2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTROY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:24 · Ryan Heicher punt for 30 yds, downed at the TROY 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorTimeout advantage
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 6:00: Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 16 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +15.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
- TD · Q3 3:34: Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +20.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:49: Clune Van Andel 46 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +11.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:45: Gerald Green run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +50.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:33: Zak Wallace run for 1 yd for a TD (Jaylen Raynor pass to Corey Rucker for Two-Point Conversion) — ARST win probability +79.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 11:19ARST 4th & 4 at TROY 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snapGo for it71.4%40% to convertField goalTheir call71.4%−<0.193% to makePunt70.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:58ARST 4th & 2 at TROY 2, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 71.5% before the snapGo for it71.5%48% to convertField goalTheir call71.2%−0.394% to makePunt69.8%−1.7average punt
- Q2 8:20TROY 4th & 20 at ARST 20, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snapGo for it18.8%−1.59% to convertField goalTheir call20.3%75% to makePunt17.0%−3.3average punt
- Q2 2:19TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 49, down 17Close callPunted · 14.0% before the snapGo for it13.4%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:48ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 23, up 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it88.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.7%−1.4average punt
- Q2 0:19ARST 4th & 5 at TROY 35, up 17Close callWent for it · 86.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.7%−0.942% to convertField goal87.6%45% to makePunt85.7%−1.8average punt
- Q3 8:52ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 17, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snapGo for it85.5%−0.938% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.4%average punt
- Q3 6:59TROY 4th & 4 at ARST 47, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt14.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 0:49ARST 4th & 9 at TROY 29, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snapGo for it54.5%−1.331% to convertField goalTheir call55.7%58% to makePunt44.8%−11.0average punt
- Q4 14:09TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 40, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snapGo for it34.1%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.4%average punt
- Q4 12:24ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 27, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snapGo for it60.3%−7.412% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 1:40ARST Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.8%97% to makeGo for two75.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:39ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.0%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:44TROY Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.4%97% to makeGo for two13.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:00TROY Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.5%97% to makeGo for two21.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:34TROY Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.1%97% to makeGo for two39.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 1:45TROY Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.2%97% to makeGo for two75.0%−1.245% to convert
- Q4 0:33ARST Touchdown, up 1 before the tryNumbers favored kick by 3.3 ptsWent for two · convertedKick79.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call76.1%−3.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARSTDrive 1FG9 plays · 71 yds · 3:4077% → 76%
Q1 14:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
76.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Malik Hornsby for no gain to the ARST 28Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
76.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 8 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+49
76.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 49 yds to the TROY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
76.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the TROY 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2FUMBLE1 play · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.3%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 28 Damien Taylor fumbled, recovered by ARST Marvin Ham M. Ham return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3FG7 plays · 26 yds · 2:5677% → 77%
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+12
76.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the TROY 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4INT5 plays · 31 yds · 2:1524% → 25%
ARSTDrive 5TD11 plays · 99 yds · 3:5476% → 81%
TROYDrive 6FG17 plays · 55 yds · 8:1920% → 21%
Q1 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+24
79.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 24 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+16
79.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 16 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
78.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 1 yd to the ARST 19Similar
Q2 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-23
79.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 23 yards to the ARST 30 fumbled, recovered by TROY Matthew Caldwell M. Caldwell return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 30
+6
80.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Gerald Green for 6 yds to the ARST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD10 plays · 71 yds · 3:3685% → 91%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
84.7%
(08:15) HORNSBY, Malik rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the ASU31 (POWE, Justin), clock 08:07. PENALTY ASU Holding on SMITH, Noah enforced 10 yards from the ASU29 to the ASU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+26
85.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 26 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
86.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 7 yds to the TROY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 2:1913% → 12%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 8 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
86.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 2 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
87.7%
Robert Cole punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2392% → 90%
Q2 1:48
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
89.7%
Ryan Heicher punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10INT2 plays · 12 yds · 0:2411% → 11%
ARSTDrive 11FG10 plays · 35 yds · 1:1391% → 95%
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+17
91.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 17 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+5
89.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 5 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+13
87.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the TROY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:156% → 15%
ARSTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4787% → 86%
TROYDrive 14TD6 plays · 53 yds · 2:3515% → 32%
Q3 6:59
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+22
85.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 22 yds to the ARST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
83.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 9 yds to the ARST 16Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+16
68.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 16 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15FUMBLE4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1473% → 67%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Malik Hornsby for 3 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
73.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 25Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 2 yds fumbled, forced by Brendan Jackson, recovered by TROY Jah-Mal Williams J. Williams return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
66.6%
(04:41) CALDWELL, Matthew pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DALTON, Brody thrown to the ASU0; QB hurried by JONES, Jayden, clock 04:34. PENALTY TROY Holding on HENRY, Matt enforced 10 yards from the ASU27 to the ASU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD3 plays · 27 yds · 0:5930% → 51%
ARSTDrive 17FG9 plays · 46 yds · 2:4453% → 66%
TROYDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 31 yds · 1:3134% → 35%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+26
65.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 26 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
63.3%
(15:00) CALDWELL, Matthew pass short to the left incomplete intended for ROSS, Devonte thrown to the TROY40, clock 14:58. PENALTY ASU Offsides on TOLL, Blayne enforced 5 yards from the TROY37 to the TROY42 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3765% → 62%
Q4 13:11
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-11
68.3%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Brendan Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the ARST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20Uncategorized10 plays · 10 yds · 2:1339% → 33%
Q4 10:03
4TH & 16
OWN 48
-39
66.6%
(10:03) COLE, Robert punt 39 yards to the ASU13, fair catch by JACKSON, Courtney, clock 10:01. PENALTY ASU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on JACKSON, Braden TROY Unsportsmanlike Conduct on STRAIT, Jabari , Offsetting penalties [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21FUMBLE11 plays · 87 yds · 4:3767% → 74%
Q4 9:06
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+12
65.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
66.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 7 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+28
68.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 28 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
74.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by TROYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD13 plays · 80 yds · 3:3135% → 94%
Q4 3:22
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
61.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 3 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+9
61.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jackson Worley for 9 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+36
59.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 36 yds to the ARST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD11 plays · 75 yds · 1:1214% → 95%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
14.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 9 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+18
14.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
14.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 8 yds to the TROY 40Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+8
16.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+23
16.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 23 yds to the TROY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
15.5%
Troy Penalty, Defensive Holding (Damaje Yancey) to the TROY 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
16.1%
(00:37) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass short to the right incomplete intended for STEVENSON JR., Manny thrown to the TROY0, clock 00:35. PENALTY TROY Holding on YANCEY, Damaje enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the TROY2 to the TROY1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.1%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd for a TD (Jaylen Raynor pass to Corey Rucker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24INT5 plays · 45 yds · 0:2320% → 30%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
80.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 13 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
77.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Damien Taylor for 6 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+26
74.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 26 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
69.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass intercepted, touchback. Trevian Thomas return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
95.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at ASU18 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:33
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd for a TD (Jaylen Raynor pass to Corey Rucker for Two-Point Conversion)
+79
TD · Q4 1:45
Gerald Green run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-50.3
TD · Q3 3:34
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-20.2