ARDLINETry the model
AS

Arkansas State 38 at Bowling Green 31

BG
2024 · Week 1 · Dec 27, 2024 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Win probability · BG
modelBG aheadAS aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4PUNTTDTDTDTDTDFGTD
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 6 yds to the ARST 31
0.0
Q1 15:00
RAYNOR, Jaylen pass to the right incomplete intended for EALY, Reagan thrown to the ASU40. PENALTY ASU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BAYER, Jacob enforced 5 yards from the ASU31 to the ASU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
+0.3
Q1 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 8 yds to the ARST 34
-0.3
Q1 15:00
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 35 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 5 yds to the ARST 40
-0.3
Q1 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
-0.6
Q1 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 7 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for no gain to the BGSU 47 for a 1ST down Bowling Green Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BGSU 38 for a 1ST down
-1.7
Q1 15:00
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the BGSU 33
-0.4
Q1 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 10 yds to the BGSU 23 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q1 15:00
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the BGSU 20
-0.4
Q1 15:00
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 15:00
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Charles Rosser and Avi McGary for a loss of 9 yards to the BGSU 29
0.0
Q1 9:57
Clune Van Andel 46 yd FG GOOD
-4.1
Q1 9:53
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
+5.7
Q1 9:53
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 6 yds to the BGSU 24
0.0
Q1 9:53
Connor Bazelak sacked by Ian Jeffries for a loss of 8 yards to the BGSU 16
0.0
Q1 8:02
John Henderson punt for 44 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 60 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
-17.9
Q1 8:02
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 24
0.0
Q1 8:02
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the BGSU 29
0.0
Q1 8:02
BAZELAK, Connor pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for JOHNSON JR., Malcolm thrown to the ASU45. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on HODGES, Justin enforced 15 yards to the BGSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
0.0
Q1 8:02
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 23 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q1 8:02
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 35
+2.0
Q1 8:02
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 4 yds to the ARST 31
0.0
Q1 8:02
Connor Bazelak run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 43 Connor Bazelak fumbled, recovered by BGSU Terion Stewart
-0.2
Q1 4:04
Baron May pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 43 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)
+13.9
Q1 4:04
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 26 yds to the BGSU 49 for a 1ST down
-4.5
Q1 4:04
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the BGSU 46
-1.8
Q1 4:04
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 4:04
RAYNOR, Jaylen pass to the left incomplete intended for STEVENSON JR., Manny broken up by SIMMS, Trent at the BGSU35; QB hurried by HAWKINS, Anthony. PENALTY BGSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SIMMS, Trent enforced 15 yards from the BGSU46 to the BGSU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
0.0
Q1 4:04
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 15 yds to the BGSU 16 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q1 4:04
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 2 yds to the BGSU 14
0.0
Q1 4:04
Bowling Green Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacorey Benjamin) to the BGSU 5 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 4:04
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 1:39
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
-18.7
Q1 1:39
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 2 yds to the BGSU 27
+5.8
Q1 1:39
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 5 yds to the BGSU 32
0.0
Q1 0:00
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 4 yds to the BGSU 36 for a 1ST down
-0.5
Q2 15:00
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the BGSU 41
0.0
Q2 15:00
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 33 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q2 15:00
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
+2.0
Q2 15:00
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 1 yd to the ARST 25
0.0
Q2 15:00
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
-0.3
Q2 12:39
Zach Long 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by
-0.4
Q2 12:39
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 4 yds to the ARST 29
-5.8
Q2 12:39
QB Keeper RAYNOR, Jaylen rush to the right for a gain of 14 yards to the ASU43 (SIPP JR., Joseph), out of bounds. PENALTY ASU Holding on SMITH, Tristian enforced 10 yards from the ASU29 to the ASU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
0.0
Q2 12:39
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 13 yds to the ARST 32
0.0
Q2 12:39
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 11:08
Ryan Heicher punt for 45 yds
0.0
Q2 11:08
Justin Pegues run for 2 yds to the BGSU 25
+3.6
Q2 10:25
Timeout Bowling Green, clock 10:25
-0.7
Q2 10:25
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 10:25
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 26 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 10:25
Terion Stewart run for 16 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST down
+1.6
Q2 10:25
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 35
+1.1
Q2 10:25
Arkansas State Penalty, Offsides (Tim Hardiman) to the ARST 30
0.0
Q2 10:25
Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the ARST 27
0.0
Q2 10:25
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 19 yds to the ARST 8 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q2 6:46
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 8 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)
+13.3
Q2 6:43
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 11
-7.4
Q2 6:43
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 14
0.0
Q2 6:43
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 4 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:43
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 21
0.0
Q2 4:13
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 79 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
-15.2
Q2 4:13
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 23 yds to the BGSU 48 for a 1ST down
+1.6
Q2 4:13
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 21 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST down
+0.8
Q2 4:13
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the ARST 31
+2.2
Q2 4:13
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 23 yds to the ARST 8 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 4:13
Arkansas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Justin Hodges) to the ARST 4 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 4:13
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 1:36
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)
+17.5
Q2 1:26
Ja'Quez Cross run for 7 yds to the ARST 32
-8.7
Q2 0:56
Timeout Bowling Green, clock 00:56
0.0
Q2 0:56
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Joseph Sipp Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 28
0.0
Q2 0:44
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Jordan Oladokun return for 2 yds to the BGSU 36
