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TXST

Texas State 30 at Arkansas State 31

ARST
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:25 · Jackson Waller punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsHome team on offenseTime remainingGarbage-time factor
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Pregame prior−15.3Offense timeouts−13.7Defense timeouts−13.7Home team on offense+7.6Time remaining+2.0Garbage-time factor+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:04: Jaylen Raynor 13 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick) — ARST win probability +3.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q4 6:40: Hunter Summers 5 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick) — ARST win probability +2.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:45: Lincoln Pare 4 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick) — TXST win probability +1.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · Q4 1:31: Jaylen Raynor run for 11 yds to the TXST 5 for a 1ST down — ARST win probability +1.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:00: Lincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Tyler Robles PAT failed) — TXST win probability +14.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:57ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:06ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:08TXST 4th & 7 at ARST 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:00TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:55ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:43TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−1.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:29ARST 4th & 20 at TXST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:48TXST 4th & 4 at ARST 13, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%−0.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:08ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:20TXST 4th & 6 at ARST 48, down 6
    Close callPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:25ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 46, up 6
    Close callPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:17TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−3.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:36ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−5.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:35TXST 4th & 3 at ARST 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    45.8%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−15.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:13ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−6.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:01TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:04ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5879% → 80%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.3%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 4 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
21.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 13 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
21.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
20.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 5 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+18
20.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 18 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
20.5%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
20.0%
Brad Jackson 24 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0320% → 19%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.0%
Devin Spencer run for 1 yd to the ARST 26Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
19.6%
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
19.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Tyler Fortenberry, broken up by Ryan NolanSimilar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
19.3%
Jackson Waller punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:4781% → 82%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
19.1%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
19.0%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 4 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-10
18.7%
Brad Jackson run for no gain to the TXST 48 Texas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Brock Riker) to the TXST 38Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+9
18.6%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 9 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 7
OWN 47
-5
18.3%
Texas State Penalty, false start (Malik Willis) to the TXST 42Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
18.3%
David Nunez punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:4819% → 16%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
18.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter Summers, broken up by Khamari TerrellSimilar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
18.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+7
18.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 7 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
17.5%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Devarrick Woods for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 19Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+2
17.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 21Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+6
16.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 6 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
16.3%
Jackson Waller punt for 46 yds , Beau Sparks returns for no gain to the TXST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:5083% → 85%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
16.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+8
16.4%
Beau Sparks run for 8 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
16.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TXST 41Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+9
15.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
50
0
15.3%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 10
50
+3
15.2%
Brad Jackson run for 3 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
14.9%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
15.1%
David Nunez punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:5715% → 18%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
14.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+24
14.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 24 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
14.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Hunter SummersSimilar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+33
14.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 33 yds to the TXST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
15.5%
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the TXST 13Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
15.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Terrence Cooks IISimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+13
18.3%
Jaylen Raynor 13 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0183% → 83%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TXST 26Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
16.7%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 26Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
16.8%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau Sparks, broken up by Avante DickersonSimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
17.1%
David Nunez punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5817% → 16%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
16.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the ARST 36Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
16.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
17.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Canden GroganSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
16.4%
Jackson Waller punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0183% → 83%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
16.7%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
16.7%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 1Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
16.9%
Texas State Penalty, false start (Chris Dawn Jr.) to the TXST 1Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
16.9%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q2 13:43
4TH & 10
OWN 1
0
17.1%
David Nunez punt for 44 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for no gain to the ARST 1 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Cedric Franklin) to the ARST 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:0417% → 17%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
17.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the TXST 49Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+25
17.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 25 yds to the TXST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
18.2%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the TXST 21Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
18.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the TXST 18Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-5
17.6%
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Noah Smith) to the TXST 23Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-11
17.5%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Michael Boudoin III for a loss of 11 yards to the TXST 34Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 20
OPP 34
+51
17.2%
Clune Van Andel 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4081% → 79%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.8%
Greg Burrell run for 1 yd to the TXST 26Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+24
19.9%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
50
+3
18.4%
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+14
18.4%
Greg Burrell run for 14 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
18.1%
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds Texas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Dorion Strawn) to the ARST 40Similar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 17
OPP 40
+3
18.9%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Ty Stamey for 3 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 14
OPP 37
0
18.9%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+18
19.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 18 yds to the ARST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
19.6%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 3 yds to the ARST 16Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+2
