0%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Blackman, James (Page, Nathan), PENALTY UCA pass interference (Page, Nathan) 15 yards to the UCA12, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
85.0%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the CArk 8Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
94.1%
Corey Rucker 8 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-23
90.1%
Breylin Smith pass intercepted James Blackman return for 23 yds to the CArk 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
98.3%
Corey Rucker 33 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 25TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:383% → 8%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
96.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Marshun Douglas for 5 yds to the CArk 43Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+18
96.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 18 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
96.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 12 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
96.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Mitchell Perkinson for 4 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
96.2%
Darius Hale run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
96.5%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Mitchell Perkinson for 1 yd to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+5
96.5%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Winningham, Luj, PENALTY ASU offside defense (Bennett, Kivon) 5 yards to the ASU13, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
96.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+14
91.7%
Lujuan Winningham 14 Yd pass from Breylin Smith (Hayden Ray Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4594% → 99%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.1%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
94.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+40
94.6%
Marcel Murray run for 40 yds to the CArk 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
94.7%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the CArk 16Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-1
94.7%
Alan Lamar run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 17Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+9
94.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 9 yds to the CArk 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
94.7%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the CArk 5Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.3%
Te'Vailance Hunt 5 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Christian RichmondSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Christian RichmondSimilar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 64 yds, downed at the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:1899% → 99%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
99.2%
Alan Lamar run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+3
99.2%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
99.4%
Alan Lamar run for no gain to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+9
99.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 42 yds , Christian Richmond returns for 9 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 29INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.4%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Mitchell PerkinsonSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
99.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 10 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.3%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Mitchell PerkinsonSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-16
99.4%
Breylin Smith pass intercepted Elery Alexander return for 16 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:31
Lujuan Winningham 7 Yd pass from Breylin Smith (Hayden Ray Kick)
-16.9
TD · Q3 2:53
Corey Rucker 34 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)
+11
TD · Q3 8:21
Alan Lamar 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)
+10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com