ISU
Iowa State 24 at Arkansas State 16
ARST2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey play
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ISU · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q1 15:00
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 59 yds
7.5%
0.0
Q1 15:00
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett Eskildsen
5.6%
-1.9
Q1 14:55
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Xavier Townsend
5.6%
0.0
Q1 14:51
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Carson Hansen Iowa State Penalty, Offensive holding (Dylan Barrett) to the ISU 25
5.6%
0.0
Q1 14:43
Tyler Perkins punt for 44 yds
5.7%
0.0
ARST · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · 1 yds
Q1 14:34
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ARST 35
7.5%
+1.8
Q1 14:01
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 37
7.5%
0.0
Q1 13:24
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy Cobb, broken up by Jamison Patton
7.5%
0.0
Q1 13:21
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Jordan Smart) to the ARST 32
7.5%
0.0
Q1 13:21
Jackson Waller punt for 43 yds
7.5%
0.0
ISU · Drive 3FG · 10 plays · 52 yds
Q1 13:13
Carson Hansen run for 7 yds to the ISU 32
5.6%
-1.9
Q1 12:54
Carson Hansen run for 6 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST down
5.6%
0.0
Q1 12:21
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 11 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST down
5.4%
-0.2
Q1 11:58
Rocco Becht pass complete to Cooper Alexander for 14 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST down
5.3%
-0.1
Q1 11:21
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 40
5.3%
-0.1
Q1 10:42
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 13 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST down
5.3%
0.0
Q1 9:59
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Abu Sama III
5.3%
0.0
Q1 9:53
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the ARST 23
5.3%
0.0
Q1 9:12
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Cooper Alexander, broken up by Nigel Nelson
5.3%
0.0
Q1 9:07
Kyle Konrardy 41 yd FG GOOD
4.5%
-0.8
ARST · Drive 4PUNT · 8 plays · 37 yds
Q1 9:04
Kyle Konrardy kickoff for 65 yds , Chauncy Cobb return for 25 yds to the ARST 25
4.6%
+0.2
Q1 8:57
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 27
5.5%
+0.8
Q1 8:32
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the ARST 27
5.5%
0.0
Q1 7:55
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 34 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST down
5.5%
0.0
Q1 7:17
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the ISU 38
5.9%
+0.4
Q1 6:49
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Jontez Williams
5.9%
0.0
Q1 6:43
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Nana Burris
5.9%
0.0
Q1 6:37
Jackson Waller punt for 29 yds
5.8%
-0.1
ISU · Drive 5TD · 7 plays · 91 yds
Q1 6:30
Carson Hansen run for 10 yds to the ISU 19 for a 1ST down
4.6%
-1.2
Q1 5:47
Rocco Becht pass complete to Tyler Moore for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
4.6%
0.0
Q1 5:21
Carson Hansen run for 7 yds to the ARST 43
4.5%
-0.1
Q1 4:44
Carson Hansen run for 38 yds to the ARST 5 for a 1ST down
4.5%
0.0
Q1 4:00
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ARST 2
4.5%
0.0
Q1 3:21
Rocco Becht sacked by Ethan Hassler for a loss of 8 yards to the ARST 10
4.5%
0.0
Q1 2:42
Rocco Becht run for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy PAT MISSED)
3.3%
-1.2
ARST · Drive 6FG · 9 plays · 55 yds
Q1 2:33
Chase Smith kickoff for 62 yds , Chauncy Cobb return for 25 yds to the ARST 40 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Joe Drew) to the ARST 18
3.4%
+0.1
Q1 2:27
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 6 yds to the ARST 24
2.2%
-1.2
Q1 1:49
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the ARST 26
2.2%
0.0
Q1 1:09
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 26 yds to the ISU 48 for a 1ST down
2.2%
0.0
Q1 0:32
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 16 yds to the ISU 32 for a 1ST down
2.2%
+0.1
Q2 14:58
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jace J. Gilbert for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 35 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor , return for 0 yards
2.3%
+0.1
Q2 14:22
Devin Spencer run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 36
2.3%
0.0
Q2 13:44
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 9 yds to the ISU 27
2.3%
0.0
Q2 13:11
Clune Van Andel 45 Yd Field Goal
3.6%
+1.3
ISU · Drive 7MISSED FG · 9 plays · 45 yds
Q2 13:11
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
5.3%
+1.6
Q2 13:10
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the ISU 26
4.4%
-0.9
Q2 12:34
Rocco Becht pass complete to Tyler Moore for 27 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST down
4.4%
0.0
Q2 12:10
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the ARST 45
4.2%
-0.2
Q2 11:32
Abu Sama III run for 10 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST down
4.2%
0.0
Q2 11:07
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the ARST 31
4.4%
+0.2
Q2 10:26
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the ARST 28
5.5%
+1.1
Q2 9:40
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 30
5.5%
0.0
Q2 8:52
Kyle Konrardy 48 yd FG MISSED
5.6%
+0.1
ARST · Drive 8TD · 18 plays · 70 yds
Q2 8:51
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 25
6.5%
+0.9
Q2 8:15
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli
6.5%
0.0
Q2 8:07
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 6 yds to the ARST 31
6.5%
-0.1
Q2 7:24
