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ARST

Arkansas State 16 at UL Monroe 28

ULM
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:20 · Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsDefense timeoutsHome team on offenseTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTwo-minute warning
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 156Offense timeouts−21.5Defense timeouts−18.8Home team on offense+7.2Time remaining+14.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Two-minute warning−15.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 2:35: Clune Van Andel 51 Yd Field Goal — ULM win probability +6.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q2 6:28: Julian Nixon 8 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Luke Stagg Kick) — ULM win probability +3.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q2 0:46: Jake Godfrey 37 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Luke Stagg Kick) — ULM win probability +9.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. FG · Q4 12:09: Clune Van Andel 30 Yd Field Goal — ARST win probability +7.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · Q3 5:44: Clune Van Andel 43 Yd Field Goal — ULM win probability +3.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 10:42ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:56ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:04ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:58ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 20, down 7
    Close callPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:35ARST 4th & 6 at ULM 33, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:39ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:14ARST 4th & 5 at ULM 41, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.1%−0.6
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%
    32% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:02ARST 4th & 7 at ULM 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:09ARST 4th & 8 at ULM 13, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−2.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−13.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:53ARST 4th & 3 at ULM 43, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−3.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:53ARST 4th & 6 at ULM 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:44ARST 4th & 17 at ULM 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−3.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−10.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:24ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 31, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−1.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:22ARST 4th & 4 at ULM 12, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 12.9 ptsWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%−12.9
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−25.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:20ARST 4th & 8 at ULM 8, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 19.1 ptsWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%−19.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    50.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−38.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:34ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:28ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:46ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2651% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
50.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 6 yds to the ULM 31 UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive holding (Rico Powers Jr.) to the ULM 21Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
50.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 5 yds to the ULM 26Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-32
48.5%
Brandon Greil 32 Yd Interception Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:5249% → 45%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.6%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 6 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
47.8%
Aidan Armenta run for 2 yds to the ULM 33Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
46.7%
Braylon McReynolds run for 6 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
45.9%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the ULM 40Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
44.1%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Tyler GriffinSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
43.8%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nate Sullivan Jr., broken up by AG McGheeSimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+19
45.0%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARST 40 , Aaron Blancas returns for 19 yds to the ARST 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
43.4%
Corey Rucker run for 4 yds to the ARST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5345% → 41%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
44.7%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jonathan BibbsSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
44.8%
Aidan Armenta run for 1 yd to the ULM 49Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
43.6%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jake GodfreySimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
41.2%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:4560% → 61%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
40.5%
Devin Spencer run for 6 yds to the ARST 16Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+30
41.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 30 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
40.1%
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
39.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
39.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Devin SpencerSimilar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
39.3%
Jackson Waller punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0038% → 35%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
38.4%
Braylon McReynolds run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 10Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+12
37.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Brandon Buckhaulter for 12 yds to the ULM 22Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 1
OWN 22
-2
36.1%
Hunter Herring run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 20Similar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
34.9%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:1664% → 61%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
35.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 15 yds to the ULM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
34.3%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the ULM 47Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
33.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by D'Arco Perkins-McAllisterSimilar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+10
33.5%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Noah Flemmings for 0 yards to the ULM 47 for a 1ST down UL Monroe Penalty, Defensive holding (Kamrin Canterbury) to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
33.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ULM 33Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
32.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter SummersSimilar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
32.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen BonelliSimilar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+51
39.3%
Clune Van Andel 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5632% → 29%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.6%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 6 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
31.3%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Brandon Buckhaulter for 14 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
30.9%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 44Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
29.8%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jake GodfreySimilar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
29.2%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Rico Powers Jr., broken up by Cody SiglerSimilar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
28.8%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:5364% → 65%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
36.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 4 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+31
35.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 31 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
34.8%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ULM 37Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-13
34.3%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Dylan Howell for a loss of 13 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 19
50
-13
34.3%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Kevontay Wells for a loss of 13 yards to the ARST 37Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 32
OWN 37
+55
34.7%
Jackson Waller punt for 46 yds UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive holding (Seidrion Langston) to the ULM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 14:5265% → 89%
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
35.0%
Clune Van Andel 23 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
12.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the ULM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
11.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
11.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 5 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
11.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ULM 41Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+21
11.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 21 yds to the ULM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
10.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by D'Arco Perkins-McAllister for a 1ST down UL Monroe Penalty, Defensive pass interference (D'Arco Perkins-McAllister) to the ULM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 6:0025% → 28%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+24
25.2%
Braylon McReynolds run for 24 yds to the ULM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
24.5%
Braylon McReynolds run for 4 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+16
24.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Tyler Griffin for 16 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
24.3%
Aidan Armenta run for 4 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
23.9%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 3 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+9
23.2%
Aidan Armenta run for 9 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
23.4%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Brandon BuckhaulterSimilar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
23.3%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Rico Powers Jr.Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+19
24.5%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Dorian Lewis for 6 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Trenton Alan Yowe) to the ARST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
25.8%
Aidan Armenta run for 1 yd to the ARST 12Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
