Try the model
USU

Utah State 14 at Arkansas State 21

ARST
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:43 · Luke Ferguson punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 144Home team on offense−10.0Garbage-time factor−4.1Score differential−3.0Pregame prior+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:40: J.D. McKissic run for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +16.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:43: Darell Garretson pass complete to Ronald Butler for 41 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) — USU win probability +20.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:58: Johnston White run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +34.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:47: Darell Garretson pass incomplete — USU win probability +21.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Johnston White run for 1 yd to the UthSt 24 — ARST win probability +24.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9USU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 9:56USU 4th & 1 at ARST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.0%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:15ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:31ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:42USU 4th & 1 at USU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:42USU 4th & 19 at USU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00USU 4th & 12 at ARST 35, up 7
    Close callPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    50.4%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:09ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:31USU 4th & 3 at ARST 37, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−1.7
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:20ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.3%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:20ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:24USU 4th & 13 at ARST 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−2.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−4.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:55USU 4th & 13 at ARST 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−1.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    58.1%−1.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:39ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 35, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:42USU 4th & 8 at USU 22, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%−2.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:43ARST 4th & 15 at USU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−2.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:38USU 4th & 4 at USU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−<0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00ARST 4th & 12 at USU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:33USU 4th & 7 at USU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:40ARST 4th & 16 at USU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−4.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−10.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:40USU 4th & 12 at USU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−2.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:29USU 4th & 9 at USU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−7.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:37USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:40ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:43USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:58ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1FUMBLE
11 plays · 65 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
53.4%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Houston, Tres, PENALTY USU pass interference (SUITE, Brian) 15 yards to the ASU31, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
53.4%
Knighten, Fredi pass complete to Houston, Tres for 24 yards to the USU45, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ASU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ASU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+5
53.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+20
53.4%
Brandon Cox run for 20 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
53.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 9 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
53.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
53.4%
Brandon Byner run for 1 yd to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
53.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 14 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
53.4%
Brandon Byner run for 6 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+4
53.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 4 yds Tres Houston fumbled, forced by Nick Vigil, recovered by UthSt LT FiliagaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:0346% → 46%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
53.8%
Hunter Sharp run for 9 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 1
OWN 28
0
53.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete, broken up by Chris OdomSimilar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+31
53.8%
JoJo Natson run for 31 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
53.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ronald Butler for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
53.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hayden Weichers for 6 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
53.6%
LaJuan Hunt run for no gain to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
53.9%
Rashad Hall run for no gain to the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
54.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+16
54.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, roughing passer (16 Yards) to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
54.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-8
54.8%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Devin Centers for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 17
OWN 41
0
54.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
54.0%
Luke Ferguson punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD
1 play · 81 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
51.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 81 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
51.7%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Zach Vigil for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+5
51.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+12
51.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 12 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
52.1%
Brandon Byner run for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 17
OWN 36
0
51.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 17
OWN 36
+8
51.3%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
51.5%
Luke Ferguson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kyler Fackrell at the UthSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 19 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
50.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 8 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+1
50.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 1 yd to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
50.2%
Rashad Hall run for no gain to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+3
50.6%
Rashad Hall run for 3 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
50.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 7 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
49.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Hunter Sharp, broken up by Sterling WrightSimilar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+9
49.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 9 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
49.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for no gain to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-9
49.6%
HALL, Rashad rush for 5 yards to the ASU44 (Wright, S.;Lee, Qushaun), PENALTY USU HL (STEPHENS, Austi) 9 yards to the USU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 19
OWN 42
0
50.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Rashad Hall, broken up by Chris StoneSimilar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 19
OWN 42
0
50.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 19
OWN 42
0
50.9%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
50.2%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Frankie Sutera return for no gain to the ArkSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4053% → 51%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-6
47.5%
Darell Garretson sacked by Charleston Girley for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 39
0
47.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Hunter Sharp, broken up by Qushaun LeeSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 39
+4
48.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ronald Butler for 4 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 35
0
48.9%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 14 , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
48.8%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-4
48.9%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Zach Vigil for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 12
OWN 12
-5
48.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 17
OWN 7
0
48.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 17
OWN 7
0
48.0%
Luke Ferguson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by JoJo Natson at the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10INT
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
46.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 11 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
46.5%
Rashad Hall run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
46.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+21
46.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ronald Butler for 21 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
46.3%
JoJo Natson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
46.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q2 12:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
46.6%
Darell Garretson pass intercepted Sterling Young return for no gain to the ArkSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FUMBLE
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0048% → 50%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+21
47.7%
Johnston White run for 21 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
47.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
47.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+12
47.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
48.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 23 yds to the ARKST 42 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 2
OWN 43
-10
49.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (N/A) to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 12
OWN 33
+4
48.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
48.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 5 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+14
49.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 14 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-8
50.2%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 44 Fredi Knighten fumbled, recovered by UthSt Devin CentersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3457% → 58%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
43.2%
Rashad Hall run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-5
42.9%
JoJo Natson run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+3
43.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 3 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
42.5%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 32 yds, downed at the ArkSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
44.6%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+5
44.5%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 14
0
44.3%
Johnston White run for no gain to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 1
OWN 14
