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ARST

Arkansas State 38 at Bowling Green 31

BGSU
2024 · 68 Ventures Bowl · Dec 26, 2024 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:08 · Ryan Heicher punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior+16.8Home team on offense−5.2Garbage-time factor−1.6Score differential−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:13: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 79 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +10.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:36: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK) — BGSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 11:21: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +14.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:10: Zak Wallace run for 14 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +15.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:42: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 23 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK) — BGSU win probability +24.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:57ARST 4th & 16 at BGSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:02BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:04BGSU 4th & 20 at ARST 43, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    69.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:39BGSU 4th & 9 at ARST 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:08ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:14BGSU 4th & 10 at ARST 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−8.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:41ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−1.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:14BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 33, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%−2.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:11ARST 4th & 6 at BGSU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−9.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00BGSU 4th & 2 at ARST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.5%−5.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:19BGSU 4th & 14 at ARST 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−4.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−15.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:45ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−4.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:53BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:17BGSU 4th & 3 at ARST 31, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:04BGSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:39ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:46BGSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:13ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:36BGSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:21ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:10ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.9
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:42BGSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 5:0326% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 6 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
74.1%
RAYNOR, Jaylen pass to the right incomplete intended for EALY, Reagan thrown to the ASU40. PENALTY ASU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BAYER, Jacob enforced 5 yards from the ASU31 to the ASU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
74.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 8 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
74.1%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
74.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 5 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
74.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+7
74.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 7 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
74.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for no gain to the BGSU 47 for a 1ST down Bowling Green Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BGSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
74.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the BGSU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+10
74.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 10 yds to the BGSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
74.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the BGSU 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
74.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-9
74.1%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Charles Rosser and Avi McGary for a loss of 9 yards to the BGSU 29Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 16
OPP 29
+46
73.0%
Clune Van Andel 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:5173% → 70%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
72.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
72.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 6 yds to the BGSU 24Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 4
OWN 24
-8
72.6%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Ian Jeffries for a loss of 8 yards to the BGSU 16Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 12
OWN 16
+60
69.7%
John Henderson punt for 44 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 60 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5870% → 70%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 24Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
70.0%
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the BGSU 29Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
70.0%
BAZELAK, Connor pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for JOHNSON JR., Malcolm thrown to the ASU45. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on HODGES, Justin enforced 15 yards to the BGSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
70.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 23 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
70.9%
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 35Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+4
70.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 4 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-4
70.6%
Connor Bazelak run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 43 Connor Bazelak fumbled, recovered by BGSU Terion StewartSimilar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 20
OPP 43
+43
70.0%
Baron May pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 43 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2529% → 36%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
70.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 26 yds to the BGSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
69.9%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the BGSU 46Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
69.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+15
70.1%
RAYNOR, Jaylen pass to the left incomplete intended for STEVENSON JR., Manny broken up by SIMMS, Trent at the BGSU35; QB hurried by HAWKINS, Anthony. PENALTY BGSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SIMMS, Trent enforced 15 yards from the BGSU46 to the BGSU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
69.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 15 yds to the BGSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
69.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 2 yds to the BGSU 14Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+3
69.6%
Bowling Green Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacorey Benjamin) to the BGSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
69.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:0064% → 61%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 2 yds to the BGSU 27Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
64.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 5 yds to the BGSU 32Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
63.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 4 yds to the BGSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
63.5%
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the BGSU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+33
64.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 33 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
65.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
65.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 1 yd to the ARST 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
64.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
60.9%
Zach Long 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3138% → 39%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 4 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
61.8%
QB Keeper RAYNOR, Jaylen rush to the right for a gain of 14 yards to the ASU43 (SIPP JR., Joseph), out of bounds. PENALTY ASU Holding on SMITH, Tristian enforced 10 yards from the ASU29 to the ASU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+13
62.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 13 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
62.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
61.4%
Ryan Heicher punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:2259% → 67%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
59.0%
Justin Pegues run for 2 yds to the BGSU 25Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
58.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+26
57.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 26 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
60.4%
Terion Stewart run for 16 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
61.3%
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 35Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+5
60.9%
Arkansas State Penalty, Offsides (Tim Hardiman) to the ARST 30Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
61.3%
Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+19
60.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 19 yds to the ARST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
66.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 8 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
5 plays · 93 yds · 2:3036% → 48%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
63.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 11Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+3
63.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 14Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+4
64.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 4 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
