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MTST

Montana State 10 at Arkansas State 37

ARST
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadMTST aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreMTST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:25 · Luke Ferguson punt for 61 yds, downed at the MntSt 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Pregame prior+3.8Home team on offense+35.5Score differential+27.1Garbage-time factor+12.2Blowout margin+11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:05: Luke Ferguson 23 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +3.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 10:21: Luke Daly 34 yd FG GOOD — MTST win probability +3.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q3 5:26: Luke Ferguson 41 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +3.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:53: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 23 yds for a TD — ARST win probability +13.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:25: Terrance Hollingsworth 1 Yd Run (Luke Ferguson Kick) — ARST win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MTST made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 14:19MTST 4th & 14 at MTST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:32ARST 4th & 1 at MTST 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:57MTST 4th & 2 at MTST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:45MTST 4th & 1 at ARST 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:21ARST 4th & 5 at MTST 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MTST 4th & 8 at MTST 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:51ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:21MTST 4th & 14 at ARST 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:21ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:21MTST 4th & 6 at MTST 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:21ARST 4th & 1 at MTST 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    68.3%−2.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:49MTST 4th & 14 at ARST 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:05ARST 4th & 5 at MTST 6, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−6.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:47MTST 4th & 6 at ARST 48, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:21MTST 4th & 5 at ARST 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−8.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:13ARST 4th & 2 at MTST 42, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−2.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q3 8:02MTST 4th & 9 at MTST 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:26ARST 4th & 17 at MTST 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−3.1
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−8.2
    average punt
  19. Q3 5:21MTST 4th & 16 at MTST 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−3.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:47MTST 4th & 14 at MTST 21, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:25ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 33, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 7:03MTST 4th & 8 at MTST 8, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:28MTST 4th & 8 at MTST 8, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MTST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:19ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:45MTST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:53ARST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:25ARST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:47ARST Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4176% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.2%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+29
76.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 29 yds to the MntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
76.2%
Michael Gordon run for 42 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.2%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Tiai Salanoa for 3 yds to the MntSt 28Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
76.2%
Dakota Prukop run for no gain to the MntSt 21 Dakota Prukop fumbled, forced by Chris Humes, recovered by MntSt N/ASimilar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
76.2%
Dakota Prukop run for no gain to the MntSt 21Similar
Q1 14:19
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
76.2%
Jake Bleskin punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MntSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
76.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 6 yds to the MntSt 37Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+12
76.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 12 yds to the MntSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
76.5%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the MntSt 23Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
76.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+11
76.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 11 yds to the MntSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
76.5%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the MntSt 6Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+2
76.5%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the MntSt 4Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
76.5%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the MntSt 3Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
76.4%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the MntSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
76.4%
Shawn Johnson run for 5 yds to the MntSt 8Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+5
76.4%
Shawn Johnson run for 5 yds to the MntSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
76.3%
Shawn Johnson run for no gain to the MntSt 13Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
76.4%
Shawn Johnson run for 2 yds to the MntSt 15Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+6
76.5%
Dakota Prukop run for 6 yds to the MntSt 21Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
76.5%
Trevor Bolton punt for 52 yds , J.D. McKissic returns for no gain to the ArkSt 7 J.D. McKissic fumbled, recovered by MntSt Rhett YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 5TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3224% → 27%
Q1 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
75.6%
Anthony Knight run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.6%
Anthony Knight run for no gain to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.9%
Anthony Knight run for no gain to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q1 5:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.3%
Anthony Knight run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Daly KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 4:1974% → 75%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
73.9%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+9
74.0%
Michael Gordon run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
74.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 15
OWN 37
0
73.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Brandon BynerSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+17
73.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 17 yds to the MntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
74.7%
Johnston White run for 16 yds to the MntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
74.9%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the MntSt 28Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
74.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+11
74.6%
Johnston White run for 11 yds to the MntSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
74.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for no gain to the MntSt 17Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-4
74.9%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Connor Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the MntSt 21Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 14
