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SEMO

Southeast Missouri State 24 at Arkansas State 42

ARST
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadSEMO aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreSEMO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.3ARST 99.7%Jackson Waller punt for 52 yds , KamRobinson returns for 2 yds SoutheastMissouri State Penalty, Offensiveholding (Temidayo Odugbemi) to theSEMO 12AWAY 24 - HOME 49 · Q4 1:23
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:23 · Jackson Waller punt for 52 yds , Kam Robinson returns for 2 yds Southeast Missouri State Penalty, Offensive holding (Temidayo Odugbemi) to the SEMO 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 167Pregame prior+1.1Home team on offense+34.8Offense timeouts−15.8Defense timeouts−17.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+19.3Score differential+21.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:13: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 45 yds to the SEMO 30 for a 1ST down Southeast Missouri State Penalty, Defensive holding (Justus Johnson) to the SEMO 30 for a 1ST down — SEMO win probability +4.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q1 9:18: Brandon Epton Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD (Justin Keller KICK) — SEMO win probability +4.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q2 9:05: Devin Spencer run for 43 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +9.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · Q2 0:35: Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +10.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:23: Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Cam Pedro for 31 yds for a TD (Justin Keller KICK) — SEMO win probability +4.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: SEMO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SEMO made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00SEMO 4th & 3 at ARST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:03SEMO 4th & 6 at ARST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:13ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:03ARST 4th & 2 at SEMO 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:43SEMO 4th & 13 at SEMO 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:18ARST 4th & 1 at SEMO 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%−1.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:48SEMO 4th & 9 at SEMO 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:37ARST 4th & 1 at SEMO 4, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    85.6%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:45SEMO 4th & 5 at SEMO 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:16SEMO 4th & 3 at ARST 45, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:16SEMO 4th & 4 at ARST 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:18SEMO 4th & 12 at SEMO 23, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:43ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 34, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:23ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 28, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SEMO made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q2 10:13ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:05ARST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:35ARST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:56ARST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:51SEMO Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:23SEMO Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 5:4789% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy CobbSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Justus JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
89.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for no gain to the SEMO 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+27
89.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 27 yds to the SEMO 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
89.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 1 yd to the SEMO 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 29
-5
89.2%
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Chauncy Cobb) to the SEMO 34Similar
Q1 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
87.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 7 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+45
83.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 45 yds to the SEMO 30 for a 1ST down Southeast Missouri State Penalty, Defensive holding (Justus Johnson) to the SEMO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 2FG
19 plays · 68 yds · 15:5711% → 31%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+6
89.2%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Anthony Westervelt for 6 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
81.7%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 4 yds to the SEMO 14Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
81.7%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 3 yds to the SEMO 17Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+4
81.9%
Patrick Heitert run for 4 yds to the SEMO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
81.7%
Payton Brown run for 8 yds to the SEMO 29Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
81.5%
Jax Leatherwood pass incomplete to Cam PedroSimilar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+2
81.7%
Payton Brown run for 2 yds to the SEMO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
81.6%
Payton Brown run for 7 yds to the SEMO 38Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
81.3%
Jax Leatherwood pass incomplete to Kalvin GilbertSimilar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+7
81.5%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Kam Robinson for 7 yds to the SEMO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
81.3%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Jamauri Chislom for 6 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+10
81.2%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Donnie Cheers for 10 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
81.2%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
81.2%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 4 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+1
81.4%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 1 yd to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
70.4%
Jax Leatherwood pass incomplete to Jamauri ChislomSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
70.5%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Anthony Westervelt for 4 yds to the ARST 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
70.9%
Jax Leatherwood pass incomplete to Brandon Epton Jr.Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
69.5%
Justin Keller 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4713% → 17%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.5%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 5 yds to the SEMO 30Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
87.4%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Cam Pedro for 5 yds to the SEMO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.4%
Jax Leatherwood pass incomplete to Brandon Epton Jr.Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
87.5%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Donnie Cheers for 14 yds to the SEMO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
87.4%
Jax Leatherwood run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 9
50
+24
87.4%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Anthony Westervelt for 24 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
87.4%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Kam Robinson for 7 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+12
87.4%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 12 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
87.4%
Payton Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 8Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