25.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Rico Powers Jr. for 4 yds to the ARST 8Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
28.4%
Julian Nixon 8 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Luke Stagg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:2074% → 77%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
25.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy CobbSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
26.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 5 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+8
25.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
23.8%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the ARST 40Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+21
23.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 21 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
22.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jabari Bush for 4 yds to the ULM 35Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-1
22.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 36Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
21.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jabari Bush, broken up by Kamrin CanterburySimilar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
22.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli, broken up by David Godsey Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:0725% → 27%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
24.5%
Aidan Armenta run for 3 yds to the ULM 39Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
25.1%
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the ULM 42Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
16.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 6 yds to the ULM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
16.5%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 8
50
+13
16.6%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Tyler Griffin for 13 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
26.6%
Jake Godfrey 37 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Luke Stagg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0759% → 60%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
41.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
39.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 3 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+5
39.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
40.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 45 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ULM Noah Flemmings Raynor,Jaylen rush middle for 3 yards to the ASU45, fumble by Raynor,Jaylen recovered by ULM Flemmings,Noah, Flemmings,Noah rush (Raynor,Jaylen).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 17:5162% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
38.5%
Devin Spencer run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 32Similar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
46.8%
Devin Spencer run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 33Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-3
48.0%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jaeden Calender for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 30Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+2
49.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker for a 1ST down UL Monroe Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Daniel Knudsen) to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
47.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
50
+6
43.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli for a 1ST down UL Monroe Penalty, Defensive pass interference (D'Arco Perkins-McAllister) to the ULM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
43.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+11
42.8%
Devin Spencer run for 11 yds to the ULM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+11
45.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 11 yds to the ULM 21Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+6
46.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Aaron Blancas for 6 yds Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST Tyler Fortenberry for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-6
48.6%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Dylan Howell for a loss of 6 yards to the ULM 21Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 16
OPP 21
0
51.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Kenyon ClaySimilar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 16
OPP 21
+8
55.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jabari Bush for 8 yds to the ULM 13Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
48.0%
Clune Van Andel 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 2:2132% → 33%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
32.1%
Braylon McReynolds run for no gain to the ARST 45Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
31.9%
Braylon McReynolds run for 8 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+19
31.3%
Brandon Buckhaulter run for 19 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
32.9%
Braylon McReynolds run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Stagg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17FG
13 plays · 25 yds · 4:0561% → 56%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
50
+2
39.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 2 yds to the ULM 48Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
39.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
39.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli, broken up by David Godsey Jr.Similar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+5
38.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 5 yds to the ULM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
33.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen BonelliSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
33.7%
Corey Rucker run for 4 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
38.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jabari BushSimilar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+16
40.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 16 yds to the ULM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
36.0%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ULM 14Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-10
35.9%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by James Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the ULM 24Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 16
OPP 24
-1
40.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jabari Bush for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 25Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 17
OPP 25
+43
44.2%
Clune Van Andel 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1922% → 22%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Julian Nixon for 7 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
22.8%
UL Monroe Penalty, false start (Jay Mickle) to the ULM 27Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
24.0%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the ULM 28Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
23.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 3 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
22.4%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 36 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 1 yd to the ARST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:3236% → 65%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
36.1%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 11 yds to the ULM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
42.3%
Tyrell Reed Jr. run for 2 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-5
42.7%
UL Monroe Penalty, delay of game (Aidan Armenta) to the ULM 33Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 13
OWN 33
-5
40.0%
UL Monroe Penalty, false start (Kaliem Croswell) to the ULM 28Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+21
40.9%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Rico Powers Jr. for 21 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
48.0%
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
48.4%
Braylon McReynolds run for 6 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
47.1%
Hunter Herring run for 2 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
55.6%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 18 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
65.0%
Jake Godfrey run for 20 yds to the ARST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.1%
Zach Palmer-Smith 2 Yd Run (Luke Stagg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20DOWNS
17 plays · 62 yds · 4:1639% → 57%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
61.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 9 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
57.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy CobbSimilar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
59.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen Bonelli, broken up by D'Arco Perkins-McAllisterSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
62.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jabari Bush Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Chauncy Cobb) to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+23
67.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 23 yds to the ULM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
63.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 13 yds to the ULM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
64.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the ULM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
64.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Devin Spencer for 2 yds to the ULM 16Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+6
64.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds to the ULM 10Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
-2
66.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 12 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen RaynorSimilar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+5
70.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ULM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
64.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
34.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 4 yds to the ULM 3Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
37.3%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by D'Arco Perkins-McAllister for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 8Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
43.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21Uncategorized
4 plays · 56 yds · 0:3453% → 70%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
53.1%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 3 yds to the ULM 16Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-3
52.8%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 13Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+56
51.2%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 56 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
69.5%
Aidan Armenta run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+30.5
TD · Q2 0:46
Jake Godfrey 37 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Luke Stagg Kick)
+9.9
FG · Q4 12:09
Clune Van Andel 30 Yd Field Goal
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com