Jackson Waller punt for a 1ST down
6.6%
+0.1
Q2 7:17
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the ARST 49
6.6%
0.0
Q2 6:48
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 5 yds to the ISU 46
6.8%
+0.2
Q2 5:58
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST down
7.5%
+0.7
Q2 5:29
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the ISU 44
7.6%
+0.1
Q2 4:52
Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the ISU 41
7.6%
0.0
Q2 4:14
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ISU 35
7.8%
+0.2
Q2 3:34
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the ISU 34 for a 1ST down
7.7%
-0.1
Q2 3:19
Kenyon Clay run for 9 yds to the ISU 25
7.8%
+0.1
Q2 2:38
run for a loss of 5 yards to the ISU 22 fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor for a 1ST down Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ISU 22 for a 1ST down
7.8%
0.0
Q2 1:59
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ISU 17
7.7%
-0.1
Q2 1:18
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ISU 15
7.9%
+0.2
Q2 1:12
Kenyon Clay run for 12 yds to the ISU 3 for a 1ST down
8.0%
+0.1
Q2 0:48
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers
8.0%
0.0
Q2 0:39
Jaylen Raynor 3 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)
13.5%
+5.4
ISU · Drive 9TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q2 0:39
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 40 yds
13.0%
-0.5
Q2 0:38
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 14 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST down
3.1%
-9.9
Q2 0:32
Rocco Becht sacked by Bryan Whitehead and Terry Kirksey for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 38
11.3%
+8.2
Q2 0:24
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 35 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST down
11.9%
+0.6
Q2 0:11
Dominic Overby 27 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Rocco Becht Pass to Carson Hansen for Two-Point Conversion)
2.9%
-9.0
Q2 0:11
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for no gain to the ISU 35
0.8%
-2.1
ARST · Drive 10END OF HALF · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q2 0:11
Chase Smith kickoff for 50 yds , Reed Linder return for 20 yds to the ARST 35
0.9%
+0.1
Q2 0:06
Devin Spencer run for 12 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST down
1.6%
+0.7
ARST · Drive 11FG · 15 plays · 50 yds
Q3 15:00
Chase Smith kickoff for 44 yds , Reed Linder return for 11 yds to the ARST 32
1.2%
-0.5
Q3 14:55
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy Cobb, broken up by Will McLaughlin
1.7%
+0.6
Q3 14:52
Devin Spencer run for no gain to the ARST 32
1.8%
0.0
Q3 14:13
Jaylen Raynor run for 11 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST down
1.8%
0.0
Q3 13:32
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker
1.8%
0.0
Q3 13:24
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for no gain to the ARST 43 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Corey Rucker) to the ARST 33
1.8%
0.0
Q3 13:14
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 8 yds to the ARST 41
1.8%
0.0
Q3 12:37
Jaylen Raynor run for 21 yds to the ISU 38 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Chauncy Cobb) to the ISU 48
1.6%
-0.1
Q3 12:04
Jaylen Raynor run for 15 yds to the ISU 33 for a 1ST down
1.7%
0.0
Q3 11:23
Devin Spencer run for 6 yds to the ISU 27
1.7%
0.0
Q3 10:46
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ISU 22 for a 1ST down
1.7%
0.0
Q3 10:01
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the ISU 18
1.9%
+0.2
Q3 9:21
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jordan Smart
1.9%
0.0
Q3 9:16
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers
1.9%
0.0
Q3 9:08
Clune Van Andel 36 Yd Field Goal
10.1%
+8.1
ISU · Drive 12PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q3 9:08
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 59 yds
11.8%
+1.8
Q3 9:06
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett Eskildsen, broken up by AG McGhee
9.5%
-2.3
Q3 8:59
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the ISU 29
9.5%
0.0
Q3 8:29
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase Sowell, broken up by Malik McConico
9.5%
0.0
Q3 8:25
Tyler Perkins punt for 56 yds , Kyle Taylor returns for 14 yds to the ARST 29
9.6%
+0.1
ARST · Drive 13PUNT · 4 plays · 9 yds
Q3 8:14
Devin Spencer run for 1 yd to the ARST 30
11.8%
+2.2
Q3 7:37
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Cam Smith and Alijah Carnell for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 27
11.8%
0.0
Q3 6:54
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Nana Burris for 11 yds to the ARST 38
12.0%
+0.2
Q3 6:09
Jackson Waller punt for 42 yds
12.0%
0.0
ISU · Drive 14INT · 7 plays · 53 yds
Q3 6:04
Abu Sama III run for 44 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST down
9.6%
-2.3
Q3 5:47
Rocco Becht pass complete to Abu Sama III for 5 yds to the ARST 31
9.0%
-0.6
Q3 5:13
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the ARST 27
9.0%
0.0
Q3 4:36
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the ARST 25 for a 1ST down
9.7%
+0.6
Q3 4:00
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 27
9.8%
+0.1
Q3 3:26
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Tyler Moore
9.8%
0.0
Q3 3:25
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Benjamin Brahmer, broken up by AG McGhee
9.8%
0.0
ARST · Drive 15TD · 18 plays · 85 yds
Q3 3:19
Devin Spencer run for no gain to the ARST 15 Arkansas State Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the ARST 10
13.6%
+3.8
Q3 3:03
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 13 yds to the ARST 23