19.6%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 2 yds to the ARST 14Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+1
20.3%
Greg Burrell run for 1 yd to the ARST 13Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
21.3%
Tyler Robles 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:3923% → 22%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.7%
Devin Spencer run for 7 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
22.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
22.6%
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Wil Saxton) to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 15
OWN 31
-2
22.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+3
22.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 3 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+4
22.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 4 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
22.0%
Jackson Waller punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:4180% → 86%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
20.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Titus Lyons for 5 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
20.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+2
20.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
13.2%
Greg Burrell run for no gain to the TXST 48Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
13.6%
Texas State Penalty, false start (Ty Mims) to the TXST 43Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+5
14.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 5 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+4
14.3%
Brad Jackson run for 4 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
13.9%
David Nunez punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
14.8%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:2824% → 24%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
24.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 15 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
25.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
25.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 4 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
25.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy CobbSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
23.8%
Jackson Waller punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:0074% → 71%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
25.7%
Brad Jackson run for 4 yds to the TXST 20Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+7
27.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
27.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-10
26.1%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 33 Texas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Dorion Strawn) to the TXST 23Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 14
OWN 23
-10
27.2%
Brad Jackson run for no gain to the TXST 23 Texas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Dorion Strawn) to the TXST 13Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 24
OWN 13
+1
28.0%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 1 yd to the TXST 14Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 23
OWN 14
+11
29.6%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Greg Burrell for 11 yds to the TXST 25Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
29.4%
David Nunez punt for 43 yds , Aaron Blancas returns for no gain to the ARST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3425% → 22%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
25.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-5
25.9%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Bobby Crosby for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 27Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 15
OWN 27
-4
25.3%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Tymere Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 23Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 19
OWN 23
0
21.7%
Jackson Waller punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 4:0076% → 69%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
23.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
26.1%
Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
25.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
25.5%
Brad Jackson run for 8 yds to the ARST 38 Brad Jackson fumbled, recovered by TXST Brad Jackson Jackson,Brad rush left for 8 yards to the ASU38, fumble by Jackson,Brad recovered by TXS Jackson,Brad, Jackson,Brad rush (McGhee,AG).Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+15
25.4%
Beau Sparks run for no gain to the ARST 38 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (AG McGhee) to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
24.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 4 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+3
24.5%
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds to the ARST 16Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
26.6%
Greg Burrell run for no gain to the ARST 16Similar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 3
OPP 16
0
31.4%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the ARST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 4:1827% → 29%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
27.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
27.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+7
28.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for 7 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
31.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Fortenberry for no gain to the ARST 39 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Riley McGehee) to the ARST 29Similar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 20
OWN 29
-5
29.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for no gain to the ARST 29 Arkansas State Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the ARST 24Similar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 25
OWN 24
+5
29.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 5 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 20
OWN 29
-4
30.4%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Javis Mynatt for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 25Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 24
OWN 25
+5
29.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 5 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 19
OWN 30
0
29.3%
Jackson Waller punt for 49 yds , Beau Sparks returns for no gain to the TXST 30 Texas State Penalty, personal foul (Canden Grogan) to the TXST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2443% → 75%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 6 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
48.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for no gain to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
48.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
52.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 36Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+2
51.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+27
56.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 27 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
63.5%
Cedric Hawkins run for 16 yds to the TXST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
65.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the TXST 15Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
66.1%
Corey Rucker run for 4 yds to the TXST 11Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+6
72.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the TXST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
74.7%
Hunter Summers 5 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5336% → 32%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.5%
Brad Jackson run for 3 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+34
65.7%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 34 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
62.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 15 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
63.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ARST 18Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+9
69.1%
Brad Jackson run for 9 yds to the ARST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
69.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ARST 4Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.2%
Lincoln Pare 4 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:0875% → 78%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
75.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 7 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
80.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 4 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
85.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 28Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+14
86.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 14 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
77.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
77.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 14 yds to the TXST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
77.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Chauncy Cobb for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Ryan Nolan) to the TXST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
78.4%
Jaylen Raynor run for 11 yds to the TXST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:1448% → 62%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+63
52.1%
Brad Jackson run for 63 yds to the ARST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.6%
Lincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Tyler Robles PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:5276% → 75%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 9 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+27
78.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 27 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
79.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 9 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+14
75.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jabari Bush for 14 yds to the TXST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
75.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 12 yds to the TXST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.3%
Jaylen Raynor 4 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+24.7
TD · Q4 1:00
Lincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Tyler Robles PAT failed)
-14.5
TD · Q1 2:04
Jaylen Raynor 13 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com