+6
43.8%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
44.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
44.8%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+6
44.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 6 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
44.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
43.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 36 yds , JoJo Natson returns for no gain to the UthSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14MISSED FG
12 plays · 29 yds · 2:5360% → 61%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
40.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 3
50
+4
39.3%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
39.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 9 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+1
39.0%
Rashad Hall run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (JoJo Natson) to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
39.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
38.6%
Darell Garretson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+4
39.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
38.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-3
39.0%
Darell Garretson sacked by Qushaun Lee for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 13
OPP 28
0
36.7%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+45
38.8%
Jake Thompson 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -11 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-11
42.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
39.3%
Rashad Hall run for 6 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+9
38.1%
Rashad Hall run for 9 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
37.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 8 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+12
37.0%
Kennedy Williams run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
36.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
36.6%
Devonte Robinson run for no gain to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+2
37.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 8
OPP 40
-5
38.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Damoun Patterson) to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
40.0%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
38.9%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+10
39.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 10 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
39.5%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
39.7%
J.D. McKissic run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
39.9%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
38.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by JoJo Natson at the UthSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
37.2%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Devonte Robinson, broken up by Artez BrownSimilar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
37.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
38.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 8
OWN 22
-9
39.5%
Jaron Bentrude run for a loss of 9 yards to the UthSt 13 Jaron Bentrude fumbled, recovered by UthSt Jaron BentrudeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:0544% → 60%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
43.9%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 2 yds to the UthSt 11Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-1
43.9%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 12Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
60.2%
J.D. McKissic run for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5147% → 71%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
53.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 20Similar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+16
53.3%
LaJuan Hunt run for 16 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
51.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 7 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
49.8%
Rashad Hall run for 4 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
49.5%
JoJo Natson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+6
49.1%
Kennedy Williams run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
49.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Hunter Sharp) to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+4
50.6%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+3
49.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+41
29.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ronald Butler for 41 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0035% → 32%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
34.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Johnston White for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+24
34.9%
Johnston White run for 24 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
38.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
38.5%
Brandon Cox run for no gain to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-5
36.9%
Brandon Byner run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 15
OPP 44
0
32.4%
Luke Ferguson punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
30.6%
Rashad Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 1Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
31.1%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jefferson CourtSimilar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+7
32.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 7 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 4
OWN 8
0
33.0%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 39 yds, downed at the UthSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0735% → 29%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
35.1%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 45
0
30.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete, broken up by LT FiliagaSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 45
+6
29.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 6 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
28.5%
Luke Ferguson punt for 44 yds, downed at the UthSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+15
27.0%
HUNT, LaJuan rush for no gain to the USU5 (Blackmon, D.), PENALTY ASU face mask 15 yards to the USU20, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
26.4%
Kennedy Williams run for 3 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
26.0%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Wyatt HoustonSimilar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
27.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to JoJo Natson, broken up by Artez BrownSimilar
Q4 14:33
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+9
28.6%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 40 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 9 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25MISSED FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:3532% → 26%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
32.4%
Johnston White run for no gain to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+19
30.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 19 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
35.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 14 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-6
35.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 16
OPP 27
+4
33.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 12
OPP 23
-4
32.1%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Torrey Green for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 16
OPP 27
+44
26.2%
Luke Ferguson 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
22.9%
JoJo Natson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 25Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+11
24.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ronald Butler for 11 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
21.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
20.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-5
21.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 37Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 12
OWN 37
0
24.2%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
25.5%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 29 yds, downed at the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 2:5925% → 64%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
25.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, delay of game (Travis Seefeldt) to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 5
OWN 39
+12
28.3%
Johnston White run for 12 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
29.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 16 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
31.9%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
31.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+5
29.8%
Brandon Byner run for 5 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
31.9%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
31.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to J.D. McKissicSimilar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
29.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Johnston WhiteSimilar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+15
23.1%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Griswold, D., PENALTY USU pass interference (CENTERS, Devin) 15 yards to the USU3, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
28.8%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 4Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
63.5%
Johnston White run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2952% → 48%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
48.3%
Darell Garretson sacked by Chris Stone for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 17Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-1
49.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Kennedy Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+10
51.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 10 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+2
52.2%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 19 , Blaise Taylor returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (2 Yards) to the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29FUMBLE
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0056% → 61%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
55.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
55.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 7 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
56.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
58.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-5
54.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Darion Griswold) to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+19
52.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 19 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
61.4%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 9
50
-8
61.4%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 38 Fredi Knighten fumbled, recovered by UthSt LT FiliagaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30MISSED FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:4761% → 60%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
39.5%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
39.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+4
38.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
36.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 4 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+2
36.6%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+38
40.0%
Nick Diaz 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Chris Odom return for no gain to the ArkSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 31TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
64.7%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the UthSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+35.3
TD · Q4 4:58
Johnston White run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)
+34.7
TD · OT 0:00
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the UthSt 24
+24.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com