OPP 21
+9
74.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 9 yds to the MntSt 12Similar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
74.6%
Luke Ferguson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1426% → 25%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
74.1%
Dakota Prukop run for a loss of 3 yards to the MntSt 28Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+9
74.3%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Mitch Griebel for 9 yds to the MntSt 37Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-4
73.9%
Shawn Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MntSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
74.7%
Jake Bleskin punt for 28 yds, downed at the ArkSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
74.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-6
74.3%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+4
73.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
73.3%
Luke Ferguson punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MntSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 9MISSED FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:0326% → 26%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
73.8%
Shawn Johnson run for no gain to the MntSt 16Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+55
74.0%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Justin Paige for 55 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
71.9%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Tiai Salanoa for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
71.9%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-6
72.5%
Dakota Prukop sacked by Xavier Woodson for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+50
74.0%
Luke Daly 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
73.6%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
74.3%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
73.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
73.0%
Luke Ferguson punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MntSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
73.5%
Anthony Knight run for no gain to the MntSt 13Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
73.6%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Tiai Salanoa for 2 yds to the MntSt 15Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+7
74.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Brian Flotkoetter for 7 yds to the MntSt 22Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 1
OWN 22
-5
74.3%
MONTANA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MntSt 17Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
74.6%
Trevor Bolton punt for 53 yds, downed at the ArkSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
73.2%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+17
73.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 17 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
74.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 9 yds to the MntSt 43Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-1
74.8%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the MntSt 44Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
74.6%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the MntSt 43Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
73.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3729% → 27%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
71.3%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Gunnar Brekke for 8 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-5
70.7%
MONTANA ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the MntSt 46Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+20
71.1%
Shawn Johnson run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
70.1%
Shawn Johnson run for no gain to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-7
70.1%
Dakota Prukop sacked by Charleston Girley and Dexter Blackmon for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+3
72.4%
Dakota Prukop run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 14
OPP 38
0
72.6%
Trevor Bolton punt for 37 yds, downed at the ArkSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14FG
15 plays · 93 yds · 3:3372% → 77%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
71.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+1
71.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Kenneth Rains for 1 yd to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+16
70.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 16 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
72.0%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
72.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+5
72.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
72.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
73.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+43
72.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 43 yds to the MntSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
74.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
74.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 5 yds to the MntSt 6Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
73.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
76.8%
Luke Ferguson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
76.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MntSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 16FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:3126% → 32%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
74.3%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Lee Perkins for 13 yds to the MntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
72.7%
Shawn Johnson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
72.3%
Shawn Johnson run for no gain to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-1
72.6%
Dakota Prukop run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 38 MONTANA ST Penalty, HL (Brian Flotkoetter) to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
72.6%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Brian FlotkoetterSimilar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+25
73.6%
Trevor Bolton run for 25 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
69.4%
Dakota Prukop run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+1
69.4%
Anthony Knight run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+2
70.8%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Mitch Griebel for 2 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+34
67.8%
Luke Daly 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
72.0%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
73.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
50
0
73.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Jr. Carl Lee, broken up by Bryson KeetonSimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
50
+8
72.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 8 yds to the MntSt 42Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
73.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for no gain to the MntSt 42Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
71.6%
Luke Ferguson punt for 37 yds, downed at the MntSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 28%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
69.4%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Brian FlotkoetterSimilar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+1
69.8%
Anthony Knight run for 1 yd to the MntSt 6Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 9
OWN 6
0
70.9%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Justin PaigeSimilar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 9
OWN 6
0
71.9%
Trevor Bolton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the MntSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:3774% → 75%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
74.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MntSt 45Similar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+4
72.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 4 yds to the MntSt 41Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+25
