TXST
Texas State 30 at Arkansas State 31
ARST2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey play
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TXST · Drive 1TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
7.1%
0.0
Q1 14:59
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 4 yds to the TXST 29
6.3%
-0.8
Q1 14:38
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 13 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST down
6.2%
-0.1
Q1 14:20
Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST down
5.9%
-0.3
Q1 14:03
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 5 yds to the ARST 42
5.7%
-0.2
Q1 13:30
Lincoln Pare run for 18 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST down
5.6%
0.0
Q1 13:13
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.
5.5%
-0.1
Q1 13:01
Brad Jackson 24 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)
3.2%
-2.4
ARST · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q1 13:01
Michael James kickoff for 60 yds
3.4%
+0.2
Q1 13:00
Devin Spencer run for 1 yd to the ARST 26
4.7%
+1.3
Q1 12:24
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the ARST 28
4.7%
0.0
Q1 12:00
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Tyler Fortenberry, broken up by Ryan Nolan
4.7%
0.0
Q1 11:57
Jackson Waller punt for 28 yds
4.7%
0.0
TXST · Drive 3PUNT · 6 plays · -2 yds
Q1 11:47
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.
3.1%
-1.6
Q1 11:39
Jaylen Jenkins run for 4 yds to the TXST 48
3.1%
0.0
Q1 11:08
Brad Jackson run for no gain to the TXST 48 Texas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Brock Riker) to the TXST 38
3.1%
0.0
Q1 10:50
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 9 yds to the TXST 47
3.1%
0.0
Q1 10:13
Texas State Penalty, false start (Malik Willis) to the TXST 42
3.1%
0.0
Q1 10:00
David Nunez punt for 43 yds
3.1%
0.0
ARST · Drive 4PUNT · 7 plays · 12 yds
Q1 9:54
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers, broken up by Khamari Terrell
4.7%
+1.5
Q1 9:49
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 19
4.7%
0.0
Q1 9:20
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 7 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST down
4.7%
+0.1
Q1 8:59
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Devarrick Woods for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 19
4.6%
-0.1
Q1 8:26
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 21
4.7%
+0.1
Q1 7:49
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 6 yds to the ARST 27
4.7%
0.0
Q1 7:06
Jackson Waller punt for 46 yds , Beau Sparks returns for no gain to the TXST 24
4.7%
0.0
TXST · Drive 5PUNT · 8 plays · 29 yds
Q1 6:58
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TXST 32
3.3%
-1.4
Q1 6:33
Beau Sparks run for 8 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST down
3.3%
0.0
Q1 6:00
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TXST 41
3.2%
-0.2
Q1 5:37
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
3.2%
0.0
Q1 4:57
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau Sparks
3.2%
0.0
Q1 4:51
Brad Jackson run for 3 yds to the ARST 47
3.2%
0.0
Q1 4:13
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau Sparks
3.2%
0.0
Q1 4:08
David Nunez punt for 27 yds
3.3%
0.0
ARST · Drive 6TD · 7 plays · 80 yds
Q1 4:01
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ARST 28
4.8%
+1.6
Q1 3:41
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 24 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST down
4.8%
0.0
Q1 3:16
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers
5.3%
+0.4
Q1 3:11
Jaylen Raynor run for 33 yds to the TXST 15 for a 1ST down
5.3%
0.0
Q1 2:48
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the TXST 13
5.4%
+0.1
Q1 2:14
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Terrence Cooks II
5.4%
0.0
Q1 2:04
Jaylen Raynor 13 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)
8.0%
+2.6
TXST · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · 1 yds
Q1 2:04
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
7.4%
-0.6
Q1 2:01
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TXST 26
6.4%
-1.0
Q1 1:32
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 26
6.4%
0.0
Q1 1:05
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau Sparks, broken up by Avante Dickerson
6.8%
+0.4
Q1 1:00
David Nunez punt for 39 yds
6.8%
0.0
ARST · Drive 8PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q1 0:53
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the ARST 36
7.8%
+1.1
Q1 0:29
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the ARST 42
7.9%
+0.1
Q2 14:59
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Canden Grogan
8.5%
+0.6
Q2 14:55
Jackson Waller punt for 57 yds
8.4%
-0.1
TXST · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q2 14:44
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau Sparks
7.7%
-0.6
Q2 14:36
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 1
7.7%
0.0
Q2 14:03
Texas State Penalty, false start (Chris Dawn Jr.) to the TXST 1
7.7%
0.0
Q2 13:50
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.
