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UL

Louisiana 28 at Arkansas State 27

ARST
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2021 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:05 · Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior−36.8Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:19: Montrell Johnson run for 99 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +10.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:07: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 76 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +11.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:35: Montrell Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +10.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:05: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +13.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:37: Chris Smith run for 74 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +19.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:04UL 4th & 1 at UL 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:05ARST 4th & 1 at UL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:27UL 4th & 1 at ARST 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    81.2%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:30ARST 4th & 14 at UL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:22UL 4th & 9 at UL 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:21ARST 4th & 9 at UL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:56ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−3.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:23ARST 4th & 9 at UL 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−10.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:11ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−2.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:22UL 4th & 4 at UL 39, up 1
    Close callPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:26ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−5.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:55UL 4th & 1 at ARST 7, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−13.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−43.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 5:38ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:19UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:28UL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:07ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:35UL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:05ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:37UL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5188% → 87%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
11.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 9 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-1
12.2%
Chris Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
12.4%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
12.8%
Rhys Byrns punt for 51 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:5513% → 14%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
12.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
13.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
13.2%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE roughing passer (McCaskill, Lorenzo) 15 yards to the ARST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARST.Similar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
13.6%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
13.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+11
13.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-1
14.2%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 49 yds · 5:3186% → 84%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
50
0
13.8%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae FlemingSimilar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
50
+11
14.1%
Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
14.1%
Emani Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+11
14.4%
Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
14.4%
Emani Bailey run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+6
14.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 6 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
14.8%
Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+10
15.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 10 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
15.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Michael JeffersonSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
15.3%
Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.8%
Montrell Johnson run for no gain to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q1 4:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:4817% → 18%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
16.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+36
17.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 36 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
18.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+20
18.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 20 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
19.0%
Pare, Lincoln rush for 14 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE25, PENALTY ARST holding (Still, Jacob) 10 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 20
OPP 49
0
18.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Lincoln PareSimilar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+6
18.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 6 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 14
OPP 43
0
18.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jack CombsSimilar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
18.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:5382% → 78%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
18.4%
Chris Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 6Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+14
18.9%
Chris Smith run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
19.0%
Chris Smith run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
18.8%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
19.3%
Levi Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 29 Levi Lewis fumbled, forced by Kivon Bennett, recovered by LaLaf Max MitchellSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+5
19.9%
Fields, Chandler pass incomplete, PENALTY ARST offside (Bennett, Kivon) 5 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+9
19.5%
Levi Lewis run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
19.1%
Levi Lewis sacked by Joe Ozougwu for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+4
20.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chris Smith for 4 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+3
20.8%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 9
OWN 44
-2
21.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 48 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
13 plays · 94 yds · 5:3822% → 37%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
21.7%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+6
21.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 6 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+12
21.7%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Mekhi Garner) to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
23.3%
Alan Lamar run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+2
24.3%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
24.5%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
25.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Emmanuel StevensonSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+13
25.5%
Layne Hatcher run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
26.4%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
26.9%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+26
27.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 26 yds to the LaLaf 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
28.4%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 6Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
36.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
2 plays · 99 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+99
24.3%
Montrell Johnson run for 99 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 2:3927% → 32%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
26.5%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
27.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+7
26.0%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Rucker, Corey, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE pass interference (Washington, AJ) 7 yards to the ARST31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARST.Similar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
27.3%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
28.8%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for no gain to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+28
27.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 28 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
30.8%
Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Lorenzo McCaskill) to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
31.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
31.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+1
30.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 1 yd to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
32.0%
Blake Grupe 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 1:3968% → 80%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
31.7%
Chris Smith run for 36 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
29.0%
Chris Smith run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+7
28.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 7 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
28.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
28.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kaleb CarterSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+14
29.9%
Chris Smith run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
28.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 5 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+5
28.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 5 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.8%
Chris Smith run for 6 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10END OF HALF
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:1524% → 24%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
23.8%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
22.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 19 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
24.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:4824% → 36%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
24.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+76
36.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 76 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1765% → 79%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.0%
Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+39
34.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 39 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
31.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 8 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+21
31.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 21 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.5%
Montrell Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:3125% → 24%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.2%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
24.6%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Ferrod Gardner for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+6
24.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 54 yds , Eric Garror returns for 6 yds to the LaLaf 36 Eric Garror fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Eric GarrorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:4776% → 76%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
24.5%
Chris Smith run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
23.8%
Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49 Chris Smith fumbled, forced by Taylon Doss, recovered by ArkSt Justin ParksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:4530% → 46%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+36
29.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 36 yds to the LaLaf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
32.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for no gain to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
46.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16INT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:1260% → 61%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
39.7%
Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
39.8%
Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Fleming, Dontae, PENALTY ARST offside (Ozougwu, Joe) 5 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+3
38.5%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
39.2%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
39.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (John Mincey) to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
38.4%
Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
38.8%
Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
50
+5
38.6%
Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-35
39.5%
Levi Lewis pass intercepted Kenneth Harris return for 35 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:0751% → 57%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
50.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
51.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+10
49.3%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Foreman, Jeff, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE holding (Moncrief, Kris) 10 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARST.Similar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-15
51.4%
Hatcher, Layne pass complete to Foreman, Jeff for 10 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE9, PENALTY ARST pass interference (Traore, Seydou) 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 25
OPP 34
+11
50.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+5
50.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
51.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
56.7%
Blake Grupe 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:3147% → 67%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
52.7%
Chris Smith run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+74
33.5%
Chris Smith run for 74 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:0836% → 34%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
36.1%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
35.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+7
33.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
36.2%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
36.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-1
34.5%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
33.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds, downed at the LaLaf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4365% → 64%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
35.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae FlemingSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
34.6%
Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+2
34.7%
Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+2
36.4%
Rhys Byrns punt for 52 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 41 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the ArkSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:3437% → 36%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
36.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+9
36.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
37.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
37.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+15
35.5%
Hatcher, Layne pass sacked for loss of 9 yards to the ARST9 (Moncrief, Kris), PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE illegal use of hands (Jones, Andre) 15 yards to the ARST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARST.Similar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
38.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+8
42.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
43.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-2
40.8%
Alan Lamar run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 44 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andre Harris Jr.) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-7
38.3%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Chauncey Manac for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 19
OWN 37
0
36.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 57 yds, downed at the LaLaf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22END OF GAME
26 plays · 90 yds · 9:5762% → 95%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
38.2%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 9
-5
38.8%
Smith, Chris rush for 6 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE15, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE holding (Lumpkin, Johnny) 5 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 12
OWN 4
+6
39.1%
Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Stephens Jr., John, PENALTY ARST offside 6 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+5
38.7%
Chris Smith run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+2
40.2%
Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
36.8%
Chris Smith run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
36.4%
Chris Smith run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
34.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 8 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
31.8%
Montrell Johnson run for no gain to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+4
32.3%
Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
31.5%
Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+5
32.9%
Levi Lewis run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+7
32.5%
Montrell Johnson run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
31.7%
Montrell Johnson run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+4
28.4%
Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
28.2%
Chris Smith run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
28.2%
Chris Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+8
26.3%
Chris Smith run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+4
26.1%
Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+5
25.3%
Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
15.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:37
Chris Smith run for 74 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)
-19.2
TD · Q3 9:05
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q3 14:07
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 76 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com