13.6%
0.0
Q3 2:38
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ARST 23 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Devin Spencer) to the ARST 13
14.4%
+0.8
Q3 2:21
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 12 yds to the ARST 25 for a 1ST down
14.4%
0.0
Q3 2:04
Kenyon Clay run for 10 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST down
14.4%
0.0
Q3 1:28
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ARST 41
13.5%
-0.9
Q3 0:50
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 39
13.5%
0.0
Q3 0:12
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 12 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST down
13.5%
0.0
Q4 14:58
Devin Spencer run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line
14.5%
+1.0
Q4 14:17
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 15 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST down
14.3%
-0.2
Q4 13:53
Jaylen Raynor sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ISU 42 Arkansas State Penalty, intentional grounding (Jaylen Raynor) to the ISU 42
14.9%
+0.6
Q4 13:47
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 35 yds to the ISU 7 for a 1ST down
14.9%
0.0
Q4 13:05
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Jeremiah Cooper
14.9%
0.0
Q4 12:59
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ISU 2
14.9%
0.0
Q4 12:23
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for no gain to the ISU 2 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Jaylen Bonelli) to the ISU 17
16.9%
+2.1
Q4 12:19
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Wil Saxton) to the ISU 26
16.9%
0.0
Q4 12:11
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 3 yds to the ISU 23
16.9%
0.0
Q4 11:53
Clune Van Andel 40 Yd Field Goal
16.7%
-0.2
ISU · Drive 16TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q4 11:53
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
32.2%
+15.5
Q4 11:51
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 4 yds to the ISU 29
24.7%
-7.5
Q4 11:19
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ISU 32
24.7%
0.0
Q4 10:37
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 3 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST down
24.7%
0.0
Q4 10:06
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 6 yds to the ISU 41
24.7%
0.0
Q4 9:28
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 44 yds to the ARST 15 for a 1ST down
26.8%
+2.2
Q4 9:09
Carson Hansen run for 6 yds to the ARST 9
25.7%
-1.1
Q4 8:46
Abu Sama III run for no gain Iowa State Penalty, Offensive holding (James Neal III) to the ARST 19
26.9%
+1.2
Q4 8:42
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett Eskildsen for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Trenton Alan Yowe) to the ARST 4 for a 1ST down
26.9%
0.0
Q4 8:34
Abu Sama III 4 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)
2.3%
-24.6
ARST · Drive 17INT · 3 plays · 10 yds
Q4 8:34
Chase Smith kickoff for 61 yds , Chauncy Cobb return for 23 yds to the ARST 27
2.2%
-0.1
Q4 8:27
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 10 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST down
3.3%
+1.0
Q4 7:59
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Tre Bell return for no gain to the ISU 8
3.5%
+0.2
ISU · Drive 18TD · 5 plays · 92 yds
Q4 7:50
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ISU 13
2.1%
-1.4
Q4 7:04
Abu Sama III run for no gain Iowa State Penalty, Offensive holding (Cooper Alexander) to the ISU 7
2.0%
-0.1
Q4 6:54
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Dominic Overby, broken up by Trenton Alan Yowe
2.0%
0.0
Q4 6:47
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase Sowell
2.1%
+0.1
Q4 6:40
Tyler Perkins punt for 42 yds
2.1%
0.0
ARST · Drive 19DOWNS · 8 plays · 26 yds
Q4 6:33
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 8 yds to the ISU 41
3.2%
+1.0
Q4 6:15
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST down
3.3%
+0.1
Q4 5:39
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ISU 33
3.3%
0.0
Q4 5:12
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST down
3.3%
0.0
Q4 4:45
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli
3.3%
0.0
Q4 4:40
Devin Spencer run for 5 yds to the ISU 23
3.3%
0.0
Q4 4:02
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker
3.3%
0.0
Q4 3:52
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli
3.3%
0.0
ISU · Drive 20Uncategorized · 9 plays · 58 yds
Q4 3:45
Carson Hansen run for 13 yds to the ISU 36 for a 1ST down
1.6%
-1.6
Q4 3:00
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ISU 41
1.7%
0.0
Q4 2:17
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the ISU 45
1.7%
0.0
Q4 1:58
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the ISU 46 for a 1ST down
1.5%
-0.1
Q4 1:56
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the ISU 48
1.5%
0.0
Q4 1:52
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ARST 49
1.5%
0.0
Q4 1:07
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 31 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST down
1.5%
0.0
Q4 0:47
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 19
1.5%
0.0
Q4 0:17
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 19
1.5%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:34
Abu Sama III 4 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)
-24.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:53
Clayton Amaya kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+15.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:38
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 14 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST down
-9.9