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MEM

Memphis 55 at Arkansas State 50

ARST
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.7ARST 29.4%Blake Grupe 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 23 - HOME 10 · Q2 7:48
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:48 · Blake Grupe 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Home team on offense−7.4Pregame prior−9.9Score differential−3.2Garbage-time factor−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:30: Layne Hatcher run for 12 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +12.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:43: Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 50 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK) — MEM win probability +11.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:09: James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 23 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +15.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:47: Marquavius Weaver 4 Yd Run (Joe Doyle Kick) — MEM win probability +12.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:52: James Blackman pass complete to Akeem Hayes for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +24.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 9:21ARST 4th & 5 at MEM 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:28ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 27, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:02ARST 4th & 9 at MEM 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:11MEM 4th & 13 at ARST 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:51ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:48ARST 4th & 7 at MEM 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:14MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 35, up 13
    Close callPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:14MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 35, up 13
    Close callPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:23ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 19, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:45ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:15MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:02ARST 4th & 21 at ARST 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−3.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:44ARST 4th & 7 at MEM 40, down 18
    Close callPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−1.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:32MEM 4th & 23 at MEM 24, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−3.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:33ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 44, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:48MEM 4th & 4 at ARST 45, up 12
    Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−1.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:53MEM 4th & 3 at ARST 37, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−0.6
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:20MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:11MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:30ARST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:05MEM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:30ARST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:20MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:43MEM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:09ARST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:47MEM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:54ARST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:39MEM Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:52ARST Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2165% → 65%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
34.8%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q1 14:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
34.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 11 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
35.0%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
35.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 3 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+55
34.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 55 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:3835% → 35%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
34.8%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+1
34.8%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+6
34.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
34.9%
Alan Lamar run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+13
35.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 13 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
35.3%
Alan Lamar run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+2
35.1%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+5
35.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 5 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
35.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 3:0165% → 68%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
35.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+9
34.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 9 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
34.7%
PENALTY MEM False Start (Ellis,Isaac) 5 yards from MEM21 to MEM16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+6
34.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 6 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
34.8%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+13
35.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 13 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
34.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
34.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Koby DrakeSimilar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
34.8%
(07:33) Henigan,Seth pass incomplete to Lewis,Eddie PENALTY ASU Personal Foul (Bennett,Kivon) 15 yards from MEM35 to MEM50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
50
+5
34.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+12
33.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
33.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 8 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+8
33.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
32.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 17 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle PAT MISSED)Similar
Q1 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
32.0%
PENALTY MEM False Start (Cartwright,John) 5 yards from ASU03 to ASU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:2534% → 37%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
33.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Emmanuel StevensonSimilar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-6
33.7%
Layne Hatcher sacked by John Cartwright for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+21
33.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Alan Lamar for 21 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
37.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 53 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1364% → 68%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+70
31.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 70 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2534% → 32%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
33.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
33.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
31.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
31.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1334% → 33%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
33.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
33.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-10
32.7%
(03:08) Hatcher,Layne rush for 11 yards gain to the MEM20, out of bounds PENALTY ASU Holding (Scott,Ivory) 10 yards from MEM31 to MEM41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 20
OPP 41
+11
32.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 11 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
32.9%
Blake Grupe 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8FG
16 plays · 59 yds · 4:2967% → 70%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
33.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+6
33.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+2
33.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
33.0%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+18
33.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
32.6%
Seth Henigan sacked by Vidal Scott for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 16
OWN 49
-10
33.1%
(15:00) Henigan,Seth pass complete to Dykes,Sean for 16 yards to the ASU35 (Motley,Dane; Bonner,Caleb) PENALTY MEM Holding (Gambill,Jonah) 10 yards from MEM49 to MEM39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 26
OWN 39
+29
33.1%
Marquavius Weaver run for 29 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
32.3%
Marquavius Weaver run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+22
32.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 22 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
32.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
32.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 13
OPP 14
0
32.5%
(12:41) Henigan,Seth pass complete to Thomas,Brandon for 0 yards to the ASU14 (Switzer,Anthony) PENALTY ASU Illegal Use Of Hands offsetting MEM Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 13
OPP 14
0
32.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+32
29.8%
Joe Doyle 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0531% → 30%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
30.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
30.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
30.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Alan LamarSimilar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
29.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5632% → 29%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
31.5%
(10:48) Lang,Johnnie rush for 0 yards to the MEM37 (Ducksworth,Wardalis) PENALTY ASU Holding (Scott,Ivory) 10 yards from MEM37 to MEM47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+12
31.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+12
31.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 12 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
31.9%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+1
31.8%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 8
OPP 21
-5
30.7%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Holmes,Robert) 5 yards from MEM21 to MEM26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+6
30.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Alan Lamar for 6 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
29.4%
Blake Grupe 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:1772% → 72%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
28.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
28.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
28.5%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
27.7%
Joe Doyle punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
27.7%
Joe Doyle punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4727% → 26%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
26.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
26.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+2
26.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Alan Lamar for 2 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
25.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:1375% → 77%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
25.3%
PENALTY MEM False Start (Thomas,Brandon) 5 yards from ASU45 to ASU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 15
50
+10
25.6%
(05:22) Henigan,Seth pass incomplete to Austin III,Calvin QB hurried by Bennett,Kivon PENALTY ASU Holding (Doss,Taylon) 10 yards from ASU50 to ASU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
22.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 40 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2924% → 36%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
