ARST
Arkansas State 15 at South Alabama 14
USA2025 · Week 8 · Oct 14, 2025 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
ARST · Drive 1PUNT · 8 plays · 24 yds
Q1 15:00
Hamilton DiBoyan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
51.3%
0.0
Q1 14:59
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 7 yds to the ARST 32
48.4%
-2.9
Q1 14:42
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 31
47.2%
-1.2
Q1 14:09
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 15 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST down
47.2%
0.0
Q1 13:50
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 45
45.2%
-2.0
Q1 13:22
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the ARST 49
45.4%
+0.3
Q1 12:41
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers, broken up by Jayvon Henderson
45.2%
-0.3
Q1 12:34
Jackson Waller punt for 38 yds
45.5%
+0.3
USA · Drive 2PUNT · 6 plays · 5 yds
Q1 12:27
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 6 yds to the USA 19
50.9%
+5.4
Q1 12:09
Bishop Davenport run for 5 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST down
50.9%
0.0
Q1 11:35
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 3 yds to the USA 27
50.9%
0.0
Q1 10:59
PJ Martin run for 3 yds to the USA 30
50.9%
0.0
Q1 10:20
Bishop Davenport sacked by Demarcus Hendricks for a loss of 12 yards to the USA 18
50.9%
0.0
Q1 9:41
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 50 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 3 yds to the ARST 35
50.6%
-0.3
ARST · Drive 3PUNT · 7 plays · 17 yds
Q1 9:31
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the ARST 42
47.5%
-3.1
Q1 9:02
Devin Spencer run for 17 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST down
46.3%
-1.2
Q1 8:25
Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the USA 38
44.7%
-1.6
Q1 7:51
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jabari Bush
44.3%
-0.4
Q1 7:44
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy Cobb
44.3%
0.0
Q1 7:38
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jordan Smart for no gain to the USA 38 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Noah Smith) to the USA 48
45.1%
+0.8
Q1 7:16
Jackson Waller punt for 33 yds Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive holding (Josh Stone) to the USA 25
45.2%
+0.1
USA · Drive 4TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q1 7:10
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 28
50.9%
+5.7
Q1 6:36
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 29
50.9%
0.0
Q1 5:56
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 24 yds to the ARST 47 Arkansas State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (AG McGhee) to the ARST 32
50.1%
-0.7
Q1 5:37
Kentrel Bullock run for 9 yds to the ARST 23
52.4%
+2.3
Q1 5:10
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the ARST 19 for a 1ST down
52.4%
0.0
Q1 4:32
PJ Martin run for 5 yds to the ARST 14
52.4%
0.0
Q1 4:01
PJ Martin run for 3 yds to the ARST 11
52.4%
0.0
Q1 3:46
PJ Martin run for no gain to the ARST 11 South Alabama Penalty, Offensive holding (Amaury Wiggins) to the ARST 21
52.1%
-0.3
Q1 3:31
Bishop Davenport run for 12 yds to the ARST 9 for a 1ST down
52.1%
0.0
Q1 2:50
Kentrel Bullock 9 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)
66.2%
+14.2
ARST · Drive 5PUNT · 6 plays · 7 yds
Q1 2:50
Hamilton DiBoyan kickoff for 65 yds , Chauncy Cobb return for 19 yds to the ARST 19
65.2%
-1.1
Q1 2:42
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for a loss of 6 yards to the ARST 13
63.7%
-1.4
Q1 2:13
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 12 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Mason Myers) to the ARST 7
63.5%
-0.3
Q1 1:57
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the ARST 13
63.2%
-0.3
Q1 1:22
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 13 yds to the ARST 26
63.2%
0.0
Q1 0:40
Jackson Waller punt for 55 yds , Devin Voisin returns for 1 yd to the USA 20
63.0%
-0.2
USA · Drive 6PUNT · 6 plays · 3 yds
Q1 0:32
South Alabama Penalty, false start (Jordan Davis) to the USA 15
63.9%
+0.9
Q1 0:31
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for no gain to the USA 15 South Alabama Penalty, Offensive holding (Jeremy Scott) to the USA 8
63.9%
0.0
Q1 0:11
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin Voisin
63.9%
0.0
Q1 0:10
Keenan Phillips run for 13 yds to the USA 21
63.9%
0.0
Q2 14:59
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Keenan Phillips for 2 yds to the USA 23
63.8%
-0.1
Q2 14:17
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 22 yds
65.1%
+1.3
ARST · Drive 7FG · 8 plays · 38 yds
Q2 14:16
Devin Spencer run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 46