63.2%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 21Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+79
52.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 79 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3752% → 65%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
51.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 23 yds to the BGSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
54.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 21 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
55.6%
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+23
55.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 23 yds to the ARST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
55.6%
Arkansas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Justin Hodges) to the ARST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4241% → 40%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 7 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-4
57.6%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Joseph Sipp Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
59.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Jordan Oladokun return for 2 yds to the BGSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:3761% → 61%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
61.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
56.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 4 yds to the BGSU 40Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+14
56.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 14 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
60.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 22 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
61.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 3 yds to the ARST 21Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+39
61.1%
Zach Long 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
57.4%
[NH] Kneel down by RAYNOR, Jaylen at ASU19 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
61.4%
Terion Stewart run for 4 yds to the BGSU 34 Terion Stewart fumbled, recovered by ARST Noah Collins N. Collins return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 3:1944% → 59%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
55.8%
Reagan Ealy pass complete to Jaylen Raynor for 11 yds to the BGSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
55.5%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Brock Horne for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 24Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+10
55.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 10 yds to the BGSU 14Similar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+4
56.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the BGSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
55.5%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the BGSU 6Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 5:0743% → 46%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
42.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 7 yds to the BGSU 32Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
44.1%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BGSU 34Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
43.2%
Harold Fannin Jr. run for 8 yds to the BGSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
44.7%
Jaison Patterson run for no gain to the BGSU 42Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
44.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+25
43.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 25 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
47.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
47.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 6 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+7
45.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 7 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
47.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
47.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
45.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
45.9%
Zach Long 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2858% → 59%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
41.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
42.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 12 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
40.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
41.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 2 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
41.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
41.5%
Ryan Heicher punt for 35 yds , Justin Pegues returns for no gain to the BGSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2744% → 40%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
44.0%
Justin Pegues run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 28Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+5
43.4%
Arkansas State Penalty, Offsides (Kamari Stephens) to the BGSU 33Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
44.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
43.1%
Connor Bazelak run for no gain to the BGSU 33Similar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+4
40.4%
John Henderson run for 4 yds to the BGSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18MISSED FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0366% → 65%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
34.5%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 38Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+18
34.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the BGSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
33.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
33.9%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the BGSU 16Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
34.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
35.4%
Clune Van Andel 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19MISSED FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:5241% → 30%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
40.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 3 yds to the BGSU 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
37.3%
Rahkeem Smith run for 5 yds to the BGSU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+6
36.9%
Jamal Johnson run for 6 yds to the BGSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
38.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 15 yds to the BGSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
41.5%
Jamal Johnson run for 2 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+6
42.3%
Jamal Johnson run for 6 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
42.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+35
39.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 35 yds fumbled, recovered by BGSU Harold Fannin Jr. H. Fannin Jr. return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
44.5%
Rahkeem Smith run for 4 yds to the ARST 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
44.5%
Bowling Green Penalty, False Start (Nate Pabst) to the ARST 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
44.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
42.2%
Bowling Green Penalty, False Start (Harold Fannin Jr.) to the ARST 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
39.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
30.3%
Zach Long 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3474% → 73%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
26.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
25.9%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Ali Saad for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 18Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
27.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+3
26.6%
Ryan Heicher punt for 54 yds , Justin Pegues returns for 3 yds to the BGSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5231% → 26%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
30.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
30.4%
Justin Pegues run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 30Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
28.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
25.6%
John Henderson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 4:4377% → 97%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
22.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 4 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
21.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
21.1%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
20.5%
Zak Wallace run for 26 yds to the BGSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
19.1%
Zak Wallace run for 7 yds to the BGSU 23Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+8
18.9%
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the BGSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
18.9%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the BGSU 14Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
3.3%
Zak Wallace run for 14 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:175% → 28%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
4.6%
BAZELAK, Connor pass short to the right incomplete intended for GAZAREK, Levi thrown to the ASU35. PENALTY BGSU Holding on FATUKASI, Tunde enforced 10 yards from the ASU38 to the ASU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+4
4.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 4 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+7
3.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 7 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+6
3.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 6 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+8
3.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 8 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
27.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 23 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:3595% → 97%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
5.1%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
5.0%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the BGSU 47Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+19
4.5%
Zak Wallace run for 19 yds to the BGSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
3.5%
[NH] Kneel down by RAYNOR, Jaylen at BGSU30 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:42
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 23 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)
+24
TD · Q4 3:10
Zak Wallace run for 14 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q3 11:21
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
-14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com