0.0
Q2 0:44
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
+6.0
Q2 0:32
Timeout Bowling Green, clock 00:32
+0.1
Q2 0:32
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 4 yds to the BGSU 40
-0.4
Q2 0:32
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 14 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q2 0:32
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 22 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST down
+1.4
Q2 0:32
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 3 yds to the ARST 21
+0.9
Q2 0:07
Zach Long 39 yd FG MISSED
-1.8
Q2 0:00
[NH] Kneel down by RAYNOR, Jaylen at ASU19 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
-9.0
Q3 14:40
Terion Stewart run for 4 yds to the BGSU 34 Terion Stewart fumbled, recovered by ARST Noah Collins N. Collins return for 0 yds
+6.7
Q3 14:40
Reagan Ealy pass complete to Jaylen Raynor for 11 yds to the BGSU 23 for a 1ST down
-6.4
Q3 14:40
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Brock Horne for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 24
0.0
Q3 14:40
Ja'Quez Cross run for 10 yds to the BGSU 14
0.0
Q3 14:40
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the BGSU 10 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 14:40
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the BGSU 6
0.0
Q3 11:21
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
-16.7
Q3 11:21
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 7 yds to the BGSU 32
-2.5
Q3 11:21
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BGSU 34
0.0
Q3 11:21
Harold Fannin Jr. run for 8 yds to the BGSU 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:21
Jaison Patterson run for no gain to the BGSU 42
+0.1
Q3 11:21
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 11:21
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 25 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:21
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
+2.4
Q3 11:21
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 6 yds to the ARST 27
0.0
Q3 11:21
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 7 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:21
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 11:21
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 11:21
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 6:14
Zach Long 38 yd FG GOOD
+13.5
Q3 6:09
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
-10.3
Q3 6:09
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 12 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:09
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 6:09
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 2 yds to the ARST 36
0.0
Q3 6:09
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
-0.7
Q3 4:41
Ryan Heicher punt for 35 yds , Justin Pegues returns for no gain to the BGSU 29
-0.7
Q3 4:41
Justin Pegues run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 28
+8.0
Q3 4:41
Arkansas State Penalty, Offsides (Kamari Stephens) to the BGSU 33
0.0
Q3 4:41
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 4:41
Connor Bazelak run for no gain to the BGSU 33
0.0
Q3 3:14
John Henderson run for 4 yds to the BGSU 37
-3.5
Q3 3:14
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 38
-6.5
Q3 3:14
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the BGSU 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:14
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 3:14
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the BGSU 16
0.0
Q3 3:14
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 1:11
Clune Van Andel 33 yd FG MISSED
-0.1
Q3 1:11
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 3 yds to the BGSU 23
+6.6
Q3 0:00
Rahkeem Smith run for 5 yds to the BGSU 28
-2.5
Q4 15:00
Jamal Johnson run for 6 yds to the BGSU 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 15:00
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 15 yds to the BGSU 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 15:00
Jamal Johnson run for 2 yds to the ARST 49
+0.8
Q4 15:00
Jamal Johnson run for 6 yds to the ARST 43
+0.3
Q4 15:00
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
+2.2
Q4 15:00
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 35 yds fumbled, recovered by BGSU Harold Fannin Jr. H. Fannin Jr. return for 0 yds for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q4 15:00
Rahkeem Smith run for 4 yds to the ARST 4
+0.4
Q4 15:00
Bowling Green Penalty, False Start (Nate Pabst) to the ARST 9
0.0
Q4 15:00
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 15:00
Bowling Green Penalty, False Start (Harold Fannin Jr.) to the ARST 14
0.0
Q4 15:00
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 10:19
Zach Long 32 yd FG MISSED
-5.7
Q4 10:19
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 23
-6.3
Q4 10:19
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Ali Saad for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 18
0.0
Q4 10:19
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 8:45
Ryan Heicher punt for 54 yds , Justin Pegues returns for 3 yds to the BGSU 31
-2.5
Q4 8:45
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
+4.9
Q4 8:45
Justin Pegues run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 30
0.0
Q4 8:45
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 7:53
John Henderson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 32
-2.5
Q4 7:53
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 4 yds to the ARST 36
-3.9
Q4 7:53
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 41
-0.2
Q4 7:53
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q4 7:53
Zak Wallace run for 26 yds to the BGSU 30 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 7:53
Zak Wallace run for 7 yds to the BGSU 23
0.0
Q4 7:53
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the BGSU 15 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 7:53
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the BGSU 14
0.0
Q4 3:10
Zak Wallace run for 14 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
-14.1
Q4 2:59
BAZELAK, Connor pass short to the right incomplete intended for GAZAREK, Levi thrown to the ASU35. PENALTY BGSU Holding on FATUKASI, Tunde enforced 10 yards from the ASU38 to the ASU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
+6.1
Q4 2:59
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 4 yds to the ARST 44
-0.6
Q4 2:17
Timeout Bowling Green, clock 02:17
+0.7
Q4 2:17
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 7 yds to the ARST 37
-0.6
Q4 2:17
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 6 yds to the ARST 31
+0.6
Q4 2:17
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 8 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q4 1:42
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 23 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)
+7.5
Q4 1:35
Timeout Bowling Green, clock 01:35
-10.3
Q4 1:35
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 48
0.0
Q4 1:29
Timeout Bowling Green, clock 01:29
-2.9
Q4 1:29
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the BGSU 47
0.0
Q4 1:29
Zak Wallace run for 19 yds to the BGSU 28 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:00
[NH] Kneel down by RAYNOR, Jaylen at BGSU30 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
+1.7
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:39
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
-18.7
PUNT · Q1 8:02
John Henderson punt for 44 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 60 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
-17.9
TD · Q2 1:36
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)
+17.5
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com