7.7%
0.0
Q2 13:43
David Nunez punt for 44 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for no gain to the ARST 1 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Cedric Franklin) to the ARST 45
7.7%
0.0
ARST · Drive 10FG · 7 plays · 21 yds
Q2 13:33
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the TXST 49
9.3%
+1.5
Q2 13:06
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 25 yds to the TXST 24 for a 1ST down
9.6%
+0.3
Q2 12:36
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the TXST 21
9.7%
+0.1
Q2 12:05
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the TXST 18
9.7%
0.0
Q2 11:30
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Noah Smith) to the TXST 23
9.6%
-0.1
Q2 11:20
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Michael Boudoin III for a loss of 11 yards to the TXST 34
9.6%
0.0
Q2 10:29
Clune Van Andel 51 Yd Field Goal
14.0%
+4.3
TXST · Drive 11TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q2 10:29
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 62 yds
17.7%
+3.7
Q2 10:28
Greg Burrell run for 1 yd to the TXST 26
18.2%
+0.5
Q2 10:03
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
18.2%
0.0
Q2 9:52
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds to the ARST 47
17.0%
-1.1
Q2 9:28
Greg Burrell run for 14 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST down
16.8%
-0.2
Q2 9:07
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds Texas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Dorion Strawn) to the ARST 40
16.6%
-0.2
Q2 8:59
Brad Jackson pass complete to Ty Stamey for 3 yds to the ARST 37
16.6%
0.0
Q2 8:28
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau Sparks
16.6%
0.0
Q2 8:21
Brad Jackson pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 18 yds to the ARST 19 for a 1ST down
16.6%
0.0
Q2 7:39
Jaylen Jenkins run for 3 yds to the ARST 16
17.1%
+0.5
Q2 7:09
Jaylen Jenkins run for 2 yds to the ARST 14
17.1%
0.0
Q2 6:36
Greg Burrell run for 1 yd to the ARST 13
17.1%
0.0
Q2 5:48
Tyler Robles 31 Yd Field Goal
8.8%
-8.4
ARST · Drive 12PUNT · 9 plays · 11 yds
Q2 5:48
Michael James kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
9.4%
+0.7
Q2 5:47
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker
11.8%
+2.3
Q2 5:43
Devin Spencer run for 7 yds to the ARST 32
11.8%
0.0
Q2 5:07
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST down
12.8%
+1.0
Q2 4:45
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Wil Saxton) to the ARST 31
13.0%
+0.2
Q2 4:35
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 29
12.9%
-0.1
Q2 4:20
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 3 yds to the ARST 32
12.9%
0.0
Q2 3:50
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 4 yds to the ARST 36
12.9%
0.0
Q2 3:08
Jackson Waller punt for 26 yds
12.9%
0.0
TXST · Drive 13PUNT · 8 plays · 14 yds
Q2 3:01
Brad Jackson pass complete to Titus Lyons for 5 yds to the TXST 43
10.1%
-2.8
Q2 2:43
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 46
10.0%
-0.1
Q2 2:07
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST down
9.9%
-0.1
Q2 1:56
Greg Burrell run for no gain to the TXST 48
9.9%
0.0
Q2 1:40
Texas State Penalty, false start (Ty Mims) to the TXST 43
9.9%
0.0
Q2 1:21
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 5 yds to the TXST 48
10.9%
+1.0
Q2 1:13
Brad Jackson run for 4 yds to the ARST 48
10.9%
0.0
Q2 0:20
David Nunez punt for 20 yds
10.9%
0.0
ARST · Drive 14END OF HALF · 1 play · 0 yds
Q2 0:13
run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 35
14.7%
+3.8
ARST · Drive 15PUNT · 6 plays · 21 yds
Q3 15:00
Michael James kickoff for 52 yds , Chauncy Cobb return for 12 yds to the ARST 25
11.9%
-2.8
Q3 14:53
Jaylen Raynor run for 15 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST down
15.4%
+3.6
Q3 14:27
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 42
15.9%
+0.5
Q3 14:04
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 4 yds to the ARST 46
15.9%
0.0
Q3 13:30