63.0%
-2.1
Q2 13:50
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers
63.0%
0.0
Q2 13:46
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST down South Alabama Penalty, roughing passer (Tre'Mon Henry) to the USA 25 for a 1ST down
63.0%
0.0
Q2 13:40
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker for a 1ST down South Alabama Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Damyrion Darby) to the USA 10 for a 1ST down
62.7%
-0.3
Q2 13:05
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 4 yards to the USA 14
62.7%
0.0
Q2 12:50
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jabari Bush
62.7%
0.0
Q2 12:49
Kenyon Clay run for 7 yds to the USA 7
62.7%
0.0
Q2 12:02
Clune Van Andel 25 Yd Field Goal
52.9%
-9.8
USA · Drive 8PUNT · 6 plays · -2 yds
Q2 12:02
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 63 yds
55.2%
+2.3
Q2 12:02
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the USA 25
60.7%
+5.6
Q2 12:02
South Alabama Penalty, false start (Amaury Wiggins) to the USA 20
60.7%
0.0
Q2 12:02
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 17
60.7%
0.0
Q2 12:02
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 6 yds to the USA 23
60.7%
0.0
Q2 9:54
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 52 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 1 yd to the ARST 26
59.9%
-0.9
ARST · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · 19 yds
Q2 9:54
Kenyon Clay run for 9 yds to the ARST 35
54.9%
-4.9
Q2 9:54
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST down
54.9%
0.0
Q2 9:54
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 4 yds to the ARST 41
54.9%
0.0
Q2 9:54
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 45
53.7%
-1.2
Q2 9:54
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Ezra Burgess, broken up by Tirrell Johnson Jr.
53.2%
-0.5
Q2 7:55
Jackson Waller punt for 50 yds
54.3%
+1.1
USA · Drive 10PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q2 7:55
South Alabama Penalty, false start (Kenton Jerido) to the USA 2
61.5%
+7.2
Q2 7:55
PJ Martin run for 6 yds to the USA 8
61.5%
0.0
Q2 7:55
PJ Martin run for 4 yds to the USA 12
61.5%
0.0
Q2 7:55
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin Voisin, broken up by Cody Sigler
61.5%
0.0
Q2 6:38
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 53 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 7 yds to the ARST 42
60.8%
-0.6
ARST · Drive 11PUNT · 4 plays · 9 yds
Q2 6:38
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the ARST 49
56.2%
-4.7
Q2 6:38
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ARST 49
55.4%
-0.8
Q2 6:38
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USA 49
55.4%
0.0
Q2 4:36
Jackson Waller punt for 49 yds
55.4%
+0.1
USA · Drive 12PUNT · 9 plays · 8 yds
Q2 4:36
Keenan Phillips run for no gain to the USA 20
61.5%
+6.0
Q2 4:36
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jeremy Scott for 9 yds to the USA 29
61.5%
0.0
Q2 4:36
Keenan Phillips run for 3 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST down
61.5%
0.0
Q2 4:36
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jeremy Scott for 6 yds to the USA 38
61.5%
0.0
Q2 4:36
South Alabama Penalty, false start (Kenton Jerido) to the USA 33
62.1%
+0.6
Q2 4:36
Keenan Phillips run for no gain to the USA 33 South Alabama Penalty, Offensive holding (Ethan Hubbard) to the USA 23
61.5%
-0.6
Q2 2:00
Keenan Phillips run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 21
61.6%
+0.1
Q2 1:55
Keenan Phillips run for 7 yds to the USA 28
61.6%
0.0
Q2 1:40
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 39 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 6 yds to the ARST 39
60.9%
-0.6
ARST · Drive 13DOWNS · 9 plays · -4 yds
Q2 1:40
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 6 yds to the ARST 45
55.9%
-5.0
Q2 1:40
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jabari Bush for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
55.1%
-0.8
Q2 1:40
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the USA 42
54.5%
-0.5
Q2 1:40
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker
54.2%
-0.4
Q2 1:40
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the USA 41
54.2%
0.0
Q2 1:40
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the USA 40 for a 1ST down
55.0%
+0.8
Q2 0:31
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker
53.5%
-1.4
Q2 0:31
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers, broken up by Jayvon Henderson
53.5%
0.0
Q2 0:31
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 4 yds to the USA 36
53.5%
0.0
USA · Drive 14PUNT · 7 plays · 6 yds
Q3 15:00
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 65 yds
