Try the model
ARST

Arkansas State 15 at South Alabama 14

USA
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 14, 2025 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Jaylen Raynor run for 7 yds to the USA 26 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsDefense timeoutsPregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 108Offense timeouts−16.5Defense timeouts−16.0Pregame prior+4.2Home team on offense+14.3Time remaining+4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 10:43: Clune Van Andel 37 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +6.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q3 1:34: PJ Martin run for 27 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK) — USA win probability +1.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. PUNT · Q4 8:31: Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 41 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 10 yds to the USA 17 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Reed Linder) to the USA 48 — USA win probability +19.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:51: Hunter Summers 6 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ARST win probability +16.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · Q4 7:51: Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers — ARST win probability +33.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 12:34ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:41USA 4th & 16 at USA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:38ARST 4th & 7 at USA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:16ARST 4th & 17 at USA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:40ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:17USA 4th & 7 at USA 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:02ARST 4th & 7 at USA 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:54USA 4th & 12 at USA 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:55ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:38USA 4th & 3 at USA 12, up 4
    Close callPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:36ARST 4th & 1 at USA 49, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:40USA 4th & 14 at USA 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:40ARST 4th & 1 at USA 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    30.2%−1.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:57USA 4th & 4 at USA 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00ARST 4th & 2 at USA 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−1.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:43ARST 4th & 3 at USA 19, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%−0.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−4.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 12:12ARST 4th & 7 at USA 37, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q3 12:12ARST 4th & 10 at USA 10, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−8.5
    average punt
  19. Q3 3:35USA 4th & 6 at USA 47, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:31USA 4th & 28 at USA 7, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−5.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:51USA 4th & 28 at ARST 49, down 4
    Numbers favored punt by 4.6 ptsWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%−4.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.6%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:00USA 4th & 3 at ARST 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−0.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−15.5
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:50USA 4th & 11 at ARST 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−3.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−19.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:50USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 7:51ARST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    34.9%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:2533% → 36%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 7 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
66.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 31Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
65.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 15 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
65.3%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 45Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+4
64.7%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
63.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers, broken up by Jayvon HendersonSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
63.7%
Jackson Waller punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:4664% → 59%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
63.5%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 6 yds to the USA 19Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+5
63.1%
Bishop Davenport run for 5 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
62.3%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 3 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
61.4%
PJ Martin run for 3 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-12
60.4%
Bishop Davenport sacked by Demarcus Hendricks for a loss of 12 yards to the USA 18Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 16
OWN 18
+3
59.1%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 50 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 3 yds to the ARST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1541% → 43%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
59.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+17
58.1%
Devin Spencer run for 17 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
57.8%
Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
57.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jabari BushSimilar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
57.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy CobbSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 7
OPP 38
-10
57.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jordan Smart for no gain to the USA 38 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Noah Smith) to the USA 48Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 17
OPP 48
+23
57.2%
Jackson Waller punt for 33 yds Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive holding (Josh Stone) to the USA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2057% → 55%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
56.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 29Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+39
54.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 24 yds to the ARST 47 Arkansas State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (AG McGhee) to the ARST 32Similar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
56.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 9 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+4
55.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the ARST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
55.2%
PJ Martin run for 5 yds to the ARST 14Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
54.7%
PJ Martin run for 3 yds to the ARST 11Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-10
53.9%
PJ Martin run for no gain to the ARST 11 South Alabama Penalty, Offensive holding (Amaury Wiggins) to the ARST 21Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+12
53.4%
Bishop Davenport run for 12 yds to the ARST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
54.7%
Kentrel Bullock 9 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0244% → 47%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-6
55.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for a loss of 6 yards to the ARST 13Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 16
OWN 13
-7
54.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 12 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Mason Myers) to the ARST 7Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 22
OWN 7
+6
55.1%
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the ARST 13Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 16
OWN 13
+13
53.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 13 yds to the ARST 26Similar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+1
53.0%
Jackson Waller punt for 55 yds , Devin Voisin returns for 1 yd to the USA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1548% → 46%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
48.2%
South Alabama Penalty, false start (Jordan Davis) to the USA 15Similar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-7
47.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for no gain to the USA 15 South Alabama Penalty, Offensive holding (Jeremy Scott) to the USA 8Similar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 22
OWN 8
0
47.0%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 22
OWN 8
+13
46.9%
Keenan Phillips run for 13 yds to the USA 21Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+2
46.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Keenan Phillips for 2 yds to the USA 23Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
45.9%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:1449% → 49%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
50.7%
Devin Spencer run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 46Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
50.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter SummersSimilar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+21
50.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST down South Alabama Penalty, roughing passer (Tre'Mon Henry) to the USA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
49.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker for a 1ST down South Alabama Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Damyrion Darby) to the USA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
49.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 4 yards to the USA 14Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
49.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jabari BushSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+7
49.3%
Kenyon Clay run for 7 yds to the USA 7Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
50.9%
Clune Van Andel 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:0847% → 44%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the USA 25Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
47.3%
South Alabama Penalty, false start (Amaury Wiggins) to the USA 20Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-3
47.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 17Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+6
46.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 6 yds to the USA 23Similar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+1
44.2%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 52 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 1 yd to the ARST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5952% → 52%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
48.3%
Kenyon Clay run for 9 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+2
47.3%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
47.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 4 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
47.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
46.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Ezra Burgess, broken up by Tirrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
48.5%
Jackson Waller punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1746% → 43%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-3
46.3%
South Alabama Penalty, false start (Kenton Jerido) to the USA 2Similar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 13
OWN 2
+6
46.3%
PJ Martin run for 6 yds to the USA 8Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+4
46.1%
PJ Martin run for 4 yds to the USA 12Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 3
OWN 12
0
45.4%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin Voisin, broken up by Cody SiglerSimilar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 3
OWN 12
+7
43.3%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 53 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 7 yds to the ARST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0254% → 55%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
46.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
45.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ARST 49Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
45.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
45.0%
Jackson Waller punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 2:5643% → 30%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