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy Cobb
15.9%
0.0
Q3 13:25
Jackson Waller punt for 38 yds
15.7%
-0.2
TXST · Drive 16PUNT · 8 plays · 9 yds
Q3 13:17
Brad Jackson run for 4 yds to the TXST 20
12.5%
-3.3
Q3 12:56
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST down
12.5%
0.0
Q3 12:40
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TXST 33
12.5%
0.0
Q3 12:13
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 33 Texas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Dorion Strawn) to the TXST 23
12.5%
0.0
Q3 12:00
Brad Jackson run for no gain to the TXST 23 Texas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Dorion Strawn) to the TXST 13
12.5%
0.0
Q3 11:43
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 1 yd to the TXST 14
12.5%
0.0
Q3 11:02
Brad Jackson pass complete to Greg Burrell for 11 yds to the TXST 25
12.5%
0.0
Q3 10:17
David Nunez punt for 43 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for no gain to the ARST 32
13.1%
+0.6
ARST · Drive 17PUNT · 4 plays · -9 yds
Q3 10:10
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker
16.3%
+3.2
Q3 10:03
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Bobby Crosby for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 27
18.9%
+2.6
Q3 9:26
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Tymere Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 23
18.9%
0.0
Q3 8:36
Jackson Waller punt for 34 yds
17.2%
-1.7
TXST · Drive 18DOWNS · 9 plays · 41 yds
Q3 8:35
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 46
13.5%
-3.8
Q3 8:14
Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the ARST 48
13.1%
-0.4
Q3 7:51
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST down
13.0%
-0.1
Q3 7:31
Brad Jackson run for 8 yds to the ARST 38 Brad Jackson fumbled, recovered by TXST Brad Jackson Jackson,Brad rush left for 8 yards to the ASU38, fumble by Jackson,Brad recovered by TXS Jackson,Brad, Jackson,Brad rush (McGhee,AG).
13.0%
0.0
Q3 6:51
Beau Sparks run for no gain to the ARST 38 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (AG McGhee) to the ARST 23 for a 1ST down
12.0%
-0.9
Q3 6:22
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 4 yds to the ARST 19
12.0%
0.0
Q3 6:04
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds to the ARST 16
12.0%
0.0
Q3 5:18
Greg Burrell run for no gain to the ARST 16
12.0%
0.0
Q3 4:35
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the ARST 16
13.1%
+1.1
ARST · Drive 19PUNT · 9 plays · 14 yds
Q3 4:31
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST down
17.9%
+4.8
Q3 4:01
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 32
18.9%
+1.0
Q3 3:27
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 7 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST down
18.9%
0.0
Q3 3:07
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for no gain to the ARST 39 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Riley McGehee) to the ARST 29
19.3%
+0.4
Q3 2:49
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for no gain to the ARST 29 Arkansas State Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the ARST 24
18.9%
-0.4
Q3 2:21
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 5 yds to the ARST 29
18.9%
0.0
Q3 1:48
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Javis Mynatt for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 25
19.5%
+0.6
Q3 1:06
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 5 yds to the ARST 30
20.0%
+0.5
Q3 0:13
Jackson Waller punt for 49 yds , Beau Sparks returns for no gain to the TXST 30 Texas State Penalty, personal foul (Canden Grogan) to the TXST 11
19.8%
-0.2
ARST · Drive 20TD · 12 plays · 75 yds
Q4 12:05
Michael James kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
6.5%
-13.3
Q4 12:04
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 6 yds to the ARST 31
8.3%
+1.8
Q4 11:35
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for no gain to the ARST 31
8.3%
0.0
Q4 10:55