55.3%
+1.7
Q3 15:00
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 1 yd to the USA 26
60.1%
+4.8
Q3 15:00
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for no gain to the USA 26 South Alabama Penalty, Offensive holding (Devin Voisin) to the USA 16
60.1%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 20
60.1%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Miller McCrumby Arkansas State Penalty, off-side (Gavin Ransaw) to the USA 25
60.1%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Rod Gibbs for 6 yds to the USA 31
60.1%
0.0
Q3 12:57
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 50 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 2 yds to the ARST 21
59.7%
-14.1
ARST · Drive 15FG · 15 plays · 56 yds
Q3 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers
73.9%
+13.8
Q3 1:28
Hamilton DiBoyan kickoff for 60 yds , Chauncy Cobb return for 20 yds to the ARST 25
83.1%
-0.5
Q3 1:28
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 5 yds to the ARST 30
78.1%
-5.0
Q3 1:28
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 5 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST down
78.1%
0.0
Q3 1:28
Devin Spencer run for 12 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST down
78.1%
0.0
Q3 1:28
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 9 yds to the USA 44
78.0%
-0.1
Q4 15:00
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST down
77.4%
-0.6
Q4 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for a loss of 6 yards to the USA 47
77.5%
+0.1
Q4 15:00
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the USA 46
77.4%
-0.1
Q4 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 13 yds to the USA 33
77.4%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Jaylen Raynor run for 7 yds to the USA 26 for a 1ST down
77.3%
-0.1
Q4 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli, broken up by Brian Dillard
77.0%
-0.4
Q4 15:00
Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the USA 23
77.0%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 4 yds to the USA 19
77.0%
0.0
Q4 10:43
Clune Van Andel 37 yd FG GOOD
70.2%
-6.8
ARST · Drive 16MISSED FG · 17 plays · 69 yds
Q3 12:57
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 23
54.6%
-5.1
Q3 12:57
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers
54.6%
0.0
Q3 12:57
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 8 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST down
54.6%
0.0
Q3 12:12
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 29 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST down
54.6%
0.0
Q3 12:12
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the USA 40
51.6%
-3.1
Q3 12:12
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 9 yds to the USA 31
51.6%
0.0
Q3 12:12
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Mason Myers) to the USA 36
51.6%
0.0
Q3 12:12
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 37
51.6%
0.0
Q3 12:12
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the USA 29 for a 1ST down
52.4%
+0.8
Q3 12:12
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 12 yds to the USA 17 for a 1ST down
51.6%
-0.8
Q3 12:12
Devin Spencer run for 6 yds to the USA 11
51.6%
0.0
Q3 12:12
Devin Spencer run for 8 yds to the USA 3 for a 1ST down
51.6%
0.0
Q3 12:12
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Nehemiah Chandler
51.6%
0.0
Q3 12:12
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 5
51.6%
0.0
Q3 12:12
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers
51.6%
0.0
Q3 6:41
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Cameron Ambrose) to the USA 10
50.3%
-1.2
Q3 12:12
Clune Van Andel 28 yd FG MISSED
52.4%
-8.0
USA · Drive 17PUNT · 9 plays · 27 yds
Q3 12:12
Bishop Davenport run for 2 yds to the USA 22
60.4%
+10.0
Q3 12:12
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 9 yds to the USA 31 for a 1ST down
60.4%
+8.0
Q3 12:12
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Kentrel Bullock
60.4%
0.0
Q3 12:12
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Micah Woods for 5 yds to the USA 36
60.4%
0.0
Q3 12:12
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Rod Gibbs for 7 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST down
60.8%
+0.5
Q3 12:12
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin Voisin
61.0%
+0.1
Q3 12:12
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 47
61.0%
0.0
Q3 12:12
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Kentrel Bullock
61.1%
+0.2
Q3 3:35
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 42 yds
57.4%
-3.7
ARST · Drive 18INT · 1 play · 0 yds
Q3 3:24
Nehemiah Chandler return for no gain to the USA 42
