2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreISU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:08 · Clune Van Andel 36 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:42: Rocco Becht run for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy PAT MISSED) — ARST win probability +1.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- FG · Q2 13:11: Clune Van Andel 45 Yd Field Goal — ARST win probability +0.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 0:39: Jaylen Raynor 3 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick) — ARST win probability +2.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 0:11: Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for no gain to the ISU 35 — ISU win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:40: Tyler Perkins punt for 42 yds — ISU win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 14:43ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it89.7%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.8%average punt
- Q1 13:21ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snapGo for it10.7%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q1 9:07ISU 4th & 6 at ARST 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snapGo for it87.4%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call87.4%70% to makePunt87.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 6:37ARST 4th & 9 at ISU 38, down 3Close callPunted · 13.4% before the snapGo for it13.5%32% to convertField goal13.4%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call13.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 13:11ARST 4th & 5 at ISU 27, down 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snapGo for it14.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call14.1%62% to makePunt12.2%−1.9average punt
- Q2 8:52ISU 4th & 5 at ARST 30, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 81.0% before the snapGo for it81.0%41% to convertField goalTheir call80.9%−0.156% to makePunt80.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 7:24ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snapGo for it18.1%−1.031% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.2%average punt
- Q2 3:34ARST 4th & 1 at ISU 35, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.1%71% to convertField goal21.2%−1.945% to makePunt20.4%−2.7average punt
- Q3 9:08ARST 4th & 6 at ISU 18, down 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.0%−0.438% to convertField goalTheir call11.4%79% to makePunt7.1%−4.3average punt
- Q3 8:25ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 29, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snapGo for it91.1%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.6%average punt
- Q3 6:09ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 38, down 15Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 10.9% before the snapGo for it11.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.1%−1.2average punt
- Q4 11:53ARST 4th & 23 at ISU 23, down 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snapGo for it6.5%−2.27% to convertField goalTheir call8.8%70% to makePunt4.3%−4.5average punt
- Q4 6:40ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 7, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snapGo for it94.5%−0.923% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q4 3:52ARST 4th & 5 at ISU 23, down 22Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%−0.240% to convertField goal1.1%70% to makePunt0.5%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 2:42ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call87.3%97% to makeGo for two87.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartISUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1792% → 92%
Q1 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Carson Hansen Iowa State Penalty, Offensive holding (Dylan Barrett) to the ISU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:138% → 8%
Q1 13:24
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
8.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy Cobb, broken up by Jamison PattonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3FG10 plays · 52 yds · 4:0692% → 92%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
8.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 11 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
8.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Cooper Alexander for 14 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+13
8.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 13 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
8.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Cooper Alexander, broken up by Nigel NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 2:208% → 8%
ISUDrive 5TD7 plays · 91 yds · 3:4892% → 91%
ARSTDrive 6FG9 plays · 55 yds · 4:167% → 7%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
6.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 6 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+26
6.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 26 yds to the ISU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
6.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 16 yds to the ISU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
6.8%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jace J. Gilbert for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 35 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+9
6.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 9 yds to the ISU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7MISSED FG9 plays · 45 yds · 4:1893% → 92%
Q2 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+27
7.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Tyler Moore for 27 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD18 plays · 70 yds · 8:127% → 9%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
7.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 25Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+6
7.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 6 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+8
9.5%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the ISU 22 fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor for a 1ST down Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ISU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9TD6 plays · 75 yds · 0:2796% → 98%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
3.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 14 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
3.5%
Rocco Becht sacked by Bryan Whitehead and Terry Kirksey for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 38Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+35
3.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 35 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
3.5%
Dominic Overby 27 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Rocco Becht Pass to Carson Hansen for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
2.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for no gain to the ISU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FG15 plays · 50 yds · 5:475% → 6%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
5.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy Cobb, broken up by Will McLaughlinSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
5.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for no gain to the ARST 43 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Corey Rucker) to the ARST 33Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+8
4.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 8 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+11
4.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 21 yds to the ISU 38 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Chauncy Cobb) to the ISU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4196% → 97%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.9%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett Eskildsen, broken up by AG McGheeSimilar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
3.3%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase Sowell, broken up by Malik McConicoSimilar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+14
3.3%
Tyler Perkins punt for 56 yds , Kyle Taylor returns for 14 yds to the ARST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:054% → 3%
ISUDrive 14INT7 plays · 53 yds · 2:3997% → 97%
ARSTDrive 15TD18 plays · 85 yds · 6:262% → 2%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
1.7%
Devin Spencer run for no gain to the ARST 15 Arkansas State Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the ARST 10Similar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+13
1.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 13 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 2
OWN 23
-10
1.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ARST 23 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Devin Spencer) to the ARST 13Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+12
1.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 12 yds to the ARST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-2
1.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 39Similar
Q3 0:12
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+12
1.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 12 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 11
50
+15
1.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 15 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-7
1.7%
Jaylen Raynor sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ISU 42 Arkansas State Penalty, intentional grounding (Jaylen Raynor) to the ISU 42Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+35
1.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 35 yds to the ISU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Jeremiah CooperSimilar
Q4 12:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
1.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for no gain to the ISU 2 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Jaylen Bonelli) to the ISU 17Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
-9
1.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Wil Saxton) to the ISU 26Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 26
+3
1.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 3 yds to the ISU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1798% → 98%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 4 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
2.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 3 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
2.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 6 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+44
2.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 44 yds to the ARST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-10
2.3%
Abu Sama III run for no gain Iowa State Penalty, Offensive holding (James Neal III) to the ARST 19Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+15
2.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett Eskildsen for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Trenton Alan Yowe) to the ARST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17INT3 plays · 10 yds · 0:281% → 1%
ISUDrive 18TD5 plays · 92 yds · 1:1097% → 98%
ARSTDrive 19DOWNS8 plays · 26 yds · 2:410% → 0%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
0.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 8 yds to the ISU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20Uncategorized9 plays · 58 yds · 3:2899% → 100%
Q4 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+31
0.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 31 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:39
Jaylen Raynor 3 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)
+2.9
TD · Q4 6:40
Tyler Perkins punt for 42 yds
-2
TD · Q1 2:42
Rocco Becht run for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy PAT MISSED)
+1.2