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ULM

UL Monroe 14 at Arkansas State 28

ARST
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:49 · Luke Ferguson punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 195Pregame prior+1.1Home team on offense+33.2Score differential+23.8Garbage-time factor+13.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+9.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:51: Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +16.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:38: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 12 yds for a TD UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +10.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:21: Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 59 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK) — ULM win probability +13.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:08: Fredi Knighten run for 29 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +7.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:30: Brayle Brown pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 41 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK) — ULM win probability +4.5 pts (now 5%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ULM made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:17ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:34ARST 4th & 5 at ULM 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:07ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:19ARST 4th & 2 at ULM 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.3%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:41ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:41ARST 4th & 28 at ARST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:31ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:02ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:05ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:48ARST 4th & 20 at ULM 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:04ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:09ARST 4th & 10 at ULM 44, tied
    Close callWent for it · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%
    27% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 14:53ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 14:03ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−2.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 10:56ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q3 8:45ULM 4th & 11 at ARST 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:01ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 24, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:13ULM 4th & 1 at ARST 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:49ARST 4th & 4 at ULM 46, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ULM made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q3 8:51ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 1:38ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:21ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:08ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:13ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:30ULM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.5%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
73.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
73.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
73.5%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
73.5%
Luke Ferguson punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
73.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
73.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-2
73.1%
Pete Thomas sacked by Chris Stone for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
73.2%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+13
73.3%
Justin Manton punt for 44 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 13 yds to the ArkSt 48 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (N/A) to the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 53 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+37
72.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 37 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
73.3%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+9
73.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 9 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
73.3%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+4
73.3%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
73.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 5
OPP 28
0
73.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
72.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 11 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
72.0%
Tyler Cain run for 5 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-7
71.9%
Pete Thomas sacked by Xavier Woodson for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 12
OWN 37
-3
72.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 15
OWN 34
0
72.6%
Justin Manton punt for 43 yds, downed at the ArkSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
71.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-15
71.9%
Knighten, Fredi pass complete to McKissic, J.D. for 14 yards to the ASU43, out-of-bounds (Backus, Justin), PENALTY ASU pass interference (Paschal, Dijon) 15 yards to the ASU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 19
OWN 14
+15
71.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Ferrando Joseph) to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
71.8%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Mitch Lane return for 7 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
70.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 11 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
70.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+5
70.4%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
70.5%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28 Centarius Donald fumbled, forced by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones, recovered by ArkSt Frankie JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:3971% → 71%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
71.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+13
71.4%
Michael Gordon run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
72.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 16 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
72.3%
J.D. McKissic run for 11 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
72.5%
Gordon, Michael rush for 17 yards to the ULM14 (Lane, Mitch), PENALTY ASU HL (Greve, Tyler) 10 yards to the ULM41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+12
71.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 12 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+1
72.5%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+14
72.2%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete, PENALTY ULM roughing passer 14 yards to the ULM14, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
72.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
72.5%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the LaMon 11Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+5
72.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Blake Mack for 5 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
71.0%
Luke Ferguson 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:1930% → 30%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
69.7%
Tyler Cain run for 3 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
69.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete, broken up by Rocky HayesSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 23
-5
70.4%
Justin Manton punt for 42 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
70.5%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the ArkSt 32 Fredi Knighten fumbled, forced by Joey Gautney, recovered by LaMon Cordero SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
67.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+5
67.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 5 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
67.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 3 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
67.5%
Tyler Cain run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 11 Tyler Cain fumbled, forced by Frankie Jackson, recovered by ArkSt Qushaun LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 19 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
70.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 11 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
70.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to J.D. McKissicSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
70.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-10
69.5%
Knighten, Fredi rush for 11 yards to the ASU37 (Stovall, Ray), PENALTY ASU HL (Clark, Jemar) 10 yards to the ASU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 16
OWN 16
+15
69.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Kenneth Rains for 15 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
69.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-9
70.3%
Brandon Cox run for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 19
OWN 24
+24
69.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 24 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
71.4%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-5
70.7%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Gerrand Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 16
OWN 42
-7
69.8%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 30 Fredi Knighten fumbled, forced by Michael Johnson, recovered by ArkSt Michael GordonSimilar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 28
OWN 30
0
69.0%
Luke Ferguson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
67.2%
Tyler Cain run for 2 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-6
67.2%
Pete Thomas sacked by Caleb Caston for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
68.3%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon Ceaser, broken up by Andrew TryonSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 14
OWN 24
+8
68.9%
Justin Manton punt for 32 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 8 yds to the ArkSt 32 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (Kenneth Rains) to the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
70.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to J.D. McKissicSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
69.3%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
68.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
67.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 46 yds, downed at the LaMon 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
65.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 6 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 17
0
65.7%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+1
66.5%
Pete Thomas run for 1 yd to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 3
OWN 18
+1
67.3%
Justin Manton punt for 47 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 19 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (N/A) to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
68.3%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
67.9%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+44
66.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 44 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