73.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 25 yds to the MntSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
74.8%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 4 yards to the MntSt 20Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 14
OPP 20
-11
74.1%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete, PENALTY ASU intentional grounding (Knighten, Fredi) 11 yards to the MSU31, NO PLAY (Nate Bignell).Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 25
OPP 31
+8
71.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 8 yds to the MntSt 23Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 17
OPP 23
+41
75.3%
Luke Ferguson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
73.9%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Mitch Griebel for 10 yds to the MntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
73.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Mitch Griebel for 6 yds to the MntSt 36Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
71.2%
Dakota Prukop run for 7 yds to the MntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
71.7%
Dakota Prukop run for 2 yds to the MntSt 45Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
70.8%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Mitch Griebel, broken up by Andrew TryonSimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-8
72.6%
Dakota Prukop sacked by Caleb Caston for a loss of 8 yards to the MntSt 37Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 16
OWN 37
+1
75.7%
Trevor Bolton punt for 44 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:4478% → 92%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
78.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Terrance Hollingsworth for 12 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+45
78.7%
Tres Houston pass complete to Fredi Knighten for 45 yds to the MntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
91.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 23 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 22INT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
87.6%
Chad Newell run for 4 yds to the MntSt 32Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-10
87.1%
MONTANA ST Penalty, HL (-10 Yards) to the MntSt 22Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 16
OWN 22
-2
88.7%
Dakota Prukop sacked by Chris Stone for a loss of 2 yards to the MntSt 20Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 18
OWN 20
0
88.9%
Dakota Prukop pass intercepted Rocky Hayes return for no gain to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 0:4894% → 98%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
93.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 11 yds to the MntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
93.9%
MONTANA ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the MntSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+33
93.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 33 yds to the MntSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
93.9%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 4 yds to the MntSt 1Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.4%
Terrance Hollingsworth 1 Yd Run (Luke Ferguson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 24INT
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
98.0%
Dakota Prukop pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+13
98.0%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Gunnar Brekke for 13 yds to the MntSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
98.0%
Anthony Knight run for no gain to the MntSt 26Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
98.0%
Dakota Prukop sacked by Sterling Young for a loss of 2 yards to the MntSt 24Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+13
98.1%
Dakota Prukop run for 13 yds to the MntSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
97.8%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Mitch Griebel for 8 yds to the MntSt 45Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
97.8%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Xavier WoodsonSimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
97.9%
Anthony Knight run for 4 yds to the MntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.8%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Gunnar BrekkeSimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
97.8%
Gunnar Brekke run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+40
97.9%
Dakota Prukop pass intercepted Qushaun Lee return for 40 yds to the MntSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25TD
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:0799% → 100%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
98.9%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the MntSt 10Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
98.9%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Mays, Booker, PENALTY MSU offside defense 4 yards to the MSU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+3
98.9%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the MntSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.9%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the MntSt 1Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Johnston White 1 Yd Run (Luke Ferguson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Mitch Griebel for 4 yds to the MntSt 29Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.9%
MONTANA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MntSt 24Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-3
99.9%
Dakota Prukop sacked by Austi Copeland for a loss of 3 yards to the MntSt 21Similar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+10
99.9%
Trevor Bolton punt for 61 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 10 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Brandon Byner run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+4
99.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete, broken up by Connor ThomasSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 61 yds, downed at the MntSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
99.9%
Anthony Knight run for 1 yd to the MntSt 7Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+2
99.9%
Anthony Knight run for 2 yds to the MntSt 9Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 9
-1
99.9%
Anthony Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the MntSt 8Similar
Q4 7:03
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Trevor Bolton punt for 56 yds, downed at the ArkSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29FUMBLE
8 plays · 58 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
DeKeathan Williams run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
DeKeathan Williams run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
DeKeathan Williams run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
99.9%
Stephen Hogan run for 16 yds to the MntSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
DeKeathan Williams run for 2 yds to the MntSt 35Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Brandon Byner run for 5 yds to the MntSt 30Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+9
99.9%
Brandon Byner run for 9 yds to the MntSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
99.9%
Stephen Hogan run for 11 yds to the MntSt 6 Stephen Hogan fumbled, forced by Mac Bignell, recovered by MntSt Mac BignellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
99.9%
Dakota Prukop pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+4
99.9%
Chad Newell run for 4 yds to the MntSt 10Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 6
OWN 10
-2
99.9%
Gunnar Brekke run for a loss of 2 yards to the MntSt 8Similar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Trevor Bolton punt for 40 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the MntSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:53
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 23 yds for a TD
+13.2
TD · Q4 14:25
Terrance Hollingsworth 1 Yd Run (Luke Ferguson Kick)
+4.6
FG · Q3 5:26
Luke Ferguson 41 yd FG GOOD
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com