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TXST

Texas State 24 at Arkansas State 22

ARST
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:40 · Ryan Hanson punt for 46 yds , Rontavious Groves returns for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Home team on offense−3.7Pregame prior+5.0Garbage-time factor−0.9Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 3:09: Seth Keller 46 Yd Field Goal — TXST win probability +4.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 10:43: Blake Grupe 22 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +6.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:06: Calvin Hill run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +14.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:12: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 26 yds for a TD — ARST win probability +30.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 2:12: Timeout TEXAS STATE, clock 02:12 — ARST win probability +8.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 10 of 14TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:25TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:25TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:37ARST 4th & 8 at TXST 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:26ARST 4th & 6 at TXST 6, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−6.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:56TXST 4th & 9 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:03TXST 4th & 7 at ARST 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:41ARST 4th & 7 at TXST 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:41ARST 4th & 7 at TXST 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q1 0:10TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 33, up 4
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q1 0:10TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 33, up 4
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q1 13:57ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  12. Q1 13:57ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  13. Q2 4:40ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−4.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  14. Q2 3:09TXST 4th & 5 at ARST 29, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−4.8
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:15ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:43ARST 4th & 5 at TXST 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−11.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:53ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−2.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:33TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−3.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:17ARST 4th & 5 at TXST 5, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.7%−0.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−7.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:42TXST 4th & 5 at ARST 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:17ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:18TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:12ARST 4th & 7 at TXST 26, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−4.8
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:55TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 37, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−10.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  25. Q4 0:03ARST 4th & 2 at TXST 31, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−18.9
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−36.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:38TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:06TXST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1741% → 43%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jackson Lanam for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
58.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 11 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
58.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+10
58.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 1
50
+4
58.7%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
58.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
58.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+23
58.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
58.3%
VITT, Tyler pass up the middle incomplete dropped by BARBEE, Marcell thrown to the ASU1. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on JONES, Leon enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the ASU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2542% → 42%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
58.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
58.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+5
58.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offsides (Kivon Bennett) to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
58.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
58.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for no gain to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
58.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for no gain to the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3FG
16 plays · 81 yds · 19:4658% → 55%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
58.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+15
58.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 15 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
58.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 24 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
58.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
58.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
58.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for no gain to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 3
OPP 32
-5
57.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Jacob Still) to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+13
57.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
58.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
57.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+9
57.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 9 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
57.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
57.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
57.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
55.4%
Blake Grupe 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:5458% → 59%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
58.2%
Alan Lamar run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+13
58.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Seydou Traore for 13 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
58.5%
Alan Lamar run for 9 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+9
58.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 9 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
58.6%
L. Hatcher pass,to D. Green for 39 yds for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:0942% → 43%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
57.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 12 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
57.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 11 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
56.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
57.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+3
57.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 9
50
0
57.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:0543% → 44%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
57.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 24 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
56.8%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
56.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
56.8%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 7
OPP 40
+9
57.1%
Sione Tupou pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 9 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
56.0%
T. Vitt pass,to T. Graham Jr. for 31 yds for a TD, (S. Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:5057% → 57%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
57.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
57.0%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+18
56.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Adam Jones for 18 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
58.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 14 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
58.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 10 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
58.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Makilan Thomas) to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+2
58.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+6
58.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
57.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
56.9%
Blake Grupe 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
56.9%
Blake Grupe 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1444% → 44%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
56.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+13
56.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 13 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
55.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
56.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
56.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 14:4959% → 56%
Q1 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
58.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+3
58.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
58.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds, downed at the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
58.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds, downed at the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
56.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1052% → 50%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
51.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+1
51.3%
Alan Lamar run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 9
OWN 8
0
50.1%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Nicholas McCann and Sione Tupou for 0 yards to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 16
OWN 1
+3
49.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 46 yds , Rontavious Groves returns for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:3151% → 58%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
48.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
47.8%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
47.2%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
47.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+46
42.3%
Seth Keller 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4845% → 44%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
44.9%
LANG, Johnnie rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the ASU26 (REVELS, Jordan). PENALTY ASU Holding on HARRIS, JR., Andre enforced 10 yards from the ASU25 to the ASU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
44.2%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+13
43.5%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
44.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
44.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 18
OWN 28
+17
41.8%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
44.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
41.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:0944% → 51%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.8%
Alan Lamar run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
43.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 8 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
43.7%
Alan Lamar run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+8
43.6%
Layne Hatcher run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
44.5%
Alan Lamar run for 25 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
47.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Zion Childress) to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
47.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
46.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
45.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
51.3%
Blake Grupe 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:1252% → 72%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-15
48.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Block below the waist on HAWKINS, Ashtyn enforced (Ashtyn Hawkins) to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
43.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+7
43.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for 7 yds to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
43.0%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
42.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
28.4%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3631% → 27%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
31.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
31.2%
Layne Hatcher sacked by London Harris for 0 yards to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 14
OWN 23
-3
28.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 17
OWN 20
0
27.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 67 yds, downed at the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:1271% → 72%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
29.5%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Kivon Bennett and Joe Ozougwu for 0 yards to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+7
29.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+12
28.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 12 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
27.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 28
-1
27.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
27.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
28.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 yds, downed at the ArkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 5:0428% → 27%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
27.6%
Alan Lamar run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+17
27.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 17 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
28.4%
Alan Lamar run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
29.6%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
27.5%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
29.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+20
27.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Seydou Traore for 20 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
27.5%
Wyatt Begeal run for 7 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
27.2%
Alan Lamar run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
24.9%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Brayden Stringer and Nicholas McCann for 0 yards to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
26.9%
Blake Grupe 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:1380% → 82%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
20.2%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
18.8%
Calvin Hill run for 8 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
18.2%
VITT, Tyler pass to the left incomplete intended for HAWKINS, Ashtyn broken up by JONES, Leon at the ASU27. PENALTY TXS Pass Interference on HAWKINS, Ashtyn enforced 15 yards to the TXS31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+7
20.7%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+11
18.6%
Calvin Hill run for 11 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+2
16.7%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
18.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0822% → 17%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
21.6%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
20.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
18.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
16.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 36 yds , returns for no gain to the TexSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3589% → 88%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
11.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
11.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
11.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
12.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:3916% → 44%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
15.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Alan Lamar for 3 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
15.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Alan Lamar for 4 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+16
13.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 16 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
15.7%
Alan Lamar run for 34 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
21.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
20.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 3 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
13.3%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Jared Hopper for 0 yards to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+26
44.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 26 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:0079% → 81%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
20.8%
Tyler Vitt run for 9 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-5
17.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Dalton Cooper) to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
17.6%
Tyler Vitt run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-10
14.4%
QB Keeper VITT, Tyler rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the TXS48 (ALEXANDER, Elery). PENALTY TXS Holding on COOPER, Dalton enforced 10 yards from the TXS47 to the TXS37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 12
OWN 37
0
17.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 12
OWN 37
+6
18.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 6 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24MISSED FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:4634% → 24%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
34.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 14 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
39.4%
Layne Hatcher run for 10 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
35.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
34.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 9 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 1
OPP 30
-1
30.3%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+48
23.7%
Blake Grupe 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:12
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 26 yds for a TD
+30.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-23.7
TD · Q3 8:06
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
-14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com