71.0%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to White, Johnston, PENALTY ULM offside (Gammel, Caleb) 5 yards to the ULM24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 5
OPP 24
0
71.0%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
71.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Brandon CoxSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
70.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 5
OPP 24
-15
68.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 20
OPP 39
0
67.0%
Luke Ferguson punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 1:1636% → 35%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
64.0%
Tyler Cain run for 3 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
64.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
64.4%
Tyler Cain run for 5 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+7
64.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 7 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
62.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 7 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-6
61.2%
Pete Thomas sacked by Charles Grant for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
64.5%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by Rocky HayesSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
65.3%
Justin Manton punt for 29 yds, downed at the ArkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:4368% → 66%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
68.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+11
69.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 11 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
69.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
69.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to J.D. McKissicSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
67.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 10
OPP 44
+9
66.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 9 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
62.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
63.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 8 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 26
0
62.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tony CookSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
63.4%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Centarius DonaldSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+4
65.1%
Justin Manton punt for 59 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (N/A) to the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
66.1%
Michael Gordon run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
66.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 7 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+5
67.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
66.9%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+18
66.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
50
+3
69.3%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
69.5%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-9
69.0%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Joey Gautney for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
64.8%
Luke Ferguson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
62.5%
Centarius Donald run for 15 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
61.9%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
61.5%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+5
62.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 5 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+14
63.0%
Justin Manton punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 29 , Brandon Cox returns for 14 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:3365% → 81%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
65.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+68
64.7%
Michael Gordon run for 68 yds to the LaMon 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
76.3%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
76.7%
Centarius Donald run for 6 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-5
76.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Frank Sutton Jr.) to the LaMon 28Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+12
77.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 12 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
75.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 19 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
73.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by Rocky HayesSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
73.7%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
74.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Pete ThomasSimilar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 6
OPP 37
-5
75.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Demiere Burkett) to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
77.1%
Justin Manton punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:3080% → 94%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
80.3%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+14
80.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 14 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Brandon CoxSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
80.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Carl Lee Jr. for 8 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
81.3%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
82.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 15 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
82.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to J.D. McKissicSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
82.4%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+25
81.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 25 yds to the LaMon 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
82.8%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
93.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 12 yds for a TD UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:3210% → 9%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
89.9%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
89.5%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
89.1%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
89.1%
Centarius Donald run for 6 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
90.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for no gain to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
90.4%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Artez BrownSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+9
90.9%
Justin Manton punt for 49 yds , Brandon Cox returns for 9 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26INT
4 plays · 39 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+49
93.6%
Michael Gordon run for 49 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
94.2%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-10
94.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (Devin Mondie) to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 20
OPP 39
+13
94.0%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Justin Backus return for 13 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
80.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 59 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1386% → 95%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Jemar Clark) to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
85.7%
J.D. McKissic run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
86.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Justin Backus) to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
87.6%
Michael Gordon run for 10 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
87.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+6
87.8%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
88.1%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+29
95.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 29 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
92.7%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
92.7%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
92.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Centarius DonaldSimilar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 10
OWN 24
-2
93.1%
Justin Manton pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:2596% → 99%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
95.6%
Michael Gordon run for 10 yds to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 31DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.9%
Tyler Cain run for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
98.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 7 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
98.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tony Cook for 7 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+14
98.8%
Tyler Cain run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.8%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete, broken up by Jabari MathieuSimilar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
98.8%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+5
98.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Centarius Donald for 5 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 1
OPP 34
-2
98.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Alec Osborne for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 32PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:3499% → 100%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 8 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
99.2%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.2%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 8
50
+2
99.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Carl Lee Jr. for 2 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+2
99.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Luke Ferguson punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 33TD
7 plays · 97 yds · 1:111% → 5%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
99.4%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 9 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+8
99.4%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 8 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Brayle Brown pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.4%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 15 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.3%
Brayle Brown pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+24
99.3%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Tony Cook for 24 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
94.8%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 41 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 34END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
98.2%
DeKeathan Williams run for 3 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+3
98.2%
Stephen Hogan run for 3 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:51
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)
+16.7
TD · Q4 12:21
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 59 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)
-13.9
TD · Q3 1:38
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 12 yds for a TD UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Luke Ferguson KICK)
+10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com