83.3%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD (Justin Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0083% → 81%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
83.2%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
83.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the ARST 39Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+3
83.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 1
OWN 42
-5
83.2%
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Reed Linder) to the ARST 37Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+53
80.7%
Jackson Waller punt for 43 yds Southeast Missouri State Penalty, Offensive holding (Anthony Westervelt) to the SEMO 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 5END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
69.5%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:5069% → 71%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
68.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
50
+11
70.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 11 yds to the SEMO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
70.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 4 yds to the SEMO 35Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+8
71.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the SEMO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
71.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the SEMO 23Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+3
71.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 3 yds to the SEMO 20Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+1
70.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the SEMO 19Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+15
70.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers, broken up by Adrian Patterson for a 1ST down Southeast Missouri State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Adrian Patterson) to the SEMO 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 4 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:5428% → 31%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.6%
Payton Brown run for 8 yds to the SEMO 33Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
70.8%
Jax Leatherwood pass incomplete to Donnie Cheers for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Trenton Alan Yowe) to the SEMO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
70.3%
Payton Brown run for no gain to the SEMO 48 Southeast Missouri State Penalty, Offensive holding (Wilbert Phillips) to the SEMO 38Similar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+5
69.3%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Jamauri Chislom for 5 yds Jax Leatherwood fumbled, recovered by ARST Demarcus HendricksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:1469% → 79%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
69.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+43
79.1%
Devin Spencer run for 43 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2224% → 22%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.2%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 1 yd to the SEMO 26Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
76.2%
Jax Leatherwood pass incomplete to Andrew CiveySimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
76.6%
Jax Leatherwood sacked by Cody Sigler for a loss of 4 yards to the SEMO 22Similar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+9
78.2%
Ryan Kingston punt for 43 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 9 yds to the ARST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2577% → 75%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
77.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 7 yds to the SEMO 49Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
77.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jaylen BonelliSimilar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+8
76.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Nana Burris for 8 yds to the SEMO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
77.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the SEMO 42Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+10
77.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 10 yds to the SEMO 32Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
77.3%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the SEMO 32Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
75.3%
Devin Spencer run for no gain to the SEMO 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3025% → 24%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
75.0%
Payton Brown run for 2 yds to the SEMO 34Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-1
75.1%
Payton Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the SEMO 33Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
75.9%
Jax Leatherwood pass incomplete to Jamauri Chislom, broken up by Brandon GreilSimilar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
76.4%
Ryan Kingston punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:1373% → 74%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
72.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+13
72.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 13 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
73.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 3 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+39
73.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 39 yds to the SEMO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
73.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 5 yds to the SEMO 8Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
64.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Landon SylvieSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+4
63.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the SEMO 4Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+2
61.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 2 yds to the SEMO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
63.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers, broken up by Justus Johnson for a 1ST down Southeast Missouri State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Justus Johnson) to the SEMO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
63.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 1 yard to the SEMO 3Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1510% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.0%
Payton Brown run for 7 yds to the SEMO 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
88.5%
Jax Leatherwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the SEMO 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
88.9%
Jax Leatherwood pass incomplete to Cam PedroSimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+14
89.2%
Ryan Kingston punt for 48 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for 14 yds to the ARST 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 14DOWNS
15 plays · 59 yds · 15:444% → 1%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+4
96.1%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 4 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
98.3%
Southeast Missouri State Penalty, false start (Rashad Turner) to the SEMO 4Similar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 15
OWN 4
+7
98.0%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 7 yds to the SEMO 11Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+4
98.4%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Bryson Burns for 4 yds to the SEMO 15Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+9
98.4%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Andrew Civey for 9 yds to the SEMO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
98.4%
Jax Leatherwood run for 3 yds to the SEMO 27Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+7
98.4%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 7 yds to the SEMO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
98.3%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Kam Robinson for 14 yds to the SEMO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
