Arkansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0528th
  Defense+0.1624th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.0%48th
  Defense43.4%33rd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.146th
  Defense+1.2928th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.075th
  Defense+0.1036th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1851st
  Defense+0.2722nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.8%49th
  Defense48.4%37th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense28.4%37th
  Defense32.1%29th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6513th
  Defense2.7568th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.3%19th
  Defense19.3%53rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.8%18th
  Defense15.5%47th

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arkansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SEMO
2. L
   ARK
3. L
   ISU
4. L
   KENN
5. L
   ULM
6. W
   TXST
7. W
   USA
8. W
   GASO
9. W
   TROY
10. L
    USM
11. L
    UL
12. W
    APP
13. W
    MOST

Bars above the line: better than expected for Arkansas State.

Players, 2025

1. Jaylen RaynorQB574 plays · +0.157 pts/play · 26th of 231 QBs
   1.68WAR0.82 to 2.62
2. Corey RuckerWR117 plays · +0.280 pts/play · 1st of 451 WRs
   0.61WAR0.39 to 0.84
3. Kenyon ClayRB142 plays · +0.090 pts/play · 84th of 365 RBs
   0.24WAR0.15 to 0.34
4. Devin SpencerRB129 plays · +0.079 pts/play · 118th of 365 RBs
   0.19WAR0.11 to 0.28
5. Chauncy CobbWR81 plays · +0.111 pts/play · 94th of 451 WRs
   0.17WAR−0.01 to 0.33
6. Jackson WallerP52 plays · +0.156 pts/play · 2nd of 100 punters
   0.15WAR0.04 to 0.27
7. Hunter SummersWR74 plays · +0.063 pts/play · 208th of 451 WRs
   0.09WAR−0.08 to 0.23
8. Tyler FortenberryTE34 plays · +0.116 pts/play · 53rd of 213 TEs
   0.07WAR−0.01 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Arkansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  59159188th of 134Roster talent: 591, 88th of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16916974th of 134Recruiting: 169, 74th of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  59%59%26th of 132Returning production: 59%, 26th of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −8.8−8.898th of 134SP+ rating: −8.8, 98th of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arkansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 10 clear-cut ones account for 0.44 of the 0.51 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ULMQ4 1:20 4th & 8 at ULM 8, down 2Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−19.1 pts
2. at ULMQ4 2:22 4th & 4 at ULM 12, down 2Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−12.9 pts
3. at KENNQ4 2:36 4th & 2 at ARST 15, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.0 pts
4. vs ULQ4 4:17 4th & 8 at ARST 40, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. at USAQ2 4:36 4th & 1 at USA 49, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
6. at TROYQ4 3:38 4th & 3 at TROY 35, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
7. vs ULQ4 6:40 4th & 6 at UL 6, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
8. vs USMQ3 12:05 4th & 1 at ARST 36, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

38th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Arkansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SEMO
2. L

   ARK
3. L

   ISU
4. L

   KENN
5. L

   ULM
6. W

   TXST
7. W

   USA
8. W

   GASO
9. W

   TROY
10. L

    USM
11. L

    UL
12. W

    APP
13. W

    MOST

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Arkansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.53
• Possession & field position+0.07
• Clock+0.02
• Timeouts+0.64
• Other+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.17

Game by game

• SEMOW 42-24 vs SEMO89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts −4
• ARKL 14-56 at ARK7% → 0%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −9
• ISUL 16-24 vs ISU8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −11, Timeouts −3
• KENNL 21-28 at KENN71% → 14%Before kickoff +21 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −70, Timeouts +41
• ULML 16-28 at ULM49% → 30%Before kickoff −1 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −53, Timeouts +42
• TXSTW 31-30 vs TXST21% → 75%Before kickoff −29 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +60, Timeouts −44
• USAW 15-14 at USA33% → 99%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +66: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +22
• GASOW 34-24 vs GASO51% → 97%Before kickoff +1 · On the field +47: Scoreboard +37, Possession & field position +1
• TROYW 23-10 at TROY34% → 98%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +58, Clock +3
• USML 21-27 vs USM40% → 20%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −39, Possession & field position +4
• ULL 30-34 vs UL62% → 22%Before kickoff +12 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −39, Possession & field position +5
• APPW 30-29 at APP59% → 78%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +31, Timeouts +7
• MOSTW 34-28 vs MOST61% → 97%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Arkansas State's side.

Closest call

ARST 30-29 APP (2025) - Arkansas State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.