24.0%
Corey Rucker run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
24.5%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
24.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+6
24.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
25.0%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for no gain to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+32
24.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 32 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
25.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+2
25.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+3
24.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 3 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
36.3%
Layne Hatcher run for 12 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
21.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 75 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 1:0922% → 28%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
22.1%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+3
22.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 3 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+6
21.9%
Layne Hatcher run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
22.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 21 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
23.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 11 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
24.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
24.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 10 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
24.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
23.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Alan Lamar for 6 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+34
27.6%
Blake Grupe 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0627% → 26%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
26.7%
Alan Lamar run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
27.3%
Alan Lamar run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
28.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
27.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
26.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1973% → 73%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
26.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 12 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
26.5%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Memph 23Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
26.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Gabriel RogersSimilar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+5
26.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
27.0%
Joe Doyle punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0126% → 22%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+18
25.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
26.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+1
27.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 1 yd to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-15
24.5%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Jaylon Allen for a loss of 15 yards to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 21
OWN 23
0
22.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:0476% → 89%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
23.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 8 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+2
22.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
22.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 7
50
+50
11.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 50 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:3314% → 14%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
13.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 16 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
14.7%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-5
13.8%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Holmes,Robert) 5 yards from ASU43 to ASU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+19
13.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 19 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
14.5%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+5
13.8%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 5 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
13.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
13.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:5491% → 93%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
9.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for no gain to the Memph 12Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+25
9.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 25 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
8.2%
Seth Henigan sacked by Joe Ozougwu for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 28 Seth Henigan fumbled, recovered by Memph Jonah Gambill , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+1
8.6%
Marquavius Weaver run for 1 yd to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 18
OWN 29
-5
7.3%
Seth Henigan sacked by Elery Alexander for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 24Similar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 23
OWN 24
0
6.9%
Joe Doyle punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:1010% → 25%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
10.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+6
10.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+46
9.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 46 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
24.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 23 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 4:1480% → 96%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
20.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 7 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
18.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+6
18.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
17.2%
Seth Henigan sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+2
18.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 2 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 16
OWN 37
+37
18.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 37 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
16.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
16.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+19
16.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 19 yds to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
16.4%
Marquavius Weaver run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.0%
Marquavius Weaver 4 Yd Run (Joe Doyle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25TD
3 plays · 91 yds · 0:325% → 20%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
4.8%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+89
15.2%
Jeff Foreman 89 Yd pass from James Blackman (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 10:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
19.8%
Blackman,James pass attempt Failed PENALTY ASU Illegal Forward Pass (Blackman,James) 5 yards from MEM03 to ASU35. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0989% → 97%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.8%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
3.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 75 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27TD
18 plays · 73 yds · 5:305% → 12%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
4.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
4.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+5
4.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 5 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
4.6%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
9.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 21 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
12.8%
Alan Lamar run for 4 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
13.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 2 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+7
11.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 7 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+12
11.3%
(05:01) Blackman,James pass incomplete to Hunt,Te'Vailance PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (Johnson,Quindell) 12 yards from MEM23 to MEM11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.7%
Adam Jones 1 Yd pass from James Blackman (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
12.9%
James Blackman run for 6 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
12.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Emmanuel StevensonSimilar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+5
10.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 5 yds to the Memph 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
11.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
11.8%
(04:03) Blackman,James pass incomplete to Foreman,Jeff PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (Francis,Jacobi) 6 yards from MEM08 to MEM02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
12.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
12.1%
Alan Lamar run for 1 yd to the Memph 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0895% → 95%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
5.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
5.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
5.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Illegal Touch-Pass (Thomas Pickens) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
5.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 1:515% → 31%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
5.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+3
5.3%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+15
4.9%
(03:20) Blackman,James pass incomplete to Foreman,Jeff broken up by Francis,Jacobi PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (Francis,Jacobi) 15 yards from ASU16 to ASU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
5.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 10 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
6.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 14 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
6.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 20 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
8.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
7.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+20
6.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Akeem Hayes for 20 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
7.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
31.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Akeem Hayes for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:4493% → 94%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
7.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
5.7%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+6
5.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
6.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 31END OF GAME
5 plays · 40 yds · 0:3710% → 11%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+11
10.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 11 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
9.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 12 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
9.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 8 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+9
10.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Joe Ozougwu for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
10.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:52
James Blackman pass complete to Akeem Hayes for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
+24.2
TD · Q3 1:09
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 23 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
+15
TD · Q4 11:47
Marquavius Weaver 4 Yd Run (Joe Doyle Kick)
-12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com