98.3%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 8
50
0
98.3%
Jax Leatherwood pass incomplete to Donnie CheersSimilar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 8
50
+5
98.4%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Payton Brown for 5 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+4
98.3%
Payton Brown run for 4 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
98.3%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Cam Pedro for 1 yd to the ARST 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+1
99.2%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 1 yd to the ARST 35Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+3
99.3%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Jamauri Chislom for 3 yds to the ARST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 1:1797% → 98%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+50
96.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 50 yds to the SEMO 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
97.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the SEMO 9Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
98.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 9 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:102% → 2%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Cam Pedro for no gain to the SEMO 25Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.8%
Cam Pedro run for 4 yds to the SEMO 29Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
97.8%
Jax Leatherwood sacked by Cody Sigler and Ethan Hassler for a loss of 6 yards to the SEMO 23Similar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
97.6%
Ryan Kingston punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17FUMBLE
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:0298% → 99%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
98.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the ARST 31Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+10
98.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 10 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
98.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jordan Smart for 3 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+7
98.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 7 yds to the SEMO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
98.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the SEMO 45Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+12
98.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 12 yds to the SEMO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
98.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the SEMO 29Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
98.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Tyler LittleSimilar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+15
98.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Justus Johnson for a 1ST down Southeast Missouri State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Justus Johnson) to the SEMO 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
98.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 11 yds to the SEMO 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
98.6%
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Hunter Summers) to the SEMO 8Similar
Q3 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
99.4%
Devin Spencer run for a loss of 1 yard to the SEMO 9 Devin Spencer fumbled, recovered by SEMO Nasim CairoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 5:20100% → 100%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
99.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 13 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
99.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the ARST 45 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Tristian Smith) to the ARST 35Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+4
99.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+28
99.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Little for 28 yds to the SEMO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the SEMO 29Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+8
99.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 8 yds to the SEMO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
99.7%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 4 yards to the SEMO 25Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+13
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 13 yds to the SEMO 12Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
99.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the SEMO 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 10 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Cam Pedro for 15 yds to the SEMO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Anthony Westervelt for no gain to the SEMO 40Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Jax Leatherwood pass incomplete to Andrew CiveySimilar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+60
99.7%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Donnie Cheers for 60 yds for a TD (Justin Keller KICK) (Justin Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 4:08100% → 100%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
99.9%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 31 fumbled, recovered by ARST Aleric WatsonSimilar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 15
OWN 31
-10
99.9%
Josh Flowers run for 5 yds to the ARST 36 Arkansas State Penalty, personal foul (Cedric Hawkins) to the ARST 21Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 25
OWN 21
+8
99.8%
Josh Flowers run for 8 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+5
99.8%
Southeast Missouri State Penalty, off-side (Robert Dover) to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Jackson Waller punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 21TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:200% → 5%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.8%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Cam Pedro for 2 yds to the SEMO 20Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+16
99.8%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Anthony Westervelt for 16 yds to the SEMO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
99.8%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Donnie Cheers for 12 yds to the SEMO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
99.8%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Kam Robinson for 6 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, personal foul (Braden Jackson) to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.8%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Kam Robinson for 6 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 4
OPP 25
-6
99.8%
Jax Leatherwood sacked by Drew Collins for a loss of 6 yards to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+31
95.4%
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Cam Pedro for 31 yds for a TD (Justin Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:0098% → 100%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.4%
Kameron Thomas run for 9 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-4
98.4%
Kameron Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 30Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
98.5%
Kameron Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 28 Kameron Thomas fumbled, recovered by ARSTSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.7%
Jackson Waller punt for 52 yds , Kam Robinson returns for 2 yds Southeast Missouri State Penalty, Offensive holding (Temidayo Odugbemi) to the SEMO 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 23Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.6%
Payton Brown run for 2 yds to the SEMO 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:35
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q2 9:05
Devin Spencer run for 43 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q4 1:23
Jax Leatherwood pass complete to Cam Pedro for 31 yds for a TD (Justin Keller KICK)
-4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com