54.0%
-3.4
USA · Drive 19TD · 5 plays · 58 yds
Q3 3:24
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 13 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST down
57.9%
+3.9
Q3 3:24
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 7 yds to the ARST 38
58.3%
+0.4
Q3 3:24
Bishop Davenport pass complete to PJ Martin for 4 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST down
58.7%
+0.4
Q3 3:24
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Micah Woods for 7 yds to the ARST 27
58.7%
0.0
Q3 1:34
PJ Martin run for 27 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)
83.6%
+24.9
USA · Drive 20PUNT · 6 plays · -18 yds
Q4 10:43
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
71.2%
+1.0
Q4 10:43
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 23
76.8%
+5.6
Q4 10:43
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 5 yds to the USA 28
76.8%
0.0
Q4 10:43
South Alabama Penalty, false start (Rod Gibbs) to the USA 23
76.8%
0.0
Q4 10:43
Bishop Davenport sacked by Ethan Hassler for a loss of 16 yards to the USA 7 Bishop Davenport fumbled, recovered by USA Bishop Davenport , return for 0 yards
76.8%
0.0
Q4 8:31
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 41 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 10 yds to the USA 17 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Reed Linder) to the USA 48
80.9%
+4.1
ARST · Drive 21TD · 3 plays · 48 yds
Q4 8:31
Jaylen Raynor run for 42 yds to the USA 6 for a 1ST down
78.0%
-2.9
Q4 7:51
Hunter Summers 6 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
47.8%
-30.1
Q4 7:51
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers
20.8%
-27.1
USA · Drive 22MISSED FG · 17 plays · 64 yds
Q4 7:51
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 65 yds
22.2%
+1.5
Q4 7:51
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USA 30
32.0%
+9.7
Q4 7:51
PJ Martin run for 6 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST down
32.0%
0.0
Q4 7:51
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin Voisin for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, roughing passer (Demarcus Hendricks) to the ARST 49 for a 1ST down
32.0%
0.0
Q4 7:51
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the ARST 42
33.7%
+1.7
Q4 7:51
Kentrel Bullock run for 11 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST down
34.7%
+1.0
Q4 7:51
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the ARST 29
34.7%
0.0
Q4 7:51
Bishop Davenport run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 31
34.7%
0.0
Q4 7:51
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the ARST 24
34.5%
-0.2
Q4 7:51
South Alabama Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the ARST 49
34.1%
-0.4
Q4 7:51
Keenan Phillips run for 39 yds to the ARST 10 for a 1ST down
33.5%
-0.6
Q4 7:51
Keenan Phillips run for no gain to the ARST 10 South Alabama Penalty, Offensive holding (Amaury Wiggins) to the ARST 20
34.7%
+1.2
Q4 7:51
Keenan Phillips run for no gain to the ARST 20
34.7%
0.0
Q4 7:51
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the ARST 20
34.7%
0.0
Q4 7:51
Kentrel Bullock run for 9 yds to the ARST 11
34.5%
-0.2
Q4 2:00
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Jeremy Scott South Alabama Penalty, off-side (Simeon Mitchell) to the ARST 34
29.1%
-5.4
Q4 1:50
Hamilton DiBoyan 29 yd FG MISSED
28.7%
-0.4
ARST · Drive 23FG · 10 plays · 60 yds
Q4 1:50
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 9 yds to the ARST 29
16.0%
-12.6
Q4 1:50
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 8 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST down
16.0%
0.0
Q4 1:50
Jaylen Raynor run for 14 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST down
16.0%
0.0
Q4 1:50
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 9 yds to the USA 40
15.3%
-0.7
Q4 1:50
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 6 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST down
15.4%
0.0
Q4 1:00
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Nehemiah Chandler
13.9%
-1.4
Q4 1:00
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the USA 25
13.9%
0.0
Q4 1:00
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the USA 23 for a 1ST down
13.9%
0.0
Q4 0:31
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the USA 20
13.8%
-0.1
Q4 0:03
Clune Van Andel 38 Yd Field Goal
13.9%
+0.1
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:51
Hunter Summers 6 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-30.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:51
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers
-27.1
TD · Q3 1:34
PJ Martin run for 27 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)
+24.9