43.4%
Keenan Phillips run for no gain to the USA 20Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
43.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jeremy Scott for 9 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
42.9%
Keenan Phillips run for 3 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
43.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jeremy Scott for 6 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-5
45.3%
South Alabama Penalty, false start (Kenton Jerido) to the USA 33Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-10
43.4%
Keenan Phillips run for no gain to the USA 33 South Alabama Penalty, Offensive holding (Ethan Hubbard) to the USA 23Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 19
OWN 23
-2
31.9%
Keenan Phillips run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 21Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 21
OWN 21
+7
31.0%
Keenan Phillips run for 7 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 14
OWN 28
+6
29.8%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 39 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 6 yds to the ARST 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · -4 yds · 1:0967% → 68%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
33.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 6 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
32.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jabari Bush for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
50
+8
31.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
31.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
31.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the USA 41Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
32.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
30.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
30.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers, broken up by Jayvon HendersonSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+4
31.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 4 yds to the USA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:0344% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 1 yd to the USA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
44.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for no gain to the USA 26 South Alabama Penalty, Offensive holding (Devin Voisin) to the USA 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+4
44.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
43.0%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Miller McCrumby Arkansas State Penalty, off-side (Gavin Ransaw) to the USA 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Rod Gibbs for 6 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
42.5%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 50 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 2 yds to the ARST 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 19:1740% → 42%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
60.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter SummersSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 5 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
62.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 5 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
62.6%
Devin Spencer run for 12 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
61.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 9 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
59.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
59.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for a loss of 6 yards to the USA 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+1
62.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the USA 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+13
64.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 13 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+7
65.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 7 yds to the USA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
61.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli, broken up by Brian DillardSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
61.9%
Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the USA 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+4
63.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 4 yds to the USA 19Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
57.8%
Clune Van Andel 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16MISSED FG
17 plays · 69 yds · 6:1648% → 51%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
52.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
52.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter SummersSimilar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+8
53.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 8 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+29
50.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 29 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
47.2%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the USA 40Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
47.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 9 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-5
47.6%
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Mason Myers) to the USA 36Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-1
47.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 37Similar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+8
49.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the USA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
47.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 12 yds to the USA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
47.1%
Devin Spencer run for 6 yds to the USA 11Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+8
47.1%
Devin Spencer run for 8 yds to the USA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
47.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Nehemiah ChandlerSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
47.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 5Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
48.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter SummersSimilar
Q3 12:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
51.1%
Clune Van Andel 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
49.0%
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Cameron Ambrose) to the USA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 8:3745% → 39%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
45.2%
Bishop Davenport run for 2 yds to the USA 22Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
44.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 9 yds to the USA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
45.5%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Kentrel BullockSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
45.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Micah Woods for 5 yds to the USA 36Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+7
45.3%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Rod Gibbs for 7 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
47.4%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
47.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
46.2%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Kentrel BullockSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
39.3%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:5042% → 46%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
42.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 13 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
43.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 7 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+4
41.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to PJ Martin for 4 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
44.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Micah Woods for 7 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+27
46.4%
PJ Martin run for 27 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -18 yds · 2:1260% → 77%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
59.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 23Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
59.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 5 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
58.1%
South Alabama Penalty, false start (Rod Gibbs) to the USA 23Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-16
57.9%
Bishop Davenport sacked by Ethan Hassler for a loss of 16 yards to the USA 7 Bishop Davenport fumbled, recovered by USA Bishop Davenport , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 28
OWN 7
+10
77.2%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 41 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 10 yds to the USA 17 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Reed Linder) to the USA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:4040% → 90%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+42
60.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 42 yds to the USA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
43.5%
Hunter Summers 6 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
10.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter SummersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22MISSED FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 6:0118% → 8%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
18.5%
PJ Martin run for 6 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
18.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin Voisin for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, roughing passer (Demarcus Hendricks) to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
21.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+11
22.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 11 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
25.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-2
25.4%
Bishop Davenport run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+7
22.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 13
OPP 34
-15
18.8%
South Alabama Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the ARST 49Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 28
OPP 49
+39
17.3%
Keenan Phillips run for 39 yds to the ARST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
25.4%
Keenan Phillips run for no gain to the ARST 10 South Alabama Penalty, Offensive holding (Amaury Wiggins) to the ARST 20Similar
Q4 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
0
24.6%
Keenan Phillips run for no gain to the ARST 20Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
0
24.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the ARST 20Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+9
21.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 9 yds to the ARST 11Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 3
OPP 24
-15
10.1%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Jeremy Scott South Alabama Penalty, off-side (Simeon Mitchell) to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
8.3%
Hamilton DiBoyan 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 1:4797% → 99%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
3.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 9 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+8
3.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 8 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
2.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 14 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
2.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 9 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+6
2.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 6 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
1.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Nehemiah ChandlerSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
1.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
1.7%
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the USA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
1.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the USA 20Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+38
1.4%
Clune Van Andel 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:51
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers
-33.1
PUNT · Q4 8:31
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 41 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 10 yds to the USA 17 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Reed Linder) to the USA 48
+19.3
TD · Q4 7:51
Hunter Summers 6 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com