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST down
8.3%
0.0
Q4 10:37
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 36
8.3%
0.0
Q4 10:05
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 38
8.2%
-0.2
Q4 9:29
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 27 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST down
8.7%
+0.6
Q4 8:50
Cedric Hawkins run for 16 yds to the TXST 19 for a 1ST down
9.4%
+0.7
Q4 8:22
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the TXST 15
22.1%
+12.7
Q4 7:44
Corey Rucker run for 4 yds to the TXST 11
8.5%
-13.6
Q4 7:13
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the TXST 5 for a 1ST down
8.2%
-0.3
Q4 6:40
Hunter Summers 5 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)
29.8%
+21.6
TXST · Drive 21TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q4 6:40
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 64 yds
27.9%
-1.9
Q4 6:38
Brad Jackson run for 3 yds to the TXST 28
20.6%
-7.3
Q4 6:04
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 34 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST down
20.6%
0.0
Q4 5:39
Lincoln Pare run for 15 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST down
18.8%
-1.8
Q4 5:21
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ARST 18
18.8%
0.0
Q4 4:49
Brad Jackson run for 9 yds to the ARST 9 for a 1ST down
18.8%
0.0
Q4 4:18
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ARST 4
19.9%
+1.1
Q4 3:45
Lincoln Pare 4 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)
5.1%
-14.9
ARST · Drive 22TD · 9 plays · 80 yds
Q4 3:45
Michael James kickoff for 65 yds , Chauncy Cobb return for 20 yds to the ARST 20
5.4%
+0.3
Q4 3:39
Jaylen Raynor run for 7 yds to the ARST 27
8.1%
+2.7
Q4 3:18
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 4 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST down
8.0%
-0.1
Q4 2:49
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 28
8.0%
+0.1
Q4 2:13
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 14 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST down
6.5%
-1.6
Q4 1:53
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST down
6.5%
0.0
Q4 1:51
Jaylen Raynor run for 14 yds to the TXST 31 for a 1ST down
6.6%
+0.1
Q4 1:37
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy Cobb for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Ryan Nolan) to the TXST 16 for a 1ST down
7.7%
+1.1
Q4 1:31
Jaylen Raynor run for 11 yds to the TXST 5 for a 1ST down
6.8%
-0.8
TXST · Drive 23TD · 3 plays · 66 yds
Q4 1:20
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 66 yds , Darius Jackson return for 20 yds to the TXST 34
78.7%
+71.9
Q4 1:14
Brad Jackson run for 63 yds to the ARST 3 for a 1ST down
55.1%
-23.7
Q4 1:00
Lincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Tyler Robles PAT failed)
3.6%
-51.5
ARST · Drive 24TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q4 1:00
Michael James kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
2.2%
-1.4
Q4 0:59
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 9 yds to the ARST 34
2.9%
+0.7
Q4 0:40
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 27 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST down
2.9%
0.0
Q4 0:32
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 9 yds to the TXST 30
3.0%
+0.1
Q4 0:22
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jabari Bush for 14 yds to the TXST 16 for a 1ST down
3.1%
+0.1
Q4 0:13
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 12 yds to the TXST 4 for a 1ST down
3.1%
0.0
Q4 0:07
Jaylen Raynor 4 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)
64.8%
+61.7
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:20
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 66 yds , Darius Jackson return for 20 yds to the TXST 34
+71.9
TD · Q4 0:07
Jaylen Raynor 4 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)
+61.7
TD · Q4 1:00
Lincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Tyler Robles PAT failed)
-51.5