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ISU

Iowa State 24 at Arkansas State 16

ARST
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:34 · Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the ISU 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factor
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior−30.8Home team on offense−2.3Offense timeouts−10.9Defense timeouts−12.1Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:42: Rocco Becht run for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy PAT MISSED) — ARST win probability +1.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. FG · Q2 13:11: Clune Van Andel 45 Yd Field Goal — ARST win probability +0.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q2 0:39: Jaylen Raynor 3 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick) — ARST win probability +2.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · Q2 0:11: Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for no gain to the ISU 35 — ISU win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:40: Tyler Perkins punt for 42 yds — ISU win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 14:43ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:21ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:07ISU 4th & 6 at ARST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:37ARST 4th & 9 at ISU 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:11ARST 4th & 5 at ISU 27, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:52ISU 4th & 5 at ARST 30, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:24ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:34ARST 4th & 1 at ISU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−1.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:08ARST 4th & 6 at ISU 18, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−4.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:25ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 29, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:09ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 38, down 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:53ARST 4th & 23 at ISU 23, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−4.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:40ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 7, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:52ARST 4th & 5 at ISU 23, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:42ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1792% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett EskildsenSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Xavier TownsendSimilar
Q1 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Carson Hansen Iowa State Penalty, Offensive holding (Dylan Barrett) to the ISU 25Similar
Q1 14:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Tyler Perkins punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:138% → 8%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
8.4%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
8.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
8.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy Cobb, broken up by Jamison PattonSimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 4
OWN 37
-5
8.3%
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Jordan Smart) to the ARST 32Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
8.3%
Jackson Waller punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:0692% → 92%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
8.3%
Carson Hansen run for 7 yds to the ISU 32Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
8.2%
Carson Hansen run for 6 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
8.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 11 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
8.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Cooper Alexander for 14 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
8.1%
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 40Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+13
8.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 13 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
8.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Abu Sama IIISimilar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
8.0%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
8.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Cooper Alexander, broken up by Nigel NelsonSimilar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+41
8.0%
Kyle Konrardy 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:208% → 8%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
7.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
7.9%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the ARST 27Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+34
7.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 34 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
8.1%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the ISU 38Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
8.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Jontez WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
7.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Nana BurrisSimilar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
7.7%
Jackson Waller punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 3:4892% → 91%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
8.1%
Carson Hansen run for 10 yds to the ISU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+31
8.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Tyler Moore for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
50
+7
7.7%
Carson Hansen run for 7 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+38
7.6%
Carson Hansen run for 38 yds to the ARST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
7.6%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ARST 2Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-8
7.6%
Rocco Becht sacked by Ethan Hassler for a loss of 8 yards to the ARST 10Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
8.8%
Rocco Becht run for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:167% → 7%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
6.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 6 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
6.5%
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the ARST 26Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+26
6.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 26 yds to the ISU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
6.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 16 yds to the ISU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
6.8%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jace J. Gilbert for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 35 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 13
OPP 35
-1
6.8%
Devin Spencer run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 36Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+9
6.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 9 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
7.1%
Clune Van Andel 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 4:1893% → 92%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.4%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the ISU 26Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+27
7.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Tyler Moore for 27 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
7.0%
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+10
6.9%
Abu Sama III run for 10 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
7.0%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
6.9%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-2
7.2%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 30Similar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
7.7%
Kyle Konrardy 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
18 plays · 70 yds · 8:127% → 9%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
7.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 25Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
7.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen BonelliSimilar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+6
7.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 6 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+15
7.0%
Jackson Waller punt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
7.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
8.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 5 yds to the ISU 46Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+2
7.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
8.1%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the ISU 44Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
8.0%
Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+6
8.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ISU 35Similar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
8.1%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the ISU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
8.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 9 yds to the ISU 25Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+8
9.5%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the ISU 22 fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor for a 1ST down Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ISU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
6.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ISU 17Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+2
5.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ISU 15Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+12
5.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 12 yds to the ISU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
6.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter SummersSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
9.0%
Jaylen Raynor 3 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:2796% → 98%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
3.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 14 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
3.5%
Rocco Becht sacked by Bryan Whitehead and Terry Kirksey for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 38Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+35
3.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 35 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
3.5%
Dominic Overby 27 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Rocco Becht Pass to Carson Hansen for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
2.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for no gain to the ISU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
3.1%
Devin Spencer run for 12 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 5:475% → 6%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
5.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy Cobb, broken up by Will McLaughlinSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
5.3%
Devin Spencer run for no gain to the ARST 32Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+11
5.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 11 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
5.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
5.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for no gain to the ARST 43 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Corey Rucker) to the ARST 33Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+8
4.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 8 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+11
4.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 21 yds to the ISU 38 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Chauncy Cobb) to the ISU 48Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+15
4.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 15 yds to the ISU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
5.5%
Devin Spencer run for 6 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+5
5.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ISU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
6.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the ISU 18Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
6.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jordan SmartSimilar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
5.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter SummersSimilar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+36
5.6%
Clune Van Andel 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4196% → 97%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.9%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett Eskildsen, broken up by AG McGheeSimilar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.9%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
3.3%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase Sowell, broken up by Malik McConicoSimilar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+14
3.3%
Tyler Perkins punt for 56 yds , Kyle Taylor returns for 14 yds to the ARST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:054% → 3%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
4.4%
Devin Spencer run for 1 yd to the ARST 30Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-3
4.2%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Cam Smith and Alijah Carnell for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 27Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+11
5.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Nana Burris for 11 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q3 6:09
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
2.7%
Jackson Waller punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14INT
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:3997% → 97%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+44
2.9%
Abu Sama III run for 44 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
2.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Abu Sama III for 5 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
2.4%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
2.9%
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the ARST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
2.6%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 27Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
2.6%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Tyler MooreSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 12
OPP 27
0
2.7%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Benjamin Brahmer, broken up by AG McGheeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
18 plays · 85 yds · 6:262% → 2%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
1.7%
Devin Spencer run for no gain to the ARST 15 Arkansas State Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the ARST 10Similar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+13
1.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 13 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 2
OWN 23
-10
1.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ARST 23 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Devin Spencer) to the ARST 13Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+12
1.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 12 yds to the ARST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
1.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 10 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
1.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-2
1.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 39Similar
Q3 0:12
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+12
1.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 12 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
1.7%
Devin Spencer run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 11
50
+15
1.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 15 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-7
1.7%
Jaylen Raynor sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ISU 42 Arkansas State Penalty, intentional grounding (Jaylen Raynor) to the ISU 42Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+35
1.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 35 yds to the ISU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Jeremiah CooperSimilar
Q4 12:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
2.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ISU 2Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
1.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for no gain to the ISU 2 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Jaylen Bonelli) to the ISU 17Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
-9
1.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Wil Saxton) to the ISU 26Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 26
+3
1.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 3 yds to the ISU 23Similar
Q4 11:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 23
+40
1.6%
Clune Van Andel 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1798% → 98%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 4 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
2.4%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ISU 32Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
2.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 3 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
2.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 6 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+44
2.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 44 yds to the ARST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
2.3%
Carson Hansen run for 6 yds to the ARST 9Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-10
2.3%
Abu Sama III run for no gain Iowa State Penalty, Offensive holding (James Neal III) to the ARST 19Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+15
2.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett Eskildsen for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Trenton Alan Yowe) to the ARST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.1%
Abu Sama III 4 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:281% → 1%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
1.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 10 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Tre Bell return for no gain to the ISU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 92 yds · 1:1097% → 98%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
2.7%
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ISU 13Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 13
-6
3.3%
Abu Sama III run for no gain Iowa State Penalty, Offensive holding (Cooper Alexander) to the ISU 7Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 11
OWN 7
0
4.2%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Dominic Overby, broken up by Trenton Alan YoweSimilar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 11
OWN 7
0
4.3%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 11
OWN 7
0
2.3%
Tyler Perkins punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:410% → 0%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
0.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 8 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+2
0.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
0.4%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+5
0.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
0.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen BonelliSimilar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
0.5%
Devin Spencer run for 5 yds to the ISU 23Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
0.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 5
OPP 23
0
0.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen BonelliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20Uncategorized
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:2899% → 100%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
1.1%
Carson Hansen run for 13 yds to the ISU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
1.0%
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
1.0%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the ISU 45Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
0.3%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the ISU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
0.3%
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the ISU 48Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
0.3%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+31
0.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 31 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
0.3%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 19Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-1
0.3%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:39
Jaylen Raynor 3 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)
+2.9
TD · Q4 6:40
Tyler Perkins punt for 42 yds
-2
TD · Q1 2:42
Rocco Becht run for